Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, September 8, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Under the total is 32-12 (+18.80 units) when San Diego faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-SD (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 18-4 (+12.80 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the last six seasons (including 7-0 on the ROAD)
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-122 at TEX)
* Since the start of the 2023 season, money line underdog teams with better SM bullpen ratings have gone 1099-1215, but for +88.11 units (an ROI of 3.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+104 vs NYM), CLEVELAND (-110 vs KC), ST LOUIS (+187 at SEA)
* ATHLETICS letdown in follow-up game after series vs. LAA: 14-20 (41.2%) -9.40 units, ROI: -27.6%
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+144 vs BOS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 59-59 for -15.87 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -13.4% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): NY METS (-126 at PHI)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 159-204 for -46.75 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.9%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (-144 vs CIN), LA ANGELS (-123 vs MIN), ST LOUIS (+187 at SEA)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 317-193 for +13.70 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +2.7%. However, this angle has cooled off dramatically over the last few weeks.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-119 at ATL), SAN FRANCISCO (-192 vs AZ), BOSTON (-176 at ATH), LA DODGERS (-360 vs COL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 130-240 for -34.13 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.2%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+109 at MIA), COLORADO (+278 at LAD), MINNESOTA (+101 at LAA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 105-51 for -9.49 units. We have been hovering the red for about a month now, like usual.
System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-192 vs AZ)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a strong start, 120-42 for +14.61 units, an ROI of +9%.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-360 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, bringing the season record to 398-425 for +41.84 units, ROI +5.1%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+104 vs NYM), CLEVELAND (-110 vs KC), ST LOUIS (+187 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 183-185 for +4.44 units (ROI 1.2%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – WASHINGTON (+109 at MIA), SEATTLE (-232 vs STL), CINCINNATI (+118 at SD)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 216-171 for +4.47 units (ROI 1.2%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-110 vs KC), MILWAUKEE (-122 at TEX)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): KANSAS CITY, LA ANGELS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY handle TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-ATH
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 423-335 for +38.65 units and an ROI of 5.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-110 vs KC), MILWAUKEE (-122 at TEX)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 204-149 for +21.97 units and an ROI of 6.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-125 at PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (-121 at ATL), MILWAUKEE (-122 at TEX)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 125-165 for -37.66 units and an ROI of -13% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-101 vs CHC), TEXAS (+101 vs MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 348-305 but for -85.10 units and an ROI of -13% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-110 vs KC), SAN DIEGO (-144 vs CIN)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 379-324 record for +52.17 units and an ROI of 7.4% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+109 at MIA), MILWAUKEE (-122 at TEX), BOSTON (-176 at ATH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1946-1841 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -253.45 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-122 at TEX), SEATTLE (-232 vs STL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1941-2448 (44.2%) for -208.23 units and an ROI of -4.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-125 at PHI), KANSAS CITY (-109 at CLE), COLORADO (+278 at LAD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3924-3432 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -519.76 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-132 vs WSH), SEATTLE (-232 vs STL), LA DODGERS (-360 vs COL), SAN DIEGO (-144 vs CIN)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 353-179 (66.4%) for +43.50 units and an ROI of 8.2%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-144 vs CIN), SEATTLE (-232 vs STL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 323-287 (53%) for +22.97 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-101 vs CHC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +278 (+45 diff), ST LOUIS +187 (+29), PHILADELPHIA +104 (+21)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS -123 (+31 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -119 (+24)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-MIA OVER 8 (+0.5), CHC-ATL OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MIN-LAA UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(953) NEW YORK-NL (76-67) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (83-60)
Trend: PHI is 3-13 (-11.90 units) in the last 16 vs NY Mets with starter Aaron Nola
Trend: PHI is 11-26 (-13.84 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+104 vs NYM)
(955) CHICAGO-NL (81-62) at (956) ATLANTA (64-79)
Trend: CHC is 19-5 (+11.48 units) as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: CHC is 28-8 (+16.61 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-121 at ATL)
(957) CINCINNATI (72-71) at (958) SAN DIEGO (78-65)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is 20-14 (+7.88 units) vs teams with a winning record in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+118 at SD)
Trend: Under the total is 32-12 (+18.80 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-SD (o/u at 7.5)
(959) ARIZONA (72-72) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (72-71)
Trend: SF is 16-5 (+8.09 units) at home as a favorite vs Divisional opponents with starter Logan Webb in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-192 vs AZ)
Trend: Under the total is 56-38-2 (+14.20 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-SF (o/u at 7.5)
(963) KANSAS CITY (73-70) at (964) CLEVELAND (72-70)
Trend: Under the total is 49-38-1 (+7.20 units) in Royals’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-CLE (o/u at 8)
(965) MINNESOTA (63-80) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (67-76)
Trend: Under the total is 12-6 (+5.29 units) when MIN is a plus-money underdog with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAA (o/u at 9.5)
Trend: MIN is 17-8 (+7.64 units) against teams with a <= 0.500 win pct with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+101 at LAA)
(969) MILWAUKEE (89-55) at (970) TEXAS (74-70)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 18-4 (+12.80 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the last six seasons (including 7-0 on the road)
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-122 at TEX)
Trend: TEX is 18-35 (-14.59 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+101 vs MIL)
Trend: Under the total is 45-26-1 (+16.40 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-TEX (o/u at 8.5)
(971) ST LOUIS (72-72) at (972) SEATTLE (75-68)
Trend: STL is 3-7 (-5.77 units) vs AL West teams with starter Miles Mikolas in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+187 at SEA)
Trend: SEA is 18-4 (+12.63 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-232 vs STL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
COLORADO
Momentum after series vs. SAN DIEGO: 18-15 (54.5%) +8.45 units, ROI: 25.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+278 at LAD)
ATHLETICS
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 14-20 (41.2%) -9.40 units, ROI: -27.6%
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+144 vs BOS)
SAN DIEGO
Momentum after series vs. COLORADO: 22-11 (66.7%) +12.22 units, ROI: 37%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-144 vs CIN)
