Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, September 19, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: SF is 8-0 (+10.00 units) in road night games with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+151 at LAD)
Trend: Dylan Cease is 13-3 (+6.77 units) in the last six seasons as a large road favorite (-170 or higher)
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-194 at CWS)
Trend: Cleveland has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 33-13 (71.7%, +22.07 units).
– The ROI on this trend is 48%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-105 at MIN)
* Since the start of the 2025 regular season, teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 183-248 for -23.51 units, an ROI of -5.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-109 vs ATH), DETROIT (-121 vs ATL), WASHINGTON (+176 at NYM), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 vs SD), COLORADO (+101 vs LAA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 197-133 for +43.30 units, and an ROI of +13.1%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+102 vs NYY)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 65-63 for -14.22 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -11.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): MINNESOTA (-115 vs CLE)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 171-220 for -46.75 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12%. Even though we’ve lost some steam on fading these teams lately, it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+109 vs TOR)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 338-203 for +23.71 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-114 at CIN), SEATTLE (-111 at HOU), ST LOUIS (+101 vs MIL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 140-256 for -36.39 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.2%!
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+101 vs LAA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 112-55 for -10.38 units (ROI of -6.2%). We have been hovering in the red for over a month now, like usual.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-218 vs WSH), SAN DIEGO (-194 at CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams finally went negative this past week, 79-37 for -2.54 units for the season. I indicated a couple of weeks ago that September is typically a month where we see more of these plays qualifying daily due to favorite overpricing. So far this month, these qualifiers are 2-5 for -8.62 units!
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-218 vs WSH), SAN DIEGO (-194 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, having a season record of 429-462 for +42.74 units, ROI +4.8%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-101 at DET), BALTIMORE (+102 vs NYY), KANSAS CITY (+109 vs TOR), CLEVELAND (-105 at MIN), PHILADELPHIA (+104 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, after a strangely strong two-week surge, they are 205-201 for +12.94 units (ROI 3.2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so this year’s results are eye-opening, now 100-95, +0.47 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI (-107 vs CHC), TAMPA BAY (+109 vs BOS)
3+ games – NY YANKEES (-124 at BAL), MIAMI (+129 at TEX), HOUSTON (-109 vs SEA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the ’25 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 183-248 for -23.51 units, an ROI of -5.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-109 vs ATH), DETROIT (-121 vs ATL), WASHINGTON (+176 at NYM), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 vs SD), COLORADO (+101 vs LAA)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and it has recovered from a slow start to post a current record of 237-184 for +13.88 units (ROI 3.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-101 at DET), CLEVELAND (-105 at MIN), MILWAUKEE (-122 at STL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Stat break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS, ATLANTA, SAN DIEGO, MIAMI, LA ANGELS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-KC, PHI-AZ
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 431-340 for +41.40 units and an ROI of 5.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-101 at DET), MIAMI (+129 at TEX), CLEVELAND (-105 at MIN), HOUSTON (-111 vs SEA), MILWAUKEE (-121 at STL)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 207-153 for +20.13 units and an ROI of 5.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (-115 at PIT), LA ANGELS (-119 at COL), MILWAUKEE (-122 at STL)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 127-165 for -35.62 units and an ROI of -12.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-105 vs ATH), TAMPA BAY (+109 vs BOS), KANSAS CITY (+109 vs TOR), ST LOUIS (+101 vs MIL), COLORADO (-102 vs LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 356-309 but for -82.08 units and an ROI of -12.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (-158 vs MIA)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 388-328 record for +56.83 units and an ROI of 7.9% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-101 at DET), MIAMI (+129 at TEX)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 428-408 (51.2%) for +24.09 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.9%.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+102 vs NYY)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1966-1854 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -248.70 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+129 at TEX)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1952-2483 (44%) for -234.05 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-117 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (-190 at CWS), TORONTO (-132 at KC), SEATTLE (-109 at HOU), LA ANGELS (-119 at COL), PHILADELPHIA (+104 at AZ), SAN FRANCISCO (+140 at LAD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3964-3458 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -510.52 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-218 vs WSH), MINNESOTA (-115 vs CLE), HOUSTON (-111 vs SEA), COLORADO (-102 vs LAA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 582-482 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +29.22 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+102 vs NYY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-21 (+10.01 units, ROI: 25.7%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 90-170 (-58.55 units, ROI: -22.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-119 at COL)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 257-269 run (+14.88 units, ROI: 3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-105 vs ATH), TEXAS (-158 vs MIA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+155 vs SD)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 73-63 (+14.54 units, ROI: 10.7%) in their last 136 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-101 at DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 172-142 (+9.03 units, ROI: 2.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-101 at DET), CLEVELAND (-105 at MIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +176 (+25 diff), BALTIMORE +102 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS -123 (+50 diff), MILWAUKEE -122 (+23), DETROIT -121 (+18)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.9), ATH-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), PHI-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) CHICAGO-NL (88-65) at (902) CINCINNATI (77-76)
Trend: CHC is 29-9 (+16.42 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-114 at CIN)
Trend: CIN is 24-15 (+5.76 units) at home with Nick Lodolo in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-107 vs CHC)
(905) MILWAUKEE (94-59) at (906) ST LOUIS (74-79)
Trend: Sonny Gray is 2-6 (-6.31 units) in the last eight vs Milwaukee at home
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+101 vs MIL)
(907) PHILADELPHIA (91-62) at (908) ARIZONA (77-76)
Trend: AZ is 9-4 (+3.98 units) as a home favorite with starter Ryne Nelson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-126 vs PHI)
(909) SAN FRANCISCO (76-77) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (86-67)
Trend: SF is 8-0 (+10.00 units) in road night games with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+151 at LAD)
(911) NEW YORK-AL (86-67) at (912) BALTIMORE (72-81)
Trend: Trevor Rogers is 18-37 (-14.59 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+102 vs NYY)
(913) BOSTON (83-70) at (914) TAMPA BAY (75-78)
Trend: Under the total is 27-13-3 (+12.70 units) when TB faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-TB (o/u at 7)
(915) TORONTO (89-64) at (916) KANSAS CITY (76-77)
Trend: Under the total is 49-28-1 (+18.20 units) in Royals’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-KC (o/u at 9)
(917) SEATTLE (84-69) at (918) HOUSTON (84-69)
Trend: SEA is 1-8 (-6.75 units) as a road underdog within the line range -108 to +145 with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (*if they fall into this line range, -111 currently*)
Trend: HOU is 4-8 (-5.33 units) with starter Hunter Brown as a -145 favorite or worse (including underdog) in divisional games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-109 vs SEA)
(919) CLEVELAND (81-71) at (920) MINNESOTA (66-86)
Trend: MIN is 49-55 (-26.27 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-115 vs CLE)
(921) ATHLETICS (72-81) at (922) PITTSBURGH (65-88)
Trend: Luis Severino is 29-14 (+12.85 units) against teams with a losing record in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-115 at PIT)
(923) ATLANTA (70-83) at (924) DETROIT (85-68)
Trend: Charlie Morton is 5-14 (-8.65 units) within -130 to +175 line range in night games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-121 vs ATL)
(925) SAN DIEGO (83-70) at (926) CHICAGO-AL (57-96)
Trend: Dylan Cease is 13-3 (+6.77 units) in the last six seasons as a large road favorite (-170 or higher)
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-194 at CWS)
(927) MIAMI (73-80) at (928) TEXAS (79-74)
Trend: Under the total is 46-28-1 (+15.20 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-TEX (o/u at 8)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #15: Boston at Tampa Bay, Fri 9/19-Sun 9/21
Trend: Boston has lost 19 of its L26 (26.9%, -11.93 units) games at Tampa Bay (however, BOS is 6-3, +3.12 units in the last nine games)
– The ROI on this trend is -45.9%
Trend Match (CONSIDER FADING): BOSTON (-133 at TB)
Series #19: Cleveland at Minnesota, Fri 9/19-Sun 9/21
Trend: Cleveland has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 33-13 (71.7%, +22.07 units).
– The ROI on this trend is 48%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-105 at MIN)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ARIZONA
Letdown after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 7-18 (28%) -11.38 units, ROI: -45.5%
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-126 vs PHI)
PITTSBURGH
Letdown after series vs. CHICAGO CUBS: 14-20 (41.2%) -2.94 units, ROI: -11.9%
Trend Match (SLIGHT FADE): PITTSBURGH (-105 vs ATH)
WASHINGTON
Letdown after series vs. ATLANTA: 10-23 (30.3%) -15.10 units, ROI: -45.8%
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+176 at NYM)
