Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, April 13, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 357-389 but for +99.54 units and an ROI of 13.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+139 at SEA)
Trend: PHI is 22-2 (+18.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-181 vs CHC)
* Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 84-126 SU (-21.25 units) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+184 at PIT)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, success continues, as these teams are off to a strong 32-17 start, with +6.47 units and an ROI of +13.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-168 at MIN), TEXAS (-122 at ATH)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the ’25 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For ’26, these teams are off to a 35-20 start for +4.57 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-168 vs HOU), PHILADELPHIA (-181 vs CHC), BOSTON (-168 at MIN), CLEVELAND (-118 at STL), TEXAS (-122 at ATH)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 15-21 start for +2.99 units.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+139 vs BOS)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 10-2 for +5.38 units, as big favorites are off to an unusually strong start overall. I would expect this to cool.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-226 vs WSH), NY YANKEES (-194 vs LAA)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the ’23-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 9-5 start for -3.19 units.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-194 vs LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a 27-33 start for -2.52 units.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+149 at PHI)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the ’23-‘25 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to an unusually strong 19-13 start for +9.89 units and an ROI of +30.9%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the ‘26 results so far show a record of 4-13 for -9.28 units and an ROI of -54.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – MINNESOTA (+139 vs BOS)
3-games – WASHINGTON (+184 at PIT), ATHLETICS (+102 vs TEX)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, but it is off to a strangely fast start, 15-11 for +7.45 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+139 at SEA), MIAMI (+129 at ATL), NY METS (+139 at LAD)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 9-14 for -11.84 units.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-194 vs LAA)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 441-358 for +27.60 units and an ROI of 3.5% since the start of the ’22 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+184 at PIT), ATHLETICS (+102 vs TEX)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 212-161 for +15.52 units and an ROI of 4.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-118 at STL), TEXAS (-122 at ATH)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 357-389 but for +99.54 units and an ROI of 13.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+139 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 135-171 for -33.23 units and an ROI of -10.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-102 vs CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 402-342 record for +58.11 units and an ROI of 7.8% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+149 at PHI), LA ANGELS (+159 at NYY), BOSTON (-171 at MIN)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 636-738 record but for +23.77 units and an ROI of 1.7% since the start of the ’22 season
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+139 at SEA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2005-1891 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -254.05 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS, BOSTON, ATLANTA
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2008-2559 (43.9%) for -251.62 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, MIAMI, CLEVELAND, NY METS
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4058-3524 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -506.16 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH, SEATTLE, ATLANTA
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 84-126 SU (-21.25 units) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+184 at PIT)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 457-519 SU but for +69.28 units (ROI: 7.1%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 159-169 SU for +39.63 units in the last 328 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+139 at SEA), NY METS (+139 at LAD), MIAMI (+129 at ATL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 38-96 skid (-34.97 units, ROI -26.1%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 70-140 skid (-37.88 units, ROI: -18%).
* Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-21 (+10.01 units, ROI: 25.7%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 93-173 (-58.96 units, ROI: -22.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 40-75 in their last 115 tries (-19.47 units, ROI: -16.9%).
Systems Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+139 at SEA)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 271-289 run (+4.69 units, ROI: 0.8%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-194 vs LAA), NY METS (+139 at LAD)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5-games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 181-146 (+13.67 units, ROI: 4.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+102 vs TEX)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS +153 (+20), LA ANGELS +159 (+18)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LA DODGERS -168 (+18)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.7)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-NYY UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), CLE-STL UNDER 8 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) CHICAGO-NL (7-8) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (7-8)
Trend: PHI is 22-2 (+18.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-181 vs CHC)
(913) BOSTON (6-9) at (914) MINNESOTA (9-7)
Trend: MIN is 9-4 (+6.62 units) as a +100 or worse underdog at home with starter Bailey Ober in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+139 vs BOS)
(915) TEXAS (8-7) at (916) ATHLETICS (8-7)
Trend: Luis Severino is 18-38 (-16.37 units) as an underdog in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+102 vs TEX)
(917) ARIZONA (9-7) at (918) BALTIMORE (8-7)
Trend: Over the total is 13-4-3 (+8.50 units) when AZ is on the road and faces teams with a >= 0.480 win pct with starter Ryne Nelson since the start of the 2024 season, going over the listed total by 2.45 runs on average
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-BAL (o/u at 8.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the ‘24 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA, CLEVELAND
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH, NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, LA DODGERS
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
CHICAGO CUBS
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 23-12 (65.7%) +10.61 units, ROI: 30.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+149 at PHI)
NY YANKEES
Momentum after series vs. TAMPA BAY: 25-11 (69.4%) +8.61 units, ROI: 23.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-194 vs LAA)
PITTSBURGH
Letdown after series vs. CHICAGO CUBS: 14-21 (40%) -4.04 units, ROI: -11.5%
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-226 vs WSH)
