The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, March 30, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 393-333 record for +56.92 units and an ROI of 7.8% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+104 at BAL), TAMPA BAY (+123 at MIL), WASHINGTON (+144 at PHI) 

Trend: Walker Buehler is 37-14 (+9.21 units) against NL West competition since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-118 vs SF) 

* Teams who are now large underdogs of +220 or more who lost their last game by only one run have had their totals go Under at a 91-53-6 (63.2%) rate in their follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-TOR (o/u at 8.5)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. For the 2026 season, the record is 10-5 (+1.09 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-156 at STL), KANSAS CITY (-168 vs MIN), BOSTON (-118 at HOU), CHICAGO CUBS (-194 vs LAA)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. For the 2026 season, the record is 3-0 (+3.53 units).
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-149 vs TB)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks of ’25. For the 2026 season, the record is 6-7 (-3.17 units).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-118 at HOU)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For the 2026 season, the record is 1-4 (-2.11 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+144 at PHI), COLORADO (+229 at TOR) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The ’25 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. For the ’26 season, the record is 1-1 (-1.43 units).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-194 vs LAA) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. For the 2026 season, the record is 6-0 (+6.00 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-286 vs COL), LA DODGERS (-194 vs CLE)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the ’23-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. For the 2026 season, the record is 6-0 (+6.00 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-286 vs COL), CHICAGO CUBS (-194 vs LAA), LA DODGERS (-194 vs CLE) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! For the 2026 season, the record is 4-7 (-1.20 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+113 at CIN), TEXAS (+104 at BAL), DETROIT (-102 at ARI) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For 2025, they were an uncustomary 220-211 for +18.9 units (ROI 4.4%). For the 2026 season, this record is 1-3 (-2.02 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI (-136 vs PIT), HOUSTON (-102 vs BOS) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-102 at SD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 at MIA), COLORADO (+229 at TOR), ATHLETICS (+113 at ATL), ARIZONA (-118 vs DET) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-115 at SEA), MIAMI (-143 vs CWS), TORONTO (-286 vs COL), MILWAUKEE (-149 vs TB), LA DODGERS (-194 vs CLE) 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 438-344 for +43.62 units and an ROI of 5.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-143 vs CWS), TORONTO (-286 vs COL), MILWAUKEE (-149 vs TB), NY YANKEES (-115 at SEA), LA DODGERS (-194 vs CLE) 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 208-156 for +17.35 units and an ROI of 4.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-118 at HOU), NY YANKEES (-115 at SEA) 

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 132-167 for -32.27 units and an ROI of -10.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-102 vs BOS), SEATTLE (-105 vs NYY) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 364-315 but for -82.67 units and an ROI of -12.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-168 vs MIN), ARIZONA (-118 vs DET) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 393-333 record for +56.92 units and an ROI of 7.8% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+104 at BAL), TAMPA BAY (+123 at MIL), WASHINGTON (+144 at PHI) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1987-1871 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -248.31 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, TAMPA BAY 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,980-2,522 (44%) for -243.30 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, SAN FRANCISCO, CLEVELAND, BOSTON, ATHLETICS 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4017-3490 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -502.43 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, TORONTO, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, SEATTLE

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 592-484 (55%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +37.59 units, for an ROI of 3.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs WSH), SAN DIEGO (-118 vs SF) 

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 178-208 SU record for +41.73 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+129 vs NYM)

Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 38-136 SU for -45.38 units in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+229 at TOR)

When these teams are +220 or more, Under the total is 91-53-6 (63.2%) in their next game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-TOR (o/u at 8.5)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 62-33 SU for +16.84 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-118 at HOU) 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 439-497 SU but for +69.15 units since the start of the 2021 season (including 155-162 SU for +41.04 units in last 317 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+135 at KC), ATHLETICS (+113 at ATL), LA ANGELS (+159 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 at MIA), CLEVELAND (+159 at LAD)
*ALSO WATCH FOR DETROIT at ARI (-102 CURRENTLY) and SAN FRANCISCO at SD (-102 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +229 (+40 diff), SEATTLE -105 (+36), DETROIT -102 (+31), LA ANGELS +159 (+22)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO -118 (+42 diff), PHILADELPHIA -175 (+16), MIAMI -143 (+16) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-MIL OVER 8 (+0.7), NYY-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEX-BAL UNDER 9.5 (-1.2), MIN-KC UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), NYM-STL UNDER 9 (-0.5), CLE-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) WASHINGTON (2-1) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (1-2)
Trend: Taijuan Walker is 23-9 (+7.60 units) as a home favorite of -130 or higher in the last 5+ seasons
Trend: Taijuan Walker is 6-20 (-13.41 units) at night against teams with a >=55% win pct in the last 5+ seasons
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE OF PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs WSH) 

(907) SAN FRANCISCO (0-3) at (908) SAN DIEGO (1-2)
Trend: SF is 1-6 (-5.21 units) versus divisional opponents with starter Landen Roupp
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-102 at SD)

Trend: Walker Buehler has dominated lesser competition, going 22-5 (+10.42 units) against teams with a < 40% win pct since 2019
Trend: Walker Buehler is 37-14 (+9.21 units) against NL West competition since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-118 vs SF) 

(909) MINNESOTA (1-2) at (910) KANSAS CITY (1-2)
Trend: MIN is 18-8 (+8.64 units) against teams with a <= 0.500 win pct with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+139 at KC)

Trend: Under the total is 15-6 (+8.29 units) when MIN is a plus-money underdog with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-KC (o/u at 9.5)

(911) TEXAS (2-1) at (912) BALTIMORE (2-1)
Trend: TEX is 7-14 (-6.85 units) when facing teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+104 at BAL) 

(925) TAMPA BAY (1-2) at (926) MILWAUKEE (3-0)
Trend: Nick Martinez is 2-9 (-6.19 units) as a road underdog vs NL opponents since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+123 at MIL) 

(927) DETROIT (2-1) at (928) ARIZONA (0-3)
Trend: Mike Soroka is 3-13 (-10.82 units) in the -120 to +115 line range the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-118 vs DET) 

Series #10: Minnesota at Kansas City, Mon 3/30-Thu 4/2
Trend: Home teams in the Royals-Twins AL Central rivalry are on a 38-13 (74.5%, +24.66 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 48.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-168 vs MIN) 

Series #26: Texas at Baltimore, Mon 3/30-Wed 4/1
Trend: Underdogs (and pick ’ems) are 22-13 (62.9%, +11.25 units) in the last 35 games between TEX and BAL
– The ROI on this trend is 32.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+104 at BAL) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): CHICAGO WHITE SOX 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, TORONTO, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, ARIZONA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on HOME TEAMS in MARCH/APRIL of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, TORONTO, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, it is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-KC, LAA-CHC, ATH-ATL

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