The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, July 26, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Home teams are 18-6 (75%, +10.92 units) in the last 24 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 45.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-156 vs SD) 

* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 337-171 (66.3%) for +42.40 units and an ROI of 8.3%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY GAME 1 (-115 vs. CLE), BALTIMORE (-268 vs. COL) 

Trend: Under the total is 17-2 (+14.65 units) in the last 19 games when starter Andrew Heaney is within the -130 to +119 line range
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-PIT (o/u at 8.5)

* Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 216-143 in their last 359 tries (+32.40 units, ROI: 9%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-106 at SF) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 133-87 for +32.98 units, and an ROI of 15%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-144 vs. LAD) 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 114-146 for -33.26 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-112 vs. ATL), CHICAGO CUBS (-194 at CWS), SAN DIEGO (+126 at STL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 247-126 for +45.79 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +12.3%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-126 vs. TB), HOUSTON (-194 vs. ATH), BOSTON (-144 vs. LAD)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 100-191 for -36.30 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.5%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+213 at BAL), WASHINGTON (+201 at MIN) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 74-32 for +1.97 units. This remains a winning first-half angle, although we are still very close to going red.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-194 vs. ATH), BALTIMORE (-268 vs. COL), MINNESOTA (-252 vs. WSH) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 102-32 for +21.63 units, a ROI of 16.1%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-194 at CWS) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 68-28 for +5.26 units. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-194 at CWS) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 288-292 for +34.78 units, ROI +6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND GAME 1 (-106 at KC), CLEVELAND GAME 2 (+112 at KC), TORONTO (+162 at DET), PITTSBURGH (+113 vs. AZ), SAN DIEGO (+126 at STL), LA ANGELS (+113 vs. SEA) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 132-141 for -7.34 units (ROI -2.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 69-65, +0.96 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 vs CHC), ATHLETICS (+157 at HOU), LA DODGERS (+119 at BOS), ST LOUIS (-154 vs. SD)
3-games – COLORADO (+213 at BAL), MIAMI (+137 at MIL)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. It is now 155-118 for +9.36 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+162 at DET), TEXAS (-112 vs. ATL) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star Break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND GAME 1, TEXAS, ST LOUIS, BOSTON, KANSAS CITY GAME 2 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their best overall in divisional games since the start of 2024, going 670-692 (49.2%) for -27.82 units and an ROI of -2.0%. This is about five full percentage points better for return. If you’re looking for a spot where these majorities are even better, try getting behind them when they back the underdogs in these divisional contests. In those games, these have gone 95-106 (47.3%) for -0.62 units and an ROI of -0.3%. This advantage is even greater and an indication that bettors do well when going against the grain.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CLEVELAND GAME 1, HOUSTON, CLEVELAND GAME 2, SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, TEXAS, BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA, CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, BOSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in 2025. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and a ROI of -13.1% 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-KC GAME 1, TB-CIN, COL-BAL 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 320-283 but for -81.98 units and a ROI of -13.6% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY GAME 1 (-115 vs. CLE) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 406-390 (51%) for +21.55 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (+108 vs. PHI), HOUSTON (-193 vs. ATH)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1865-1773 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -254.78 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-132 at NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 vs. CHC), ATHLETICS (+157 at HOU) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1858-2360 (44%) for -210.03 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-137 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (+103 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (+128 at STL), WASHINGTON (+201 at MIN), SEATTLE (-137 at LAA) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3770-3315 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -524.72 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (+108 vs. PHI), KANSAS CITY GAME 1 (-115 vs. CLE), BALTIMORE (-268 vs. COL), CINCINNATI (-125 vs. TB), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 vs. CHC), TEXAS (-116 vs. ATL) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 337-171 (66.3%) for +42.40 units and an ROI of 8.3%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY GAME 1 (-115 vs. CLE), BALTIMORE (-268 vs. COL)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 310-274 (53.1%) for +22.27 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-193 vs. ATH)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 240-248 run (+18.35 units, ROI: 3.8%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+128 at STL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 162-125 (+18.86 units, ROI: 6.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-106 at SF) 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 216-143 in their last 359 tries (+32.40 units, ROI: 9%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-106 at SF)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +201 (+20 diff), TORONTO +162 (+16), SAN DIEGO +126 (+16), COLORADO +213 (+15)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CINCINNATI -125 (+24 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATH-HOU OVER 7.5 (+0.6), LAD-BOS OVER 8.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-BAL UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) ARIZONA (51-53) at (952) PITTSBURGH (42-62)
Trend: AZ hasn’t been good at night (32-35, -12.87 units)
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-137 at PIT)

Trend: Under the total is 17-2 (+14.65 units) in the last 19 games when starter Andrew Heaney is within the -130 to +119 line range
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-PIT (o/u at 8.5) 

(955) SAN DIEGO (55-49) at (956) ST LOUIS (54-51)
Trend: STL is 31-20 (+8.83 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-156 vs. SD)

(957) NEW YORK-NL (60-44) at (958) SAN FRANCISCO (54-50)
Trend: NYM is 3-10 (-7.97 units) on the road within line range -129 to +129 with starter David Peterson since start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-106 at SF)

Trend: SF is 12-4 (+7.37 units) in NIGHT games with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: SF is 13-3 (+11.11 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-115 vs. NYM)

Trend: Under the total is 14-3 (+10.80 units) when SF is a favorite with starter Robbie Ray since the start of 2024 season
Trend: Under the total is 15-9 (+5.20 units) when NYM is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-SF (o/u at 7.5)

(959) TORONTO (62-42) at (960) DETROIT (60-45)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 6-12 (-5.02 units) as a road night underdog since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+162 at DET)

Trend: Tarik Skubal is 18-3 (+12.84 units) in his last 21 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-199 vs. TOR) 

(963) CLEVELAND (51-51) at (964) KANSAS CITY (50-53)  (DH Game #2)
Trend: CLE is 27-9 (+17.48 units) within the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee since the start of 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND GAME 2 (*if they fall into this line range, +112 currently) 

(965) SEATTLE (55-49) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (50-54)
Trend: SEA is 19-8 (+6.15 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-137 at LAA)

Trend: Tyler Anderson is 21-12 (+13.26 units) vs AL West teams in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+113 vs. SEA) 

(967) PHILADELPHIA (59-44) at (968) NEW YORK-AL (56-47)
Trend: NYY is 2-7 (-4.47 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+108 vs. PHI) 

(969) TAMPA BAY (53-51) at (970) CINCINNATI (54-50)
Trend: Under the total is 9-1-1 (+7.80 units) when TB is a plus-money night underdog with starter Ryan Pepiot since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: Under the total is 37-20-2 (+15.00 units) when CIN is a ML favorite this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CIN (o/u at 9) 

(971) ATLANTA (44-58) at (972) TEXAS (54-50)
Trend: ATL is the worst team to bet on the road this season (18-32 record, -24.48 units)
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-104 at TEX) 

(973) COLORADO (27-76) at (974) BALTIMORE (45-58)
Trend: COL is 3-23 (-17.90 units) vs. LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+213 at BAL) 

(975) WASHINGTON (41-62) at (976) MINNESOTA (50-53)
Trend: MIN is 7-12 (-7.34 units) vs. LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-252 vs. WSH)

Trend: MIN is 22-4 (+15.53 units) vs teams with a winning percentage of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-252 vs. WSH) 

(979) LOS ANGELES-NL (61-43) at (980) BOSTON (55-50)
Trend: Over the total is 6-1 (+4.90 units) when LAD is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAD-BOS (o/u at 8.5)

(981) CLEVELAND (51-51) at (982) KANSAS CITY (50-53)  (DH Game #1)
Trend: KC is 8-2 (+6.33 units) in home divisional games with starter Michael Wacha since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY GAME 1 (-115 vs. CLE)

Series #1: Athletics at Houston, Thu 7/24-Sun 7/27
Trend: The Athletics are 13-28 (31.7%, -7.04 units) in their last 41 games vs. Houston
–  The ROI on this trend is -17.2%.
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+157 at HOU) 

Series #14: San Diego at St Louis, Thu 7/24-Sun 7/27
Trend: Home teams are 18-6 (75%, +10.92 units) in the last 24 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 45.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-156 vs. SD)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Thursday, July 31)