Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, August 30, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 13-23 (-24.03 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-144 vs MIL)
* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 352-176 (66.7%) for +48.94 units and an ROI of 9.3%!
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-174 vs MIA)
Trend: PHI is 19-1 (+17.20 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since start of 2024 season (including 11-0 (+11.00 units) versus teams with a losing record)
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-150 vs ATL)
* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 125-128 (-53.42 units, ROI: -21.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-226 at CWS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 55-51 for -9.59 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -9% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TORONTO (-144 vs MIL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 147-197 for -47.69 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.9%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become as reliable of as almost anything else on this report. This angle is 44-65 for -17.16 units since the All-Star Break
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+113 vs TEX)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 303-180 for +20.89 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +4.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-158 at MIN), LA DODGERS (-226 vs AZ)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 123-229 for -33.75 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.6%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+133 vs TB), COLORADO (+168 vs CHC)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an uncustomary good start, 100-47 for -5.47 units. We have been hovering the red for about three weeks now, like usual.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-226 vs AZ)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a strong start, 117-38 for +20.10 units, an ROI of +13%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-226 at CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (-207 at COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 76-31 for +7.13 units. Still, we remain very close to going into the usual negative territory.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-226 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. This season’s record stands at 377-400 for +40.8 units, ROI +5.3%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+118 at TOR), MIAMI (+142 at NYM), ST LOUIS (+119 at CIN), CLEVELAND (+117 vs SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (-101 vs BAL), ATHLETICS (+113 vs TEX)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 81-83, -8.11 units for the year.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3-games – ARIZONA (+182 at LAD), TEXAS (-137 at ATH)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 156-213 for -20.87 units, an ROI of -5.7%. After a couple of rough weeks, this is now back at “average performing level,” so we will continue to monitor it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+133 vs TB), CINCINNATI (-145 vs STL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+182 vs NYY), LA ANGELS (+138 at HOU), BALTIMORE (-121 at SF), COLORADO (+168 vs CHC)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 207-159 for +10.01 units (ROI 2.7%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-226 at CWS), HOUSTON (-169 vs LAA), CLEVELAND (+117 vs SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (-101 vs BAL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of ASB ’25, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): MILWAUKEE, BALTIMORE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, TAMPA BAY, BOSTON, SAN DIEGO, BALTIMORE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-MIN
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 418-401 (51%) for +22.93 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.8%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+182 vs NYY)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1925-1825 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -256.76 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-187 vs MIA), MIAMI (+142 at NYM), NY YANKEES (-226 at CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (-207 at COL), SAN FRANCISCO (-101 vs BAL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1923-2436 (44.1%) for -215.44 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+122 at PHI), LA ANGELS (+128 at HOU)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3902-3404 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -507 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-143 vs STL), NY METS (-187 vs MIA), CLEVELAND (+119 vs SEA), MINNESOTA (+145 vs SD), COLORADO (+168 vs CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (-101 vs BAL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 575-478 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.49 units, for an ROI of 2.6%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-150 vs ATL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 352-176 (66.7%) for +48.94 units and an ROI of 9.3%!
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-174 vs MIA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 249-257 run (+17.47 units, ROI: 3.5%).
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-121 at SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 72-59 (+16.97 units, ROI: 13%) in their last 131 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-101 vs BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 167-136 (+8.19 units, ROI: 2.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-101 vs BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 229-149 in their last 378 tries (+37.19 units, ROI: 9.8%).
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-226 at CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 125-128 (-53.42 units, ROI: -21.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-226 at CWS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO -101 (+42 diff), CLEVELAND +117 (+31), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +182 (+22), ATHLETICS +113 (+21)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -207 (+30 diff), CINCINNATI -145 (+23)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-WSH OVER 8.5 (+0.6), NYY-CWS OVER 8.5 (+0.5), SEA-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEX-ATH UNDER 10 (-0.5), BAL-SF UNDER 8 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) MIAMI (63-72) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (73-62)
Trend: MIA is most profitable team in MLB as ML underdog this season (46-50 record, +16.94 units)
Trend: MIA is 2-6 (-3.00 units) on the ROAD vs NYM/ATL with starter Edward Cabrera in the last four seasons
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MIAMI (+142 at NYM)
(903) ATLANTA (61-74) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (78-57)
Trend: PHI is 19-1 (+17.20 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since start of 2024 season (including 11-0 (+11.00 units) versus teams with a losing record)
Trend: PHI is 23-5 (+13.53 units) in the favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the ’24 season
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-150 vs ATL)
(905) ST LOUIS (67-69) at (906) CINCINNATI (68-67)
Trend: Under the total is 49-28-6 (+18.20 units) in Reds’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-CIN (o/u at 8)
(907) CHICAGO-NL (77-58) at (908) COLORADO (38-97)
Trend: COL is 22-58 (-18.14 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+168 vs CHC)
(909) ARIZONA (67-69) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (77-58)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 39-13 (+8.60 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-225 vs AZ)
(913) LOS ANGELES-AL (62-72) at (914) HOUSTON (75-60)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 5-21 (-15.46 units)
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+128 at HOU)
(915) SEATTLE (72-63) at (916) CLEVELAND (67-66)
Trend: SEA is 32-53 (-20.48 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at CLE)
(917) DETROIT (79-57) at (918) KANSAS CITY (69-66)
Trend: Under the total is 40-25-1 (+12.50 units) in Royals’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-KC (o/u at 9)
(921) MILWAUKEE (84-52) at (922) TORONTO (78-57)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 13-23 (-24.03 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-144 vs MIL)
(925) PITTSBURGH (60-76) at (926) BOSTON (75-61)
Trend: Under the total is 38-25-3 (+10.50 units) in Pirates’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-BOS (o/u at 9)
(927) SAN DIEGO (75-60) at (928) MINNESOTA (61-73)
Trend: Under the total is 50-36-3 (+10.50 units) in Padres’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-MIN (o/u at 9)
(929) BALTIMORE (60-75) at (930) SAN FRANCISCO (67-68)
Trend: Over the total is 26-15-3 (+9.50 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-SF (o/u at 8)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Monday, September 1)
