Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, July 28, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: PHI is 21-4 (+13.93 units) in the favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-225 at CWS)
Since the start of the 2023 season, money line underdog teams with better SM bullpen ratings have gone 995-1086, but for +84.18 units, an ROI of 4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+108 at NYY), CINCINNATI (+129 vs LAD), MILWAUKEE (-102 vs CHC), MIAMI (-106 at STL), PITTSBURGH (+108 at SF)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 321-283 but for -80.98 units and an ROI of -13.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-131 vs. NYM)
Trend: Under the total is 10-1-1 (+9.05 units), going under the listed total by 2.04 runs on average, when Luis Castillo faces teams with a <= 45% win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-ATH (o/u at 10.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 136-87 for +35.98 units, and an ROI of 16.1%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+108 at NYY), ATLANTA (-174 at KC), MIAMI (-106 at STL), SAN DIEGO (-131 vs NYM), PITTSBURGH (+108 at SF)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 119-148 for -30.49 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-111 at MIN), NY METS (+107 at SD)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 252-127 for +49.34 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-158 at CIN), HOUSTON (-264 vs WSH), TEXAS (-205 at LAA)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 101-193 for -36.28 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.3%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+227 at CLE), WASHINGTON (+211 at HOU)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 76-34 for -0.53 units. This has finally reached the red, following suit with the past few years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-264 vs. WSH), TEXAS (-205 at LAA)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 102-32 for +21.63 units, an ROI of 16.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-288 vs. COL), PHILADELPHIA (-225 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 294-296 for +37.91 units, ROI +6.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+108 at NYY), CINCINNATI (+129 vs. LAD), MILWAUKEE (-102 vs. CHC), MIAMI (-106 at STL), PITTSBURGH (+108 at SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 133-145 for -10.62 units (ROI -3.8%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 71-67, +1.52 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CHICAGO CUBS (-119 at MIL), WASHINGTON (+211 at HOU)
3+ games – NY METS (+107 at SD), ATHLETICS (-110 vs. SEA)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. It is now 159-119 for +12.85 units, an ROI of 4.6%. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+129 vs LAD), TEXAS (-205 at LAA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of ASB ’25, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): CHICAGO CUBS, MIAMI, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so consider that when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, HOUSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in ALL 38 possible games this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, TEXAS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, HOUSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in 2025. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and a ROI of -13.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): COL-CLE, BOS-MIN, ATL-KC
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 401-307 for +54.59 units and an ROI of 7.7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+129 vs LAD), TEXAS (-199 at LAA), NY METS (+107 at SD), ATHLETICS (+100 vs SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 195-140 for +23.96 units and an ROI of 7.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-111 at BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (-119 at MIL), SEATTLE (-121 at ATH)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 117-156 for -36.96 units and a ROI of -13.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-109 vs. TOR), MILWAUKEE (-102 vs. CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 321-283 but for -80.98 units and an ROI of -13.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-131 vs. NYM)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 357-297 record for +59.29 units and an ROI of 9.1% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-199 at LAA), PITTSBURGH (+108 at SF)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1,868-1,776 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.17 units. This represents an ROI of -6.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-136 vs. AZ), SAN DIEGO (-131 vs. NYM)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1862-2366 (44%) for -211.55 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (+112 at DET), COLORADO (+223 at CLE), TAMPA BAY (+108 at NYY), MIAMI (-106 at STL), ATLANTA (-174 at KC), SEATTLE (-121 at ATH)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3777-3318 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -521.16 units and a ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-109 vs. TOR), DETROIT (-136 vs. AZ), ATHLETICS (+100 vs. SEA), SAN DIEGO (-131 vs NYM)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 557-467 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +24.92 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+129 vs. LAD)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 310-275 (53%) for +20.30 units and an ROI of 3.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-115 vs. MIA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 165-125 (+21.86 units, ROI: 7.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+107 at SD), TEXAS (-199 at LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 218-143 in their last 361 tries (+34.40 units, ROI: 9.5%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+107 at SD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +227 (+41 diff), WASHINGTON +211 (+40), KANSAS CITY +142 (+21)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SEATTLE -111 (+39 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-CWS OVER 8 (+0.6), WSH-HOU OVER 7.5 (+0.6), TB-NYY OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-0.9), COL-CLE UNDER 9 (-0.6), ATL-KC UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) LOS ANGELES-NL (61-45) at (952) CINCINNATI (56-50)
Trend: LAD is 14-4 (+8.48 units) as a smaller favorite within -115 to -165 line range with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto since the start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-158 at CIN)
(953) CHICAGO-NL (62-43) at (954) MILWAUKEE (62-43)
Trend: MIL is 20-10 (+12.04 units) vs. LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-102 vs. CHC)
(955) MIAMI (50-54) at (956) ST LOUIS (54-53)
Trend: MIA is 16-13 (+5.34 units) as a shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last four seasons
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MIAMI (-105 at STL)
Trend: STL is 4-7 (-5.26 units) as a home favorite with starter Andre Pallante since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-115 vs. MIA)
(957) NEW YORK-NL (62-44) at (958) SAN DIEGO (57-49)
Trend: SD is 6-9 (-8.96 units) as a home night favorite with Dylan Cease since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-131 vs. NYM)
(959) PITTSBURGH (44-62) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (54-52)
Trend: Under the total is 44-27-2 (+14.30 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-SF (o/u at 8)
(961) TORONTO (63-43) at (962) BALTIMORE (47-58)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 26-13 (+7.48 units) in night games since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-109 vs. TOR)
(967) TEXAS (56-50) at (968) LOS ANGELES-AL (51-55)
Trend: TEX is 11-0 (+11.00 units) in thelast 11 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-205 at LAA)
(969) SEATTLE (56-50) at (970) ATHLETICS (46-62)
Trend: Under the total is 10-1-1 (+9.05 units), going under the listed total by 2.04 runs on average, when Luis Castillo faces teams with a <= 45% win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-ATH (o/u at 10.5)
(971) ARIZONA (51-55) at (972) DETROIT (61-46)
Trend: DET is 19-10 (+6.67 units) vs. LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-136 vs. AZ)
(975) PHILADELPHIA (60-45) at (976) CHICAGO-AL (38-68)
Trend: PHI is 21-4 (+13.93 units) in the favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-225 at CWS)
(977) ATLANTA (44-60) at (978) KANSAS CITY (52-54)
Trend: ATL is the worst team to bet on the road this season (18-34 record, -26.55 units)
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-174 at KC)
(979) WASHINGTON (43-62) at (980) HOUSTON (60-46)
Trend: WSH is 49-29 (+13.87 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at HOU)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Thursday, July 31)
