The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, April 6, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: CLE is 29-12 (+16.18 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-118 vs KC) 

* MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 65-35 SU for +17.10 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-143 at CWS) 

Trend: Home teams are on a 19-5 (79.2%, +13.72) run in the Giants-Phillies National League series
– The ROI on this trend is 57.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+100 vs PHI) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. For the ’26 season, these teams have a record of 25-12 (+6.12 units).
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-143 at CWS) 

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle showing that good bullpens provide better support for good starting pitching. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 4-5 (-1.58 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+113 at PIT), CINCINNATI (+109 at MIA), LA DODGERS (-149 at TOR)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks of ’25. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 17-13 (-2.32 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-115 at BOS), ATLANTA (-175 at LAA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 7-14 (-5.33 units).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 vs BAL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 16-19 (-0.94 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+113 at PIT), CINCINNATI (+109 at MIA), DETROIT (+102 at MIN), SEATTLE (-102 at TEX), CHICAGO CUBS (+102 at TB) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For 2025, they were an uncustomary 220-211 for +18.9 units (ROI 4.4%). For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 4-8 (-3.64 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so the 2025 results of 107-100 for +3.03 units were disappointing. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 2-3 (-1.01 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TAMPA BAY (-122 vs CHC), LA ANGELS (+144 vs ATL)
3+ games – PITTSBURGH (-136 vs SD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 vs BAL) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026. For the 2026 season, these teams have started unusually fast with a record of 8-3 (+7.38 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-102 vs STL), TORONTO (+123 vs LAD), TEXAS (-118 vs SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (+100 vs PHI) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Although it lost -5.28 units in 2025, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 3-5 (-3.94 units).
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-143 at CWS)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 438-352 for +31.12 units and an ROI of 3.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+109 at MIA), PITTSBURGH (-136 vs SD), LA DODGERS (-149 at TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 vs BAL) 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 209-160 for +13.67 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-115 at BOS), ST LOUIS (-118 at WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-120 at SF) 

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 134-168 for -31.23 units and an ROI of -10.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-102 vs STL), BOSTON (-105 vs MIL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 vs BAL), SAN FRANCISCO (+100 vs PHI) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 368-316 but for -80.33 units and an ROI of -11.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-122 vs CHC), MIAMI (-131 vs CIN) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 398-338 record for +57.39 units and an ROI of 7.8% since the start of the ’22 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-149 at TOR), MILWAUKEE (-115 at BOS), SAN DIEGO (+113 at PIT) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1999-1883 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -251.70 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-175 at COL)

Road team that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1994-2545 (43.9%) for -252.50 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4034-3507 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -510.58 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, MIAMI, BOSTON, LA ANGELS, CLEVELAND 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 599-492 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +35.99 units, for an ROI of 3.3%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+123 vs LAD) 

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 82-124 SU (-21.57 units) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+113 at PIT) 

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 65-35 SU for +17.10 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-143 at CWS) 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 212-245 SU but for +43.29 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+144 vs HOU) 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 447-506 SU but for +70.01 units since the start of the 2021 season (including 156-163 SU for +41.33 units in the last 319 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+102 at TB), DETROIT (+102 at MIN)
*WATCH FOR KANSAS CITY at CLE (-102 CURRENTLY) and SEATTLE at TEX (-102 CURRENTLY)* 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 267-283 run (+8.50 units, ROI: 1.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+123 vs LAD), TEXAS (-118 vs SEA) 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five-games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 237-155 in their last 392 tries (+36.79 units, ROI: 9.4%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-136 vs SD) 

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 139-139 (-56.95 units, ROI: -20.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-136 vs SD) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TORONTO +123 (+24 diff), WASHINGTON -102 (+20) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-CLE OVER 7 (+0.6), DET-MIN OVER 7 (+0.6), STL-WSH OVER 8 (+0.5), HOU-COL OVER 10.5 (+0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(957) PHILADELPHIA (5-4) at (958) SAN FRANCISCO (3-7)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 9-20 (-8.52 units) as a night underdog of +100 or worse in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+100 vs PHI) 

(959) KANSAS CITY (4-5) at (960) CLEVELAND (6-4)
Trend: CLE is 29-12 (+16.18 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-118 vs KC)

(965) SEATTLE (4-6) at (966) TEXAS (4-5)
Trend: SEA is 31-23 (+13.18 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-102 at TEX)

Trend: TEX is 4-11 (-8.73 units) in the last 15 night games as a -130 favorite or less (including underdog) with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-118 vs SEA) 

Series #7: Philadelphia at San Francisco, Mon 4/6-Wed 4/8
Trend: Home teams are on a 19-5 (79.2%, +13.72) run in the Giants-Phillies National League series.
– The ROI on this trend is 57.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+100 vs PHI) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, LA DODGERS, COLORADO, ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MIAMI, BOSTON, TEXAS, COLORADO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, it is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-CWS 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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