Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, August 9, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: MIA is the most profitable MLB team in day games this season (29-21, +15.09 units)
Trend: ATL is the least profitable MLB team in day games this season (12-25, -25.35 units)
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI GAME 1 (-110 at ATL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 272-147 for +38.14 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +9.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-108 at NYY), TEXAS (-137 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (-139 vs BOS), LA DODGERS (-164 vs TOR)
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 223-147 in their last 370 tries (+34.00 units, ROI: 9.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-137 vs NYM), SEATTLE (-126 vs TB)
Trend: CINCINNATI is 5-17 (22.7%, -13.30 units) in the last 22 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -60.5%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-108 at PIT)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 170-115 for +46.27 units, and an ROI of 16.2%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+112 at DET), TEXAS (-137 vs PHI), ST LOUIS (-108 vs CHC), SAN DIEGO (-139 vs BOS), LA DODGERS (-164 vs TOR)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 125-166 for -44.16 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15.2%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+109 vs CLE), NY METS (+118 at MIL), MIAMI GAME 1 (-110 at ATL), MIAMI GAME 2 (-114 at ATL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 272-147 for +38.14 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +9.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-108 at NYY), TEXAS (-137 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (-139 vs BOS), LA DODGERS (-164 vs TOR)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 109-205 for -34.94 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.1%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+138 at SF), COLORADO (+186 at AZ)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 107-33 for +23.67 units, an ROI of 16.9%.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-231 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 70-29 for +5.06 units. Still, we remain somewhat close to going into the usual negative territory.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-231 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. That is happening big time, as we are rolling lately, and the season record stands at 323-325 for +47.81 units, ROI +7.4%. This comes after a breakout 65-56, +27.43-unit surge since the ASB!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-108 at NYY), LA ANGELS (+112 at DET), MIAMI GAME 1 (-110 at ATL), ST LOUIS (-108 vs CHC), TAMPA BAY (+116 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 149-160 for -7.28 units (ROI -2.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 74-44 for -2.31 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – MINNESOTA (-106 vs KC), SEATTLE (-141 vs TB)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and after a huge four-and-a-half week run of +18.81 units, it is now 180-133 for +18.38 units (ROI 5.9%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-168 vs WSH), CLEVELAND (-133 at CWS), MILWAUKEE (-143 vs NYM)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): MIAMI GAME 1, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, BOSTON, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, TEXAS, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-ATL GAME 1, NYM-MIL
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1889-1790 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -249.09 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-133 at CWS), PHILADELPHIA (+112 at TEX), MINNESOTA (+101 vs KC), BOSTON (+114 at SD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1886-2388 (44.1%) for -206.06 units and a ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-108 at PIT), ATHLETICS (-105 at BAL), NY METS (+112 at MIL), CHICAGO CUBS (-111 at STL), COLORADO (+186 at AZ), TAMPA BAY (+104 at SEA), TORONTO (+135 at LAD), WASHINGTON (+138 at SF)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3824-3347 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -510.38 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-137 vs LAA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+109 vs CLE), MINNESOTA (+101 vs KC), ST LOUIS (-110 vs CHC), ARIZONA (-231 vs COL), LA DODGERS (-165 vs TOR), SAN FRANCISCO (-168 vs WSH)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 563-472 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +24.57 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-139 vs BOS)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 244-250 run (+19.01 units, ROI: 3.8%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+112 at MIL)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 223-147 in their last 370 tries (+34.00 units, ROI: 9.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-137 vs NYM), SEATTLE (-126 vs TB)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO -139 (+25 diff), TEXAS -137 (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-SF OVER 8 (+0.9), CLE-CWS OVER 8.5 (+0.5), KC-MIN OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATH-BAL UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), COL-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) MIAMI (57-58) at (952) ATLANTA (48-67) (DH Game #1)
Trend: MIA is 29-21 (+15.09 units) in day games this season
Trend: ATL is 12-25 (-25.35 units) in day games this season
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI GAME 1 (-111 at ATL)
(953) WASHINGTON (45-70) at (954) SAN FRANCISCO (59-57)
Trend: WSH is 14-34 (-19.30 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+138 at SF)
Trend: Under the total is 48-30-2 (+15.00 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-SF (o/u at 8)
(955) CINCINNATI (60-57) at (956) PITTSBURGH (51-66)
Trend: CIN is 2-8 (-5.19 units) as a road underdog vs NL opponents with starter Nick Martinez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-108 at PIT)
Trend: Under the total is 50-27-4 (+20.30 units) when CIN faces RH starters this season
Trend: Under the total is 53-25-4 (+14.50 units) when PIT faces RH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-PIT (o/u at 8)
(957) NEW YORK-NL (63-53) at (958) MILWAUKEE (71-44)
Trend: MIL is 37-20 (+10.85 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-137 vs NYM)
(959) MIAMI (57-58) at (960) ATLANTA (48-67) (DH Game #2)
Trend: Under the total is 14-3-1 (+10.60 units) when Erick Fedde is within -155 to +148 line range in night games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-ATL GAME 2 (o/u at 8.5)
(961) CHICAGO-NL (66-49) at (962) ST LOUIS (59-58)
Trend: Colin Rea has been good in the -120 to +135 line range (25-11 record, +15.43 units) since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-112 at STL)
(963) COLORADO (30-85) at (964) ARIZONA (55-61)
Trend: COL is 4-27 (-20.73 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+186 at AZ)
(965) HOUSTON (65-51) at (966) NEW YORK-AL (61-55)
Trend: HOU is 18-12 (+10.14 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend: HOU is 9-4 (+4.89 units) as a slight underdog (between -108 to +105) with starter Framber Valdez in the last six seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-108 at NYY)
(967) LOS ANGELES-AL (55-61) at (968) DETROIT (67-50)
Trend: Under the total is 16-4-2 (+11.65 units) when Charlie Morton is a -134 favorite or higher since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-DET (o/u at 8.5)
(969) ATHLETICS (51-67) at (970) BALTIMORE (53-63)
Trend: Under the total is 37-24-3 (+10.60 units) in Orioles’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-BAL (o/u at 9.5)
(975) TAMPA BAY (57-60) at (976) SEATTLE (64-53)
Trend: Over the total is 52-31-4 (+17.90 units) when SEA faces RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-SEA (o/u at 8)
(977) PHILADELPHIA (66-49) at (978) TEXAS (60-57)
Trend: Under the total is 33-20-4 (+11.00 units) in Phillies’ road games this season
Trend: Under the total is 37-20-1 (+15.00 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-TEX (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: TEX is 10-20 (-10.61 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-137 vs PHI)
(979) BOSTON (65-52) at (980) SAN DIEGO (64-52)
Trend: Lucas Giolito is 13-18 in his last 31 starts against the NL (-7.05 units)
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (+114 at SD)
(981) TORONTO (68-49) at (982) LOS ANGELES-NL (67-49)
Trend: TOR is 20-11 (+10.22 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+135 at LAD)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Thu 8/7-Sun 8/10
Trend: CINCINNATI is 5-17 (22.7%, -13.30 units) in the last 22 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -60.5%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-108 at PIT)
Series #16: Kansas City at Minnesota, Fri 8/8-Sun 8/10
Trend: Home teams in the Kansas City-Minnesota AL Central rivalry are on a 35-11 (76.1%, +23.82 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 51.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-106 vs KC)
Series #21: Houston at NY Yankees, Fri 8/8-Sun 8/10
Trend: The YANKEES are on a 9-2 (81.8%, +8.89 units) run versus Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is 80.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-112 vs HOU)
Series #26: Philadelphia at Texas, Fri 8/8-Sun 8/10
Trend: Home teams are 8-1 (88.9%, +7.25 units) in the last nine games of interleague series between the Rangers and Phillies.
– The ROI on this trend is 80.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-137 vs PHI)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, August 11)
