The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, April 11, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: DET is 17-8 (+8.74 units) in day game starts with Casey Mize since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-143 vs MIA)

* Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 602-496 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +33.14 units, for an ROI of 3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-149 vs PIT), NY METS (-168 vs ATH)

* Since the start of the 2025 season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 381-226 for +35.29 units (ROI: 5.8%), when not matched against the same.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-194 at TB), BOSTON (-136 at STL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 27-16 start for +2.96 units and an ROI of +6.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-149 vs PIT), BOSTON (-136 at STL), SEATTLE (-149 vs HOU)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are at 7-7 for -0.64 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+119 at DET), CINCINNATI (-136 vs LAA), SAN DIEGO (-168 vs COL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 29-16 start for +4.74 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-194 at TB), BOSTON (-136 at STL)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a 13-18 start for +2.98 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+163 at KC), WASHINGTON (+149 at MIL), HOUSTON (+123 at SEA)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 8-1 for +5.57 units, as big favorites are off to an unusually strong start overall. I would expect this to cool.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-194 at TB), KANSAS CITY (-199 vs CWS)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 13-9 but for -9.55 units so far.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-194 vs TEX)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 9-5 start for -3.19 units.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-194 vs TEX)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a 25-29 start for -0.70 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+119 at DET), BALTIMORE (+100 vs SF)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For w026, they are off to an unusually strong 16-13 start for +5.97 units and an ROI of +20.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 3-10 for -7.45 units and an ROI -57.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3-games – ARIZONA (+113 at PHI), ATHLETICS (+139 at NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (-120 at BAL), ST LOUIS (+113 vs BOS)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks 
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, but it is off to a strangely fast start, 15-8 for +10.45 units.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+123 at SEA)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 7-9 for -5.10 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-136 vs AZ), NY METS (-168 vs ATH), NY YANKEES (-194 at TB), CINCINNATI (-136 vs LAA), MILWAUKEE (-181 vs WSH)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 433-418 (50.9%) for +18.03 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.1%.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-136 vs LAA)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2002-1888 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -253.98 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS, TORONTO, ATLANTA, SEATTLE

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2005-2554 (43.9%) for -250.37 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, MIAMI, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, BOSTON, COLORADO

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4049-3519 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -509.11 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, TAMPA BAY, ATLANTA, SAN DIEGO, SEATTLE, LA DODGERS

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 602-496 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +33.14 units, for an ROI of 3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-149 vs PIT), NY METS (-168 vs ATH)

Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 370-183 (66.9%) for +53.44 units and an ROI of 9.7%!
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-194 vs TEX)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 66-40 SU for +11.39 units (ROI: 10.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-136 at STL)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 452-511 SU but for +71.45 units (ROI: 7.4%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 158-165 SU for +42.11 units in the last 323 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+119 at DET), MINNESOTA (+100 at TOR), COLORADO (+139 at SD), HOUSTON (+123 at SEA), TEXAS (+159 at LAD)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS +172 (+18 diff), TAMPA BAY +159 (+17)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -118 (+29 diff), SEATTLE -149 (+21), MILWAUKEE -181 (+16)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-CHC OVER 6.5 (+1.4), HOU-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.9), WSH-MIL OVER 8 (+0.6)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-KC UNDER 9 (-0.5), BOS-STL UNDER 8 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(903) PITTSBURGH (8-5) at (904) CHICAGO-NL (6-7)
Trend: Edward Cabrera is 6-12 (-4.24 units) starting against teams with a >57% win pct in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-149 vs PIT)

(911) CHICAGO-AL (5-9) at (912) KANSAS CITY (6-8)
Trend: Erick Fedde is 3-15 (-11.80 units) in his last 18 starts as a road underdog
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+163 at KC)

Trend: KC is 10-3 (+7.33 units) in home divisional games with starter Michael Wacha since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-199 vs CWS)

(915) HOUSTON (6-8) at (916) SEATTLE (5-9)
Trend: Under the total is 11-3-1 (+7.95 units), going under the listed total by 1.43 runs on average, when starter Luis Castillo faces teams with a <= 45% win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 7.5)

(917) MIAMI (8-6) at (918) DETROIT (5-9)
Trend: DET is 17-8 (+8.74 units) in day game starts with Casey Mize since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-143 vs MIA)

(927) BOSTON (4-9) at (928) ST LOUIS (8-5)
Trend: Ranger Suarez is 16-7 (+5.56 units) vs NL Central teams in the last 4+ seasons
Trend: Ranger Suarez is 12-9 (+4.38 units) in road night game starts against teams with a winning record in the last 4+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-136 at STL)

(929) TEXAS (7-6) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (10-3)
Trend: TEX is 8-15 (-7.08 units) when facing teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+159 at LAD)

Series #9: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City, Thu 4/9-Sun 4/12
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 24-5 (82.8%, +17.03 units) versus the Chicago White Sox.
– The ROI on this trend is 58.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-199 vs CWS)

Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Fri 4/10-Sun 4/12
Trend: Pittsburgh is 12-24 (33.3%, -8.63 units) in their last 36 games at Wrigley Field
– The ROI on this trend is -24%
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+123 at CHC)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): CLEVELAND

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, NY METS, CINCINNATI, SAN FRANCISCO, CLEVELAND, BOSTON, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%. 
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO, KANSAS CITY, NY METS, CINCINNATI, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CWS-KC, LAA-CIN

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday 4/13)

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