The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, September 5, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Road teams are on a 33-17 (66%, +24.83 units) surge in the in-state AL West rivalry between Houston and Texas.
– The ROI on this trend is 49.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-150 at TEX) 

Trend: SEA is 30-20 (+15.17 units) as an underdog with starter Logan Gilbert in last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+117 at ATL) 

* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 352-178 (66.4%) for +45.22 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-137 vs MIN) 

* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 151-203 for -49.10 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+118 vs MIL), SAN FRANCISCO (+101 at STL), ATHLETICS (+128 at LAA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 187-121 for +46.13 units, and an ROI of +15%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-142 vs SEA), ST LOUIS (-123 vs SF) 

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 57-56 for -14.54 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -12.9% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-105 vs NYM), TORONTO (+112 at NYY), MINNESOTA (+112 at KC)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 151-203 for -49.10 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.9%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+118 vs MIL), SAN FRANCISCO (+101 at STL), ATHLETICS (+128 at LAA)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 313-187 for +20.50 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +4.1%. However, this angle has cooled off dramatically over the last few weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-168 at BAL), CLEVELAND (+118 at TB), HOUSTON (-150 at TEX), SAN DIEGO (-220 at COL)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 127-237 for -36.06 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.9%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+182 at CHC), COLORADO (+178 vs SD)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 103-49 for -6.78 units. We have been hovering the red for about a month now, like usual.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-225 vs WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-275 at MIA) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 118-39 for +18.71 units, an ROI of +11.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-194 vs CWS), SAN DIEGO (-220 at COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 77-32 for +6.08 units. September is typically a month where we see more of these plays qualifying daily due to favorite overpricing.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-194 vs CWS) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 180-185 for +0.93 units (ROI 0.3%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 85-84, -3.92 units for the year.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TORONTO (+112 at NYY), ARIZONA (+112 vs BOS)
3+ games – WASHINGTON (+182 at CHC), PITTSBURGH (+118 vs MIL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at DET), BALTIMORE (+138 vs LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (+101 at STL) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 165-220 for -16.22 units, an ROI of -4.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+218 vs PHI), SEATTLE (+117 at ATL), MINNESOTA (+112 at KC), COLORADO (+178 vs SD)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 216-167 for +9.74 units (ROI 2.5%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-144 vs CLE)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, SAN DIEGO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, SEATTLE, BOSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY handle TEAMS THIS MONTH 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-COL

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 420-333 for +36.66 units and an ROI of 4.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+182 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at DET), PITTSBURGH (+118 vs MIL), BALTIMORE (+138 vs LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (+101 at STL) 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 203-149 for +20.97 units and an ROI of 6% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-120 at CIN)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 124-163 for -36.69 units and an ROI of -12.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+118 vs MIL), CINCINNATI (-102 vs NYM), ARIZONA (+112 vs BOS) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 346-303 but for -84.27 units and an ROI of -13% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-136 vs TOR), ATLANTA (-142 vs SEA), LA ANGELS (-157 vs ATH) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 376-323 record for +49.51 units and an ROI of 7.1% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at DET), TORONTO (+112 at NYY), SAN FRANCISCO (+101 at STL) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1938-1835 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -253.58 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+182 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at DET), CINCINNATI (-102 vs NYM), TORONTO (+112 at NYY), SAN FRANCISCO (+101 at STL) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1930-2443 (44.1%) for -215.04 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-120 at CIN), MILWAUKEE (-144 at PIT), PHILADELPHIA (-275 at MIA), CLEVELAND (+118 at TB), ATHLETICS (+128 at LAA), BOSTON (-136 at AZ) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3918-3421 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -511.42 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+218 vs PHI), DETROIT (-194 vs CWS), BALTIMORE (+138 vs LAD), PITTSBURGH (+118 vs MIL), NY YANKEES (-136 vs TOR), CINCINNATI (-102 vs NYM), ATLANTA (-142 vs SEA), ST LOUIS (-123 vs SF), COLORADO (+182 vs SD) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 577-479 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.84 units, for an ROI of 2.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-225 vs WSH), TAMPA BAY (-144 vs CLE) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 352-178 (66.4%) for +45.22 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-137 vs MIN) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 321-284 (53.1%) for +24.01 units and an ROI of 4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-102 vs NYM)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 252-257 run (+21.56 units, ROI: 4.2%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-225 at COL)

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 72-60 (+15.92 units, ROI: 12.1%) in their last 132 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at DET) 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of fivegames and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 168-138 (+7.22 units, ROI: 2.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at DET)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 232-150 in their last 382 tries (+38.47 units, ROI: 10.1%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-144 vs CLE) 

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 31-64 (-8.52 units, ROI: -9%) in their last 95 tries.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at DET) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +218 (+54 diff), CLEVELAND +118 (+23), WASHINGTON +182 (+16) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS (+45 diff), SAN DIEGO -220 (+24), ATLANTA -142 (+21), MILWAUKEE -144 (+20) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SEA-ATL OVER 7.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-CHC UNDER 10.5 (-0.5), CWS-DET UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), ATH-LAA UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) WASHINGTON (56-83) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (80-60)
Trend: WSH is 6-20 (-12.32 units) against NL teams with a win pct between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+182 at CHC)

(905) NEW YORK-NL (75-65) at (906) CINCINNATI (70-70)
Trend: CIN is 4-10 (-6.97 units) on the road within line range -129 to +129 with starter David Peterson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-116 at CIN) 

(907) PHILADELPHIA (81-59) at (908) MIAMI (65-75)
Trend: PHI is 23-5 (+13.53 units) in favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-275 at MIA)

Trend: MIA is 64-35 (+18.87 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 vs PHI) 

(909) SAN FRANCISCO (71-69) at (910) ST LOUIS (70-71)
Trend: Over the total is 26-15-3 (+9.50 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-STL (o/u at 8.5) 

(911) SAN DIEGO (76-64) at (912) COLORADO (39-101)
Trend: Under the total is 31-12 (+17.80 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-COL (o/u at 10.5) 

(913) CHICAGO-AL (53-88) at (914) DETROIT (81-60)
Trend: CWS is 79-54 (+15.31 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+1.5 at DET)

(915) TORONTO (81-59) at (916) NEW YORK-AL (78-62)
Trend: TOR is 11-15 (-10.17 units) in the last 26 vs AL East foes with Kevin Gausman
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 7-13 (-4.53 units) as a road night underdog since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): TORONTO (+112 at NYY)

(919) MINNESOTA (62-78) at (920) KANSAS CITY (71-69)
Trend: KC is 9-3 (+6.33 units) in home divisional games with starter Michael Wacha since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-137 vs MIN) 

(923) ATHLETICS (64-77) at (924) LOS ANGELES-AL (66-74)
Trend: LAA has been solid in night games this season (52-48, +16.16 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-157 vs ATH) 

(925) LOS ANGELES-NL (78-62) at (926) BALTIMORE (64-76)
Trend: LAD is just 31-36 (-22.95 units) on the ROAD this season
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 39-14 (+6.34 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last six seasons
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA DODGERS (-168 at BAL)

Trend: BAL is 33-17 (+11.48 units) in the last 50 home games with starter Dean Kremer
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+138 vs LAD) 

(927) SEATTLE (73-67) at (928) ATLANTA (63-77)
Trend: SEA is 30-20 (+15.17 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+117 at ATL)

Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Fri 9/5-Sun 9/7
Trend: Favorites are just 24-42 (36.4%, -34.96 units) in the last 66 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -53%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-136 vs TOR) 

Series #24: Houston at Texas, Fri 9/5-Sun 9/7
Trend: Road teams are on a 33-17 (66%, +24.83 units) surge in the in-state AL West rivalry between Houston and Texas.
– The ROI on this trend is 49.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-150 at TEX) 

Series #28: Minnesota at Kansas City, Fri 9/5-Sun 9/7
Trend: Home teams in the Kansas City-Minnesota AL Central rivalry are on a 36-12 (75%, +23.80 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 49.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-137 vs MIN)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

MIAMI  
Momentum after series vs. WASHINGTON: 19-16 (54.3%) +9.90 units, ROI: 28.3%       
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+218 vs PHI)

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