Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, August 22, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 368-239 for +82.59 units, an ROI of 13.6%!
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-144 vs STL)
NYM letdown in the next game after series vs. WSH: 11-21 (34.4%) -19.28 units, ROI: -60.3%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-101 at ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 30-11 (+17.90 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-SD (o/u at 8)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 338-295 but for -81.02 units and an ROI of -12.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-156 vs CLE), MILWAUKEE (-167 vs SF)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 179-112 for +47.59 units, and an ROI of 16.4%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-144 vs STL)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 53-49 for -8.17 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -8% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): NY YANKEES (-188 vs BOS)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 136-186 for -49.09 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15.2%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up. This angle is 33-54 for -18.54 units since the All-Star break.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-106 at BAL), MIAMI (+138 vs TOR), ATLANTA (-121 vs NYM), ST LOUIS (+118 at TB), ATHLETICS (+178 at SEA)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 122-217 for -26.28 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -7.8%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+160 at PIT), WASHINGTON (+157 at PHI)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 94-47 for -11.12 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red, and we are again!
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-198 vs COL), PHILADELPHIA (-193 vs WSH)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 and ‘24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are still unusually positive, 74-30 for +7.12 units. Still, after a 4-3 two weeks for -2.19 units, we remain very close to going into the usual negative territory.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-193 vs WSH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in ’25. This season’s record stands at 351-365 for +40.28 units, ROI +5.6%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-106 at BAL), BOSTON (+153 at NYY), MIAMI (+138 vs TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+113 vs MIN), CLEVELAND (+128 at TEX), CINCINNATI (+112 at AZ), SAN DIEGO (+103 vs LAD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 159-166 for -2.72 units (ROI -0.8%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – WASHINGTON (+157 at PHI), ARIZONA (-136 vs CIN)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 146-202 for -23.06 units, an ROI of -6.6%. Although last year it was about -1% ROI, this year’s loss ROI makes it an angle I want to keep tracking, and we will do so going forward.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-137 at CWS), SAN FRANCISCO (+136 at MIL), SEATTLE (-220 vs ATH)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 196-147 for +13.24 units (ROI 3.9%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-193 vs WSH), DETROIT (-149 vs KC), SAN DIEGO (+103 vs LAD), ATHLETICS (+178 at SEA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of the All-Star break, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): NY METS, MINNESOTA, CINCINNATI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, TEXAS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHC-LAA, CIN-AZ
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 413-324 for +44.62 units and an ROI of 6.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-193 vs WSH), DETROIT (-149 vs KC), SAN DIEGO (+103 vs LAD), ATHLETICS (+183 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 199-145 for +21.96 units and an ROI of 6.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-125 at SD)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 121-160 for -36.88 units and an ROI of -13.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+103 vs LAD)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 338-295 but for -81.02 units and an ROI of -12.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-156 vs CLE), MILWAUKEE (-167 vs SF)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 370-316 record for +50.10 units and an ROI of 7.3% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-125 at SD), KANSAS CITY (+123 at DET), WASHINGTON (+157 at PHI)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1909-1810 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -254.03 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-193 vs WSH), LA DODGERS (-125 at SD), WASHINGTON (+157 at PHI)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,909-2,418 (44.1%) for -213.95 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-169 at MIA), CLEVELAND (+128 at TEX), CINCINNATI (+112 at AZ), CHICAGO CUBS (-157 at LAA)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3868-3386 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -514.81 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-193 vs WSH), DETROIT (-149 vs KC), MIAMI (+138 vs TOR), SAN DIEGO (+103 vs LAD)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 569-474 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.26 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+113 vs MIN)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 318-281 (53.1%) for +24.02 units and an ROI of 4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-227 vs ATH)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATHLETICS +183 (+40 diff), MIAMI +138 (+16), CINCINNATI +112 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -125 (+37 diff), PHILADELPHIA -193 (+25), MILWAUKEE -167 (+25), PITTSBURGH -198 (+17), TEXAS -156 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-ATL OVER 8.5 (+0.8), TOR-MIA OVER 8 (+0.5), MIN-CWS OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-TB UNDER 9 (-1.0), HOU-BAL UNDER 9.5 (-0.9), CIN-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) WASHINGTON (52-75) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (74-53)
Trend: Taijuan Walker is 22-8 (+8.59 units) as a home favorite of -130 or higher in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-193 vs WSH)
(905) NEW YORK-NL (67-60) at (906) ATLANTA (58-69)
Trend: ATL is 47-47 (-28.95 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-121 vs NYM)
(907) SAN FRANCISCO (61-67) at (908) MILWAUKEE (80-48)
Trend: SF is 13-22 (-15.47 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend: MIL is 26-13 (+14.88 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-167 vs SF)
(909) CINCINNATI (67-61) at (910) ARIZONA (62-66)
Trend: Under the total is 15-6 (+8.35 units) when Zach Littell faces teams with a <= 0.500 win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-AZ (o/u at 9)
Trend: AZ is 8-2 (+5.55 units) as a home favorite with starter Ryne Nelson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-136 vs CIN)
(911) LOS ANGELES-NL (73-55) at (912) SAN DIEGO (72-56)
Trend: LAD is 30-31 (-16.69 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-125 at SD)
Trend: Under the total is 30-11 (+17.90 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-SD (o/u at 8)
(913) BOSTON (69-59) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (69-58)
Trend: BOS is 18-16 (+4.04 units) against divisional teams with starter Brayan Bello
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BOSTON (+153 at NYY)
(915) HOUSTON (70-58) at (916) BALTIMORE (59-68)
Trend: HOU has been a solid bet as a ML underdog this season (20-14 record, +11.34 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-106 at BAL)
(921) CLEVELAND (64-62) at (922) TEXAS (63-66)
Trend: Under the total is 40-22-1 (+15.80 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TEX (o/u at 7.5)
(923) ATHLETICS (59-70) at (924) SEATTLE (68-60)
Trend: Over the total is 55-34-4 (+17.60 units) when SEA faces RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATH-SEA (o/u at 8)
Trend: SEA is 16-4 (+10.63 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-227 vs ATH)
(925) TORONTO (74-54) at (926) MIAMI (60-67)
Trend: MIA is 58-31 (+18.92 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 vs TOR)
(927) ST LOUIS (64-65) at (928) TAMPA BAY (61-67)
Trend: TB is 24-41 (-21.37 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs STL)
(929) CHICAGO-NL (73-55) at (930) LOS ANGELES-AL (61-66)
Trend: Over the total is 37-26-3 (+8.40 units) in Angels’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-LAA (o/u at 9.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #15: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox, Fri 8/22-Sun 8/24
Trend: Favorites are on a 24-4 (85.7%, +16.21 units) run in the White Sox-Twins AL Central rivalry.
– The ROI on this trend is 57.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-137 at CWS)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NY METS
Letdown after series vs. WASHINGTON: 11-21 (34.4%) -19.28 units, ROI: -60.3%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-101 at ATL)
SAN DIEGO
Momentum after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 22-12 (64.7%) +11.59 units, ROI: 34.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+103 vs LAD)
