Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, August 18, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: PIT is 12-2 (+9.55 units) as a small favorite/pick ‘em (-136 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-112 vs TOR)
CHICAGO CUBS momentum in next game after series vs. PIT: 23-10 (69.7%) +12.74 units, ROI: 38.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS GAME 1 (-119 vs MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 366-315 record for +46.82 units and an ROI of 6.9% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+102 at BOS), TEXAS (+108 at KC), SAN FRANCISCO (+123 at SD)
Trend: Under the total is 29-11 (+16.90 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-SD (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 174-110 for +44.92 units, and an ROI of 15.8%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-149 vs STL), PITTSBURGH (-112 vs TOR)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 52-47 for -6.81 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -6.9% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TORONTO (-109 at PIT)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 133-182 for -48.66 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15.4%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up. This angle is 30-50 for -18.11 units since All-Star break.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+167 at ATL), LA ANGELS (-106 vs CIN)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 287-166 for +23.59 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-206 vs CWS), MILWAUKEE GAME 1 (-103 at CHC), LA DODGERS (-304 at COL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 120-214 for -28.02 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -8.4%!
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+239 vs LAD)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 91-46 for -12.00 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red, and we are again!
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-206 vs CWS)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 112-36 for +22.24 units, an ROI of 15%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-304 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. This season’s record stands at 340-356 for +37.41 units, ROI +5.4%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE GAME 1 (-103 at CHC), MILWAUKEE GAME 2 (+104 at CHC), LA ANGELS (-106 vs CIN), CLEVELAND (-105 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 156-164 for -3.77 units (ROI -1.2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 76-73, -2.71 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CHICAGO CUBS GAME 1 (-118 vs MIL)
3-games – COLORADO (+239 vs LAD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 143-198 for -22.59 units, an ROI of -6.6%. Although last year it was about -1% ROI, this year’s loss ROI makes it an angle I want to keep tracking, and we will do so going forward.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+122 at MIA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+167 at ATL), ARIZONA (-115 vs CLE)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and after a huge month-long run of +19.08 units, it is now 193-143 for +18.65 units (ROI 5.6%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-206 vs CWS), KANSAS CITY (-132 vs TEX), LA DODGERS (-304 at COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): KANSAS CITY, MILWAUKEE GAME 2, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in ALL 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, KANSAS CITY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TEX-KC, MIL-CHC GAME 2, CLE-ARI
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 410-320 for +48.11 units and an ROI of 6.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-206 vs CWS), KANSAS CITY (-132 vs TEX)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 197-145 for +19.96 units and an ROI of 5.8% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-115 at LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 335-290 but for -77.17 units and an ROI of -12.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-149 vs STL), DETROIT (-156 vs HOU), PITTSBURGH (-112 vs TOR), PHILADELPHIA (-119 vs SEA), SAN DIEGO (-150 vs SF), ARIZONA (-119 vs CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 366-315 record for +46.82 units and an ROI of 6.9% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+102 at BOS), TEXAS (+108 at KC), SAN FRANCISCO (+123 at SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1902-1804 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -253.08 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-119 vs SEA), TEXAS (+108 at KC), BALTIMORE (+102 at BOS), LA ANGELS (-106 vs CIN)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1903-2412 (44.1%) for -214.49 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE GAME 1 (-102 at CHC), HOUSTON (+128 at DET), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+167 at ATL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3855-3376 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -516.11 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-119 vs SEA), MIAMI (-144 vs STL), ATLANTA (-206 vs CWS), KANSAS CITY (-132 vs TEX), COLORADO (+239 vs LAD), ARIZONA (-119 vs CLE), LA ANGELS (-106 vs CIN)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 246-253 run (+17.99 units, ROI: 3.6%).
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+167 at ATL)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 71-58 (+18.09 units, ROI: 14%) in their last 129 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-206 vs CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 166-133 (+11.81 units, ROI: 3.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-206 vs CWS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE GAME 1 -103 (+21 diff), CLEVELAND -105 (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PHILADELPHIA -119 (+17 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BAL-BOS OVER 8.5 (+0.8), SEA-PHI OVER 7.5 (+0.7), LAD-COL OVER 11 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-DET UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), TEX-KC UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), CLE-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.5), SF-SD UNDER 7.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) ST LOUIS (61-64) at (902) MIAMI (59-65)
Trend: MIA is 3-9 (-7.57 units) against NL Central/West opponents with Eury Perez since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-149 vs STL)
(905) LOS ANGELES-NL (71-53) at (906) COLORADO (35-89)
Trend: LAD is 28-29 (-12.66 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-304 at COL)
(907) SAN FRANCISCO (60-64) at (908) SAN DIEGO (69-55)
Trend: SF is 6-0 (+7.78 units) in road night games with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: SF is 15-5 (+11.03 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: SF is 12-21 (-15.69 units) vs LH starters this season
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of SAN FRANCISCO (+123 at SD)
Trend: Under the total is 29-11 (+16.90 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-SD (o/u at 7.5)
(909) HOUSTON (69-55) at (910) DETROIT (73-53)
Trend: HOU is 23-8 (+9.95 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+1.5 at DET)
(911) BALTIMORE (57-67) at (912) BOSTON (68-57)
Trend: Under the total is 39-22-3 (+14.90 units) in Orioles’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-BOS (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Trevor Rogers is 16-36 (-15.78 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+102 at BOS)
(913) TEXAS (62-63) at (914) KANSAS CITY (63-61)
Trend: TEX is 4-12 (-8.14 units) when facing teams with a >= .500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+108 at KC)
(915) TORONTO (73-52) at (916) PITTSBURGH (52-73)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 7-12 (-3.50 units) as a road night underdog since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-109 at PIT)
Trend: PIT is 12-2 (+9.55 units) as a small favorite/pick ‘em (-136 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-112 vs TOR)
(917) SEATTLE (68-57) at (918) PHILADELPHIA (71-53)
Trend: SEA is 30-19 (+16.18 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-102 at PHI)
(919) CHICAGO-AL (44-80) at (920) ATLANTA (56-68)
Trend: CWS is 18-44 (-16.21 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+167 at ATL)
(921) CINCINNATI (65-60) at (922) LOS ANGELES-AL (60-64)
Trend: Under the total is 45-22-2 (+20.80 units) when CIN is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-LAA (o/u at 9)
(925) MILWAUKEE (78-45) at (926) CHICAGO-NL (70-53) (DH Game #1)
Trend: MIL is 14-6 (+5.90 units) vs CHICAGO teams (Cubs/White Sox) with starter Freddy Peralta in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-103 at CHC)
Trend: Under the total is 9-2 (+6.80 units) in the last 11 MIL road games versus NL teams within line range of -300 to +112 with starter Freddy Peralta since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CHC (o/u at 8)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
CHICAGO CUBS
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 23-10 (69.7%) +12.74 units, ROI: 38.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS GAME 1 (-119 vs MIL)
PITTSBURGH
Letdown after series vs. CHICAGO CUBS: 13-20 (39.4%) -3.94 units, ROI: -11.9%
Trend Match (SLIGHT FADE): PITTSBURGH (-112 vs TOR)
SAN DIEGO
Letdown after series vs. LA DODGERS: 18-19 (48.6%) -9.26 units, ROI: -25%
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-150 vs SF)
