The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, August 15, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 38-20 (+19.58 units, ROI: 33.8%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-137 at CIN) 

Trend: Under the total is 27-11 (+14.90 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trend: Under the total is 30-15-2 (+13.50 units) when SD is a ML underdog this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-LAD (o/u at 9) 

CHICAGO WHITE SOX letdown in next game after series vs. DETROIT: 10-22 (31.3%) -12.08 units, ROI: -37.8%  
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+146 at KC) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 333-290 but for -79.17 units and an ROI of -12.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-168 vs. MIA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 173-109 for +45.06 units and an ROI of 16%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This has continually proven to be a good foundational angle to follow, as prices are typically not that high.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-112 at TOR)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 51-46 for -6.81 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -7% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): WASHINGTON (+158 vs PHI)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 130-175 for -45.61 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up. This angle is 27-43 for -15.06 units since ASB.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-119 vs ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+147 at KC), ST LOUIS (+113 vs NYY), SAN DIEGO (+149 at LAD), TAMPA BAY (+108 at SF)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 282-161 for +26.60 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-137 at CIN), PHILADELPHIA (-194 at WSH), TEXAS (-112 at TOR), SEATTLE (+102 at NYM), HOUSTON (-231 vs BAL)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 115-212 for -33.04 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.1%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+112 vs DET), BALTIMORE (+186 at HOU), COLORADO (+158 vs AZ) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 86-43 for -10.22 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red, and we are again!
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-194 at WSH), CHICAGO CUBS (-206 vs PIT), HOUSTON (-231 vs BAL) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 112-35 for +24.23 units, an ROI of 16.5%.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-195 at COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 72-29 for +7.06 units. Still, after a 2-2 week for -2.25 units, we remain very close to going into the usual negative territory.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-206 vs PIT) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. This season’s record stands at 336-341 for +48.47 units, ROI +7.2%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+102 at NYM), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+147 at KC), ST LOUIS (+113 vs NYY), SAN DIEGO (+149 at LAD), TAMPA BAY (+108 at SF) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 149-162 for -9.79 units (ROI -3.1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 74-71, -2.53 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI (+112 vs MIL), WASHINGTON (+158 vs PHI), ATLANTA (-102 at CLE), BALTIMORE (+186 at HOU) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 137-196 for -28.12 units, an ROI of -8.4%. Although last year it was about -1% ROI, this year’s loss ROI makes it an angle I want to keep tracking, and we will do so going forward.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+167 at CHC), LA DODGERS (-182 vs SD), SAN FRANCISCO (-132 vs TB) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and after a huge month-long run of +23.36 units, it is now 190-137 for +22.93 units (ROI 7%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-137 at CIN), ARIZONA (-195 at COL), LA ANGELS (-119 at ATH), SAN DIEGO (+149 at LAD)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star breal 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): TORONTO, CLEVELAND, SEATTLE, SAN FRANCISCO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, CLEVELAND, SEATTLE, NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-CHC, MIL-CIN, DET-MIN, CWS-KC 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 409-318 for +49.19 units and an ROI of 6.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-137 at CIN), LA ANGELS (-119 at ATH), SAN DIEGO (+149 at LAD) 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 197-144 for +21.10 units and an ROI of 6.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-112 at TOR), LA ANGELS (-119 at ATH)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 120-157 for -34.87 units and an ROI of -12.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+112 vs MIL), TORONTO (-108 vs TEX), ST LOUIS (+113 vs NYY), ATHLETICS (-102 vs LAA) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 333-290 but for -79.17 units and an ROI of -12.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-168 vs MIA) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 364-313 record for +46.90 units and an ROI of 6.9% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-137 at CIN), LA ANGELS (-119 at ATH), SAN DIEGO (+149 at LAD), TAMPA BAY (+108 at SF) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game. 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1895-1801 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -256.84 units. This represents an ROI of -6.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-144 at CIN), CLEVELAND (-123 vs ATL) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1897-2404 (44.1%) for -212.49 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-194 at WSH), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+146 at KC), NY YANKEES (-137 at STL) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3845-3366 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -513.99 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+118 vs MIL), CLEVELAND (-123 vs ATL), KANSAS CITY (-179 vs CWS), ST LOUIS (+113 vs NYY), LA DODGERS (-182 vs SD) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 166-132 (+12.81 units, ROI: 4.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+149 at LAD) 

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 31-63 (-7.52 units, ROI: -8%) in their last 94 tries.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+149 at LAD) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 120-125 (-53.63 units, ROI: -21.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-137 at CIN) 

Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 38-20 (+19.58 units, ROI: 33.8%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-137 at CIN) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE +186 (+26), SAN DIEGO +149 (+18), SEATTLE +102 (+17), PITTSBURGH +167 (+15) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -194 (+27), TEXAS -112 (+21), ARIZONA -195 (+19) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIA-BOS OVER 8.5 (+0.9), BAL-HOU OVER 7.5 (+0.8), TEX-TOR OVER 7.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SD-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) PITTSBURGH (51-71) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (68-52)
Trend: Under the total is 29-20-1 (+7.00 units) in Pirates’ day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CHC (o/u at 9) 

(953) MILWAUKEE (76-44) at (954) CINCINNATI (64-58)
Trend: MIL is 43-24 (+18.31 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-137 at CIN)

(955) PHILADELPHIA (69-52) at (956) WASHINGTON (49-72)
Trend: Under the total is 38-20-5 (+16.00 units) in Phillies’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 8)

Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 9-21 (-11.17 units) vs NL East opponents in his career
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+158 vs PHI) 

(959) SAN DIEGO (69-52) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (68-53)
Trend: Under the total is 27-11 (+14.90 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trend: Under the total is 30-15-2 (+13.50 units) when SD is a ML underdog this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-LAD (o/u at 9) 

(961) TEXAS (61-61) at (962) TORONTO (71-51)
Trend: TEX is 2-9 (-8.44 units) in the last 11 night games as a -130 favorite or less with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-112 at TOR)

Trend: TOR is 40-20 (+14.29 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-108 vs TEX) 

(963) BALTIMORE (55-66) at (964) HOUSTON (68-53)
Trend: Under the total is 38-20-3 (+16.00 units) in Orioles’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-HOU (o/u at 7.5) 

(965) DETROIT (71-52) at (966) MINNESOTA (57-64)
Trend: Under the total is 16-5-2 (+10.55 units) when Charlie Morton is a -134 favorite or higher since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-MIN (o/u at 9.5) 

(967) CHICAGO-AL (44-77) at (968) KANSAS CITY (60-61)
Trend: CWS is 18-41 (-13.21 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+146 at KC)

(969) LOS ANGELES-AL (59-62) at (970) ATHLETICS (54-69)
Trend: LAA is 47-38 (+19.68 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-119 at ATH) 

(971) MIAMI (58-63) at (972) BOSTON (66-56)
Trend: Lucas Giolito is 13-19 in his last 32 games against the NL (-8.05 units)
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-168 vs MIA) 

(975) SEATTLE (67-55) at (976) NEW YORK-NL (64-57)
Trend: SEA is 24-35 (-14.04 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at NYM)

Trend: Luis Castillo is 4-14 (-9.92 units) as a shorter road underdog (-105 to +120) in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+102 at NYM)

Trend: Under the total is 20-9-2 (+10.10 units) when SEA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-NYM (o/u at 8.5) 

(977) NEW YORK-AL (64-57) at (978) ST LOUIS (61-61)
Trend: Over the total is 9-3-1 (+5.75 units) against AL teams with starter Andre Pallante since the start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYY-STL (o/u at 8.5) 

(979) TAMPA BAY (59-63) at (980) SAN FRANCISCO (59-62)
Trend: Under the total is 52-30-2 (+19.00 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-SF (o/u at 8)

Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Fri 8/15-Sun 8/17
Trend: PITTSBURGH is 10-22 (31.3%, -9.49 units) in their last 32 games at Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -29.7%
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+167 at CHC)

Trend: Over the total is on a 22-12-1 (64.7%, +8.88 units) run in the Pirates-Cubs head-to-head series since September 2022.
– The ROI on this trend is 26.1%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-PIT (o/u at 9) 

Series #23: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City, Fri 8/15-Sun 8/17
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 18-3 (85.7%, +14.25 units) versus the Chicago White Sox.
– The ROI on this trend is 67.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-179 vs CWS) 

Series #26: Milwaukee at Cincinnati, Fri 8/15-Sun 8/17
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 29-10 (74.4%, +17.93 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 46%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-137 at CIN) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

ATLANTA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 15-20 (44.1%) -10.12 units, ROI: -28.9%    
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-102 at CLE)

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Letdown after series vs. DETROIT: 10-22 (31.3%) -12.08 units, ROI: -37.8%    
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+146 at KC) 

SAN DIEGO  
Momentum after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 22-11 (66.7%) +12.59 units, ROI: 38.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+149 at LAD)

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