Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, April 4, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 444-504 SU but for +68.52 units since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+135 at DET), SAN DIEGO (+123 at BOS)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 397-338 record for +56.39 units and an ROI of 7.7% since the start of the ’22 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE GAME 1 (-115 at KC)
* Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 79-124 SU (-25.28 units) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+119 at TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+123 vs TOR)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 24-10 (+7.98 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-169 vs STL), ATHLETICS (-105 vs HOU)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 4-3 (+0.90 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE GAME 2 (-110 at KC), TEXAS (-143 vs CIN)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks of 2025. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 16-11 (+1.41 units).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-308 at WSH)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For the ’26 season, these teams have a record of 6-10 (-2.60 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+244 vs LAD), MINNESOTA (-112 vs TB), COLORADO (+194 vs PHI)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 6-1 (+3.57 units).
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-199 vs MIA)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 8-5 (-4.92 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-308 at WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-240 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 9-15 (-4.33 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (-105 vs HOU), SAN DIEGO (+123 at BOS), MILWAUKEE GAME 2 (-110 at KC), CLEVELAND (+113 vs CHC), ATLANTA (-105 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice FADE system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026. For the 2026 season, these teams have started unusually fast with a record of 8-1 (+9.38 units).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+244 vs LAD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 208-160 for +12.67 units and an ROI of 3.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE GAME 1 (-115 at KC)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 134-167 for -30.18 units and an ROI of -10% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY GAME 1 (-105 vs MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 397-338 record for +56.39 units and an ROI of 7.7% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE GAME 1 (-115 at KC)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 432-412 (51.2%) for +23.57 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+244 vs LAD), COLORADO (+194 vs PHI), SAN FRANCISCO (-108 vs NYM)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1,994-1,878 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -248.58 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, ATHLETICS, NY METS
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1990-2537 (44%) for -247.22 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, MIAMI, SAN DIEGO, CHICAGO CUBS, ATLANTA
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4030-3499 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -503.59 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, NY YANKEES, BOSTON, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, ATHLETICS
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 594-488 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +35.07 units, for an ROI of 3.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY GAME 1 (-105 vs MIL), LA ANGELS (+139 vs SEA), ARIZONA (-115 vs ATL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 329-294 (52.8%) for +21.26 units and an ROI of 3.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+244 vs LAD)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 79-124 SU (-25.28 units) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+119 at TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+123 vs TOR)
Bats revert to the mean after a high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 140-98-17 (58.8%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-ATH (o/u at 10)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 444-504 SU but for +68.52 units since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+135 at DET), SAN DIEGO (+123 at BOS)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +244 (+49 diff), COLORADO +199 (+27), KANSAS CITY GAME 2 -110 (+23), CLEVELAND +113 (+18)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: TORONTO -149 (+22)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIL-KC GAME 2 OVER 8 (+0.8), TB-MIN OVER 7.5 (+0.7), MIA-NYY OVER 7.5 (+0.5), CIN-TEX OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
MLB Team/Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) LOS ANGELES-NL (5-2) at (952) WASHINGTON (3-4)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 44-14 (+11.34 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in L6+ seasons
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 13-3 (+6.20 units) vs NL East teams in L6+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-308 at WSH)
(953) ATLANTA (6-2) at (954) ARIZONA (3-5)
Trend: Mike Soroka is 3-13 (-10.82 units) in the -120 to +115 line range the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-115 vs ATL)
(969) BALTIMORE (3-4) at (970) PITTSBURGH (4-3)
Trend: Shane Baz is 20-9 (+11.33 units) within the -130 to +125 line range since start of ’24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-102 at PIT)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): BALTIMORE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, MILWAUKEE GAME 1, MILWAUKEE GAME 2, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, NY YANKEES, TEXAS, CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, BOSTON, NY YANKEES, TEXAS, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, it is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-LAA
