The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, September 12, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NY METS letdown in follow-up game after series vs. PHI: 12-23 (34.3%) -17.93 units, ROI: -51.2% 
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-113 vs TEX) 

* Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 379-253 for +77.72 units, an ROI of 12.3%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+113 at TOR), BOSTON (+104 vs NYY) 

Trend: LAD is 16-5 (+9.11 units) as a smaller favorite within -115 to -165 line range with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-164 at SF) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 351-305 but for -82.10 units and an ROI of -12.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-169 vs TB), WASHINGTON (-113 vs PIT), NY METS (-113 vs TEX), MINNESOTA (-144 vs AZ)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 190-126 for +42.72 units, and an ROI of +13.5%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+113 at TOR), BOSTON (+104 vs NYY)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 61-60 for -15.13 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -12.5% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): MINNESOTA (-144 vs AZ)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 165-209 for -45.99 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.3%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+113 at PHI), CLEVELAND (-151 vs CWS), ST LOUIS (+158 at MIL), SAN DIEGO (-275 vs COL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 323-196 for +14.98 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +2.9%. However, this angle has cooled off dramatically over the last few weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-169 vs TB), BALTIMORE (+113 at TOR), TEXAS (-108 at NYM), LA DODGERS (-164 at SF)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 132-245 for -37.00 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.8%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-113 vs PIT), COLORADO (+218 at SD) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 106-52 for -10.48 units. We have been hovering the red for about a month now, like usual.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-197 at MIA), MILWAUKEE (-194 vs STL)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a strong start, 124-42 for +18.61 units, an ROI of +11.2%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-275 vs COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 and ‘24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are still unusually positive, 78-35 for +1.19 units. September is typically a month where we see more of these plays qualifying daily due to favorite overpricing.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-275 vs COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in ’25. It is doing just that, bringing the season record to 406-433 for +43.13 units, ROI +5.1%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+113 at PHI), PITTSBURGH (-107 at WSH), BALTIMORE (+113 at TOR), BOSTON (+104 vs NYY), TEXAS (-108 at NYM), HOUSTON (-102 at ATL), ARIZONA (+118 at MIN)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 186-188 for +4.42 units (ROI 1.2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 94-91, -1.08 units for the year.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 at CLE), MIAMI (+160 vs DET), CINCINNATI (-105 at ATH)
3+ games – PHILADELPHIA (-137 vs KC) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 175-234 for -19.79 units, an ROI of -4.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-113 vs TEX), ST LOUIS (+158 at MIL), COLORADO (+216 at SD) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 221-175 for +3.99 units (ROI 1%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+113 at TOR), TEXAS (-108 at NYM), SEATTLE (-189 vs LAA), LA DODGERS (-164 at SF)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): PITTSBURGH, BOSTON, TEXAS, HOUSTON, ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, TEXAS, ATLANTA, ARIZONA, CINCINNATI

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-ATH

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 425-336 for +39.39 units and an ROI of 5.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-137 vs KC), BALTIMORE (+113 at TOR), TEXAS (-108 at NYM), LA DODGERS (-164 at SF) 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 204-152 for +18.26 units and an ROI of 5.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-127 at BOS) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 351-305 but for -82.10 units and an ROI of -12.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-169 vs TB), WASHINGTON (-113 vs PIT), NY METS (-113 vs TEX), MINNESOTA (-144 vs AZ)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 381-325 record for +53.04 units and an ROI of 7.5% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-127 at BOS), TEXAS (-108 at NYM), LA DODGERS (-164 at SF) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1954-1844 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -248.41 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-127 at BOS), LA DODGERS (-164 at SF)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1944-2463 (44.1%) for -221.38 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+138 at CHC), PITTSBURGH (-103 at WSH), KANSAS CITY (+113 at PHI), ST LOUIS (+154 at MIL), HOUSTON (+100 at ATL), CINCINNATI (-103 at ATH), COLORADO (+218 at SD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3938-3436 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -510.69 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-137 vs BAL), MIAMI (+160 vs DET), PHILADELPHIA (-137 vs KC), SEATTLE (-189 vs LAA), ATHLETICS (-119 vs CIN) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 580-481 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.22 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-113 vs PIT) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 255-263 run (+16.64 units, ROI: 3.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-107 at WSH), NY METS (-113 vs TEX)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 126-129 (-54.19 units, ROI: -21.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-164 at SF) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +218 (+25 diff), BOSTON +104 (+21), LA ANGELS +154 (+19) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT -197 (+40 diff), ATHLETICS -115 (+17), MILWAUKEE -194 (+16) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-WSH OVER 8 (+0.8), LAA-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.7), CWS-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CIN-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-1.0)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) PITTSBURGH (64-83) at (952) WASHINGTON (60-86)
Trend: PIT is 22-50 (-23.23 units) in road games this season
Trend: PIT is 12-20 (-7.82 units) vs NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last six seasons
Trends Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-107 at WSH)

Trend: WSH is 9-22 (-18.68 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-113 vs PIT) 

(953) ST LOUIS (72-75) at (954) MILWAUKEE (89-58)
Trend: MIL is 46-26 (+11.38 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-194 vs STL) 

(955) COLORADO (40-107) at (956) SAN DIEGO (80-67)
Trend: COL is 6-33 (-23.02 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+216 at SD) 

(957) LOS ANGELES-NL (82-64) at (958) SAN FRANCISCO (74-72)
Trend: LAD is 16-5 (+9.11 units) as a smaller favorite within -115 to -165 line range with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: Justin Verlander is 3-10 (-11.18 units) at home against NL teams with a winning record in L6 seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-164 at SF) 

(959) BALTIMORE (69-77) at (960) TORONTO (84-62)
Trend: TOR is 22-13 (+10.22 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-137 vs BAL) 

(965) LOS ANGELES-AL (69-78) at (966) SEATTLE (79-68)
Trend: LAA is 53-52 (+12.17 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+154 at SEA) 

(969) KANSAS CITY (74-73) at (970) PHILADELPHIA (87-60)
Trend: Walker Buehler is just 9-11 (-5.56 units) as a short favorite (in line range -120 to -145) since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-137 vs KC) 

(971) DETROIT (84-63) at (972) MIAMI (68-79)
Trend: Tarik Skubal is 22-5 (+12.72 units) in his last 27 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-197 at MIA)

Trend: Over the total is 52-36-2 (+12.40 units) in Tigers’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-MIA (o/u at 7) 

(973) TEXAS (77-70) at (974) NEW YORK-NL (76-71)
Trend: TEX is 2-11 (-10.73 units) in the last 13 night games as a -130 favorite or less (including underdog) with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-108 at NYM) 

(975) HOUSTON (79-68) at (976) ATLANTA (65-81)
Trend: ATL is 29-43 (-15.88 units) on the run line at home this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+1.5 vs HOU) 

(977) ARIZONA (73-74) at (978) MINNESOTA (64-82)
Trend: MIN is 48-53 (-24.65 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-144 vs AZ) 

(979) CINCINNATI (74-72) at (980) ATHLETICS (67-80)
Trend: Under the total is 54-30-7 (+21.00 units) in Reds’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-ATH (o/u at 10.5) 

Series #6: Chi White Sox at Cleveland, Fri 9/12-Sun 9/14
Trend: UNDER the total is 17-8 (68%, +8.14 units) in the last 25 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 32.6%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 7.5) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

ARIZONA 
Letdown after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 7-17 (29.2%) -10.38 units, ROI: -43.3%
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+118 at MIN) 

MIAMI    
Momentum after series vs. WASHINGTON: 19-17 (52.8%) +8.90 units, ROI: 24.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+160 vs DET) 

NY METS 
Letdown after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 12-23 (34.3%) -17.93 units, ROI: -51.2%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-113 vs TEX) 

PHILADELPHIA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 17-19 (47.2%) -6.15 units, ROI: -17.1%     
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-137 vs KC)

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