Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, August 2, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 334-217 for +77.90 units, and an ROI of 14.1%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-126 vs HOU), MIAMI (-115 vs NYY), ATHLETICS (-120 vs AZ), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+123 at LAA)
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 32-12 (72.7%, +22.78 units) in L44 meetings
– The ROI on this trend is 51.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-163 vs MIN)
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 219-145 in their last 364 tries (+32.98 units, ROI: 9.1%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-149 vs STL)
Trend: Austin Gomber isn’t good when overmatched on paper, just 5-21 (-10.32 units) as a large underdog of +175 or more
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+179 vs PIT)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 145-90 for +42.90 units, and an ROI of 18.3%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-126 vs HOU), MIAMI (-115 vs NYY), ATHLETICS (-120 vs AZ), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+123 at LAA)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 44-42 for -8.39 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -9.8% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-115 vs DET), ATLANTA (-123 at CIN)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 122-155 for -35.60 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.9%. fade these qualifiers almost anytime they come up.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+104 at BOS)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 259-134 for +45.15 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +11.5%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-226 vs BAL), PITTSBURGH (-221 at COL), MILWAUKEE (-188 at WSH), NY METS (-200 vs SF)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 105-197 for -33.33 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+179 vs PIT)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have finally gone negative after an uncustomary good start, 76-36 for -5.30 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-226 vs BAL), PITTSBURGH (-221 at COL), NY METS (-200 vs SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. That is happening big time, as we are well in the black with a season record of 307-309 for +44.11 units, ROI +7.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+119 at TOR), DETROIT (-105 at PHI), CINCINNATI (+101 vs ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+123 at LAA)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 168-125 for +16.70 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+119 at TOR), BOSTON (-126 vs HOU), CLEVELAND (-163 vs MIN), MIAMI (-115 vs NYY), ATHLETICS (-120 vs AZ), SAN DIEGO (-149 vs STL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and a ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): DETROIT, ATLANTA, ATHLETICS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, CHICAGO CUBS, DETROIT, NY YANKEES, ATHLETICS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season, when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, ATHLETICS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-COL, CWS-LAA
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 406-392 (50.9%) for +18.58 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.3%.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+153 vs MIL)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1879-1781 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -247.11 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-183 at WSH), WASHINGTON (+153 vs MIL), KANSAS CITY (+119 at TOR), NY YANKEES (-106 at MIA), MIAMI (-115 vs NYY), PITTSBURGH (-221 at COL), COLORADO (+179 vs PIT)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1872-2378 (44%) for -212.03 units and a ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+178 at CHC), HOUSTON (+104 at BOS), MINNESOTA (+133 at CLE), ST LOUIS (+123 at SD), ARIZONA (-102 at ATH)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,803-3,328 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -507.89 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-115 vs DET), WASHINGTON (+153 vs MIL), MIAMI (-115 vs NYY), COLORADO (+179 vs PIT), ATHLETICS (-120 vs AZ)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 559-470 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.65 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-101 vs LAD), CLEVELAND (-163 vs MIN), SAN DIEGO (-149 vs STL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 312-275 (53.2%) for +22.30 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+153 vs MIL), COLORADO (+179 vs PIT)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 242-250 run (+17.01 units, ROI: 3.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-101 vs LAD), NY METS (-199 vs SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 166-129 (+17.01 units, ROI: 5.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-149 vs STL)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 219-145 in their last 364 tries (+32.98 units, ROI: 9.1%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-149 vs STL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: KANSAS CITY +119 (+15 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH -221 (+45 diff), BOSTON -126 (+34), LA DODGERS -121 (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-CLE OVER 7 (+1.0), NYY-MIA OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-BOS UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), SF-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), STL-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) PITTSBURGH (47-63) at (902) COLORADO (29-80)
Trend: COL is 4-12 (-8.27 units) vs NL Central opponents with starter Austin Gomber over the last four seasons
Trend: Austin Gomber not good when overmatched on paper, just 5-21 (-10.32 units) as a large underdog of +175 or more
Trend: COL is 3-11 (-4.87 units) in day games with starter Austin Gomber since start of 2024 season
Trends Match (FADE): COLORADO (+178 vs PIT)
Trend: Under the total is 29-15-1 (+12.50 units) in Rockies’ day games this season
Trend: Under the total is 28-16-1 (+10.40 units) in Pirates’ day games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-COL (o/u at 10.5)
(905) SAN FRANCISCO (55-55) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (62-48)
Trend: Over the total is 19-11-2 (+6.90 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-NYM (o/u at 8.5)
(909) ST LOUIS (55-56) at (910) SAN DIEGO (61-49)
Trend: SD is 11-2 (+9.20 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-149 vs STL)
(911) KANSAS CITY (55-55) at (912) TORONTO (64-47)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 22-7 (+11.12 units) in the last 29 day game starts
Trend: TOR is 18-10 (+9.22 units) vs LH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-144 vs KC)
(913) MINNESOTA (51-58) at (914) CLEVELAND (55-54)
Trend: MIN is 21-32 (-19.56 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+133 at CLE)
(915) HOUSTON (62-48) at (916) BOSTON (60-51)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 17-8 vs AL teams (+7.25 units) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-126 vs HOU)
(917) TEXAS (57-54) at (918) SEATTLE (59-52)
Trend: SEA is 4-0 (+4.00 units) in Luis Castillo’s last four starts versus Texas
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-125 vs TEX)
(921) LOS ANGELES-NL (64-46) at (922) TAMPA BAY (54-57)
Trend: Under the total is 20-10 (+9.00 units) when TB faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-TB (o/u at 8.5)
(923) BALTIMORE (50-60) at (924) CHICAGO-NL (64-45)
Trend: CHC is 34-17 (+9.31 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-226 vs BAL)
(925) DETROIT (64-47) at (926) PHILADELPHIA (62-47)
Trend: PHI is 25-11 (+7.66 units) in the last 36 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-115 vs DET)
Trend: PHI is 12-18 (-12.67 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-115 vs DET)
(927) NEW YORK-AL (60-50) at (928) MIAMI (53-55)
Trend: MIA is 0-8 (-10.41 units) as a short favorite (within line range of -115 to -140) with starter Eury Perez since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-115 vs NYY)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #6: Minnesota at Cleveland, Fri 8/1-Sun 8/3
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 32-12 (72.7%, +22.78 units) in the last 44 meetings
– The ROI on this trend is 51.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-163 vs MIN)
Series #14: St Louis at San Diego, Fri 8/1-Sun 8/3
Trend: Home teams are 19-8 (70.4%, +9.16 units) in the last 27 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 33.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-149 vs STL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Monday, August 11)
