Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, September 22, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 356-310 but for -83.58 units and an ROI of -12.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (-119 vs MIL), SAN FRANCISCO (-149 vs STL)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 10-24 (-13.08 units) vs NL East opponents in his career
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+213 at ATL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEM
– Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 65-66 for -19.58 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -14.9% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+213 at ATL)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 115-59 for -17.60 units (ROI of -10.1%). We have been hovering in the red for over a month now, like usual.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-267 vs WSH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, having a season record of 440-471 for +45.85 units, ROI +5%!
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+122 at SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, after a strangely strong two-week surge, they are 206-202 for +12.94 units (ROI 3.2%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+213 at ATL)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and it has recovered from a slow start to post a current record of 245-187 for +17.09 units (ROI 4%).
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-267 vs WSH)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): MILWAUKEE (-102 at SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-267 vs WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-267 vs WSH), MILWAUKEE (-102 at SD), SAN FRANCISCO (-149 vs STL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 434-342 for +42.26 units and an ROI of 5.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-267 vs WSH)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 356-310 but for -83.58 units and an ROI of -12.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (-119 vs MIL), SAN FRANCISCO (-149 vs STL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1957-2490 (44%) for -238.07 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-102 at SD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3970-3466 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -516.13 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-267 vs WSH)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 76-63 (+17.60 units, ROI: 12.7%) in their last 139 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-267 vs WSH)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 179-143 (+14.79 units, ROI: 4.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-267 vs WSH)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: WASHINGTON +213 (+33 diff)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-ATL OVER 7 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: STL-SF UNDER 8 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) WASHINGTON (64-92) at (952) ATLANTA (73-83)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 10-24 (-13.08 units) vs NL East opponents in his career
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+213 at ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 27-17-2 (+8.30 units) when WSH faces LH starters this season
Trend: Under the total is 23-15-2 (+6.50 units) when ATL faces LH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-ATL (o/u at 7)
(953) MILWAUKEE (95-61) at (954) SAN DIEGO (85-71)
Trend: MIL is 9-15 (-15.88 units) in September/October with starter Freddy Peralta in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-102 at SD)
Trend: Under the total is 10-2 (+7.80 units) in the last 12 MIL road games versus NL teams within line range of -300 to +112 with starter Freddy Peralta since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-SD (o/u at 7)
(955) ST LOUIS (76-80) at (956) SAN FRANCISCO (77-79)
Trend: STL is 32-43 (-9.83 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+122 at SF)
Trend: Under the total is 58-41-2 (+12.90 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-SF (o/u at 8)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: tomorrow, September 23)
