The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, September 26, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 392-329 record for +60.68 units and an ROI of 8.4% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+128 at NYY), HOUSTON (-137 at LAA), LA DODGERS (+112 at SEA), NY METS (-137 at MIA), KANSAS CITY (-110 at ATH) 

* WASHINGTON letdown in next game after series vs. ATL: 10-24 (29.4%) -16.10 units, ROI: -47.4% 
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-133 vs CWS) 

Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 21-4 (84%, +11.15 units) surge hosting Colorado.
–  The ROI on this trend is 44.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-246 vs COL)

Trend: Kyle Hendricks has not been good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 line range, 5-22 (-16.46 units) in the last 27
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+114 vs HOU)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 203-136 for +46.01 units, and an ROI of +13.6%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+109 at WSH), MIAMI (+113 vs NYM), PITTSBURGH (+134 at ATL), SEATTLE (-132 vs LAD) 

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 65-68 for -22.26 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -16.7% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): MINNESOTA (+129 at PHI)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 179-222 for -40.28 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10%. Even though we’ve lost some steam on fading these teams lately, it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+151 at CHC), SAN DIEGO (-144 vs AZ)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 349-207 for +30.40 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.5%.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-132 vs LAD)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 146-262 for -33.09 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -8.1%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-133 vs CWS), COLORADO (+197 at SF)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams have had a very strong season, 130-43 for +22 units, an ROI of +12.7%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-246 vs COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, having a season record of 450-479 for +50.67 units, ROI +5.5%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+109 at WSH), MIAMI (+113 vs NYM), PITTSBURGH (+134 at ATL), ATHLETICS (-110 vs KC) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, after a strangely strong three-week surge, they are 208-204 for +13.29 units (ROI 3.2%).
System Match (FADE): 2-games – LA DODGERS (+108 at SEA) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 194-261 for -24.49 units, an ROI of -5.4%.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+197 at SF) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it has recovered from a slow start to post a current record of 254-192 for +20.39 units (ROI 4.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-156 vs BAL), SEATTLE (-132 vs LAD)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): BOSTON, SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA, SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-ATH

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 437-343 for +44.14 units and an ROI of 5.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-156 vs BAL), SEATTLE (-136 vs LAD) 

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 130-167 for -34.39 units and an ROI of -11.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+113 vs HOU) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 358-313 but for -85.67 units and an ROI of -12.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-132 vs CWS), BOSTON (-122 vs DET), MILWAUKEE (-170 vs CIN) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 392-329 record for +60.68 units and an ROI of 8.4% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+128 at NYY), HOUSTON (-137 at LAA), LA DODGERS (+112 at SEA), NY METS (-137 at MIA), KANSAS CITY (-110 at ATH) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1975-1858 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -244.75 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-137 at LAA), KANSAS CITY (-110 at ATH) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,965-2,500 (44%) for -240.39 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+134 at ATL), CINCINNATI (+139 at MIL), TEXAS (+130 at CLE), ARIZONA (+118 at SD), COLORADO (+197 at SF) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,984-3,474 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -512.54 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-173 vs STL), NY YANKEES (-156 vs BAL), TORONTO (-194 vs TB), ATHLETICS (-110 vs KC), SEATTLE (-136 vs LAD)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 586-483 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +32.24 units, for an ROI of 3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+113 vs NYM), PHILADELPHIA (-158 vs MIN)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 263-281 run (+6.28 units, ROI: 1.2%).
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 at WSH) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 129-132 (-56.11 units, ROI: -21.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-156 vs BAL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TAMPA BAY +157 (+28 diff), LA ANGELS +114 (+22), PITTSBURGH +134 (+20), COLORADO +197 (+19) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-SEA OVER 7 (+1.1), DET-BOS OVER 8.5 (+0.6), TB-TOR OVER 7.5 (+0.5), MIN-PHI OVER 8 (+0.5), AZ-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: KC-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-0.8)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) ST LOUIS (78-81) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (89-70)
Trend: STL is 27-36 (-16.46 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at CHC) 

(953) NEW YORK-NL (82-77) at (954) MIAMI (77-82)
Trend: MIA is 72-39 (+21.55 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 vs NYM) 

(955) PITTSBURGH (69-90) at (956) ATLANTA (75-84)
Trend: PIT is 25-53 (-23.02 units) in road games this season
Trend: PIT is 12-21 (-8.95 units) vs NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in L6 seasons
Trends Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+134 at ATL) 

(957) CINCINNATI (81-78) at (958) MILWAUKEE (96-63)
Trend: MIL is 58-33 (+22.31 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-170 vs CIN) 

(961) COLORADO (43-116) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (78-81)
Trend: Under the total is 45-31-2 (+11.00 units) in Rockies’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-SF (o/u at 8.5) 

(963) BALTIMORE (75-84) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (91-68)
Trend: Trevor Rogers is 18-37 (-14.59 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+128 at NYY) 

(965) TAMPA BAY (77-82) at (966) TORONTO (91-68)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 9-19 (-7.52 units) as a night underdog of +100 or worse in the last six seasons
Trend: TOR is 58-35 (+18.54 units) in night games this season
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-194 vs TB) 

(967) DETROIT (86-73) at (968) BOSTON (87-72)
Trend: DET is 38-59 (-25.74 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-1.5 at BOS) 

(969) TEXAS (80-79) at (970) CLEVELAND (86-73)
Trend: CLE is 61-41 (+16.27 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend: TEX is 6-14 (-8.14 units) when facing teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-1.5 vs TEX) 

(971) HOUSTON (85-74) at (972) LOS ANGELES-AL (71-88)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 5-22 (-16.46 units)
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+114 vs HOU)

Trend: Over the total is 44-31-3 (+9.90 units) in Angels’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-LAA (o/u at 9) 

(975) CHICAGO-AL (58-101) at (976) WASHINGTON (65-94)
Trend: CWS is 88-62 (+13.88 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+1.5 at WSH) 

(977) MINNESOTA (69-90) at (978) PHILADELPHIA (94-65)
Trend: PHI is 25-7 (+13.79 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-158 vs MIN) 

(979) LOS ANGELES-NL (90-69) at (980) SEATTLE (90-69)
Trend: LAD is 36-40 (-24.15 units) in road games this season
Trend: SEA is 11-6 (+3.37 units) as a short home favorite (between -111 and -140) with George Kirby in the last three seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-132 vs LAD)

Series #9: Pittsburgh at Atlanta, Fri 9/26-Sun 9/28
Trend: PITTSBURGH is 8-16 (33.3%, -2.23 units) in the last 24 games vs. Atlanta
– The ROI on this trend is -9.3%
Trend Match (SLIGHT FADE): PITTSBURGH (+134 at ATL) 

Series #10: Detroit at Boston, Fri 9/26-Sun 9/28
Trend: DETROIT is 7-13 (35%, -4.99 units) in the last 20 games vs. Boston
– The ROI on this trend is -25%
Trend Match (SLIGHT FADE): DETROIT (+100 at BOS) 

Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 9/26-Sun 9/28
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 21-4 (84%, +11.15 units) surge hosting Colorado.
– The ROI on this trend is 44.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-246 vs COL)

Series #27: Cincinnati at Milwaukee, Fri 9/26-Sun 9/28
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 31-11 (73.8%, +18.93 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 45.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-170 vs CIN) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

WASHINGTON
Letdown after series vs. ATLANTA: 10-24 (29.4%) -16.10 units, ROI: -47.4%     
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-133 vs CWS)

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