The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, July 25, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 17-4 (+9.80 units) at home vs. teams with a < 48% win percentage in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-151 vs. ATL) 

Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 337-171 (66.3%) for +42.40 units and an ROI of 8.3%!
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-114 vs. CLE) 

Trend: Under the total is 36-20-2 (+14.00 units) when CIN is an ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CIN (o/u at 9.5)

Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 239-248 run (+17.28 units, ROI: 3.5%).
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+104 vs. SEA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 133-84 for +36.63 units, and an ROI of 16.9%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%. This is proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+100 vs. LAD), TAMPA BAY (-108 at CIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-136 vs. NYM) 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 41-39 for -7.97 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -10% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): WASHINGTON (+137 at MIN)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 113-144 for -34.77 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+178 at MIL), ST LOUIS (+107 vs. SD), HOUSTON (-144 vs ATH)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 246-123 for +50.26 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.6%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-220 vs. MIA), SAN DIEGO (-131 at STL), CHICAGO CUBS (-180 at CWS), TEXAS (-151 vs. ATL)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 99-191 for -37.92 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.1%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+167 at BAL) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 74-30 for +6.25 units. This remains a winning first half angle, although we are still very close to going red.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-220 vs. MIA), BALTIMORE (-206 vs. COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are still unusually positive, 68-27 for +7.25 units. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-206 vs. COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 285-290 for +33.41 units, ROI +5.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-105 vs. AZ), PHILADELPHIA (+129 at NYY), BOSTON (+100 vs. LAD), TAMPA BAY (-108 at CIN), TORONTO (-106 at DET), CLEVELAND (-106 at KC), LA ANGELS (+104 vs. SEA) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 130-141 for -10.08 units (ROI -3.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 68-65, -0.26 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – MIAMI (+178 at MIL), COLORADO (+167 at BAL)
3+ games – NY METS (+112 at SF) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and it is now 154-117 for +9.43 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-105 vs. AZ), TEXAS (-151 vs. ATL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): TAMPA BAY, LA DODGERS, CLEVELAND, SAN FRANCISCO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their best overall in divisional games since the start of 2024, going 670-692 (49.2%) for -27.82 units and an ROI of -2.0%. This is about five full percentage points better for return. If you’re looking for a spot where these majorities are even better, try getting behind them when they back the underdogs in these divisional contests. In those games, these have gone 95-106 (47.3%) for -0.62 units and an ROI of -0.3%. This advantage is even greater and an indication that bettors do well when going against the grain.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): HOUSTON, CLEVELAND, SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, LA DODGERS, CHICAGO CUBS, TEXAS, MINNESOTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in 2025. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in Juky games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and a ROI of -13.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 399-306 for +53.44 units and a ROI of 7.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-105 vs. AZ), TEXAS (-156 vs. ATL), NY METS (+112 at SF) 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 194-140 for +22.96 units and an ROI of 6.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-116 at PIT), LA DODGERS (-122 at BOS) 

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 117-155 for -35.89 units and a ROI of -13.2% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-105 vs. AZ) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 318-280 but for -79.65 units and an ROI of -12.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-162 vs. PHI), CINCINNATI (-112 vs. TB), KANSAS CITY (-114 vs. CLE), MINNESOTA (-167 vs. WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (-136 vs. NYM) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 355-297 record for +56.45 units and an ROI of 8.7% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+167 at BAL), NY METS (+112 at SF)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 406-389 (51.1%) for +22.70 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.9%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-114 vs. TOR) 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1862-1769 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.44 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, TAMPA BAY, TORONTO, ST LOUIS, SAN FRANCISCO 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1858-2359 (44%) for -209.03 units and a ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+137 at MIN)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3767-3311 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -522.34 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, PITTSBURGH, CINCINNATI, KANSAS CITY, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, SAN FRANCISCO 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 337-171 (66.3%) for +42.40 units and an ROI of 8.3%!
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-114 vs. CLE)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 239-248 run (+17.28 units, ROI: 3.5%).
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+104 vs. SEA)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: WASHINGTON +137 (+19 diff) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS -151 (+32 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -180 (+20), ARIZONA -116 (+18) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LAD-BOS OVER 9.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: AZ-PIT UNDER 9 (-0.5), COL-BAL UNDER 9.5 (-0.5) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) MIAMI (48-53) at (902) MILWAUKEE (61-41)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 24-26 (+12.78 units) as an underdog of +135 or more in L5 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+178 at MIL)

Trend: OVER the total is 9-2-1 (+6.90 units) when MIL is a -180 favorite or higher with starter Freddy Peralta since start of ’24 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-MIL (o/u at 8) 

(903) ARIZONA (50-53) at (904) PITTSBURGH (42-61)
Trend: AZ hasn’t been good at NIGHT (31-35, -13.87 units)
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-116 at PIT)

(905) SAN DIEGO (55-48) at (906) ST LOUIS (53-51)
Trend: STL is 30-20 (+7.83 units) in HOME games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+107 vs SD) 

(907) NEW YORK-NL (59-44) at (908) SAN FRANCISCO (54-49)
Trend: UNDER the total is 15-8 (+6.20 units) when NYM is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-SF (o/u at 7.5) 

(913) CLEVELAND (51-51) at (914) KANSAS CITY (50-53)
Trend: KC is 8-2 (+6.33 units) in HOME DIVISIONAL games with starter Michael Wacha since start of ’24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-114 vs CLE) 

(915) SEATTLE (55-48) at (916) LOS ANGELES-AL (49-54)
Trend: OVER the total is 9-3 (+5.75 units) in L12 games when SEA is a ROAD favorite with starter Bryan Woo
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-LAA (o/u at 8.5) 

(917) PHILADELPHIA (58-44) at (918) NEW YORK-AL (56-46)
Trend: UNDER the total is 10-5 (+4.50 units) when PHI is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYY (o/u at 10) 

(919) COLORADO (26-76) at (920) BALTIMORE (45-57)
Trend: COL is 9-25 (-10.00 units) in L34 games on the ROAD with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+167 at BAL)

Trend: BAL is 33-13 (+16.88 units) in L46 HOME games with starter Dean Kremer
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-206 vs COL) 

(921) TAMPA BAY (53-50) at (922) CINCINNATI (53-50)
Trend: UNDER the total is 36-20-2 (+14.00 units) when CIN is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CIN (o/u at 9.5) 

(925) CHICAGO-NL (60-42) at (926) CHICAGO-AL (37-66)
Trend: CHC is 26-4 (+20.73 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since start of ’24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-180 at CWS)

Trend: Adrian Houser is 7-19 (-10.09 units) as a NIGHT underdog of +100 or worse in L6 seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+147 vs CHC)

(927) ATLANTA (44-57) at (928) TEXAS (53-50)
Trend: ATL is worst team to bet on the ROAD this season (18-31 record, -23.48 units)
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+124 at TEX)

Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 17-4 (+9.80 units) at HOME vs teams with a < 48% win pct in L6 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-151 vs ATL)

(929) WASHINGTON (41-61) at (930) MINNESOTA (49-53)
Trend: MIN is 6-12 (-8.34 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-167 vs WSH)

Series #1: Athletics at Houston, Thu 7/24-Sun 7/27
Trend: The Athletics are 12-28 (30%, -8.20 units) in their last 40 games vs. Houston
–  The ROI on this trend is -20.5%.
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+121 at HOU) 

Series #14: San Diego at St Louis, Thu 7/24-Sun 7/27
Trend: Home teams are 17-6 (73.9%, +9.84 units) in the last 23 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 42.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+107 vs. SD)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Thursday, July 31)

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