The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, March 28, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 434-491 SU but for +68.09 units since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+135 at BAL), PITTSBURGH (+144 at NYM), ATHLETICS (+159 at TOR), CLEVELAND (+153 at SEA), KANSAS CITY (+129 at ATL), COLORADO (+159 at MIA) 

Trend: SEA is 20-4 (+14.63 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-186 vs CLE) 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in am MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-199 vs CWS)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
 In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. For the ’26 season, the record is 5-3 (-0.44 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-226 vs WSH), TEXAS (-105 at PHI) 

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks of 2025. For the 2026 season, the record is 4-5 (-2.23 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-246 vs ARI), SEATTLE (-186 vs CLE), TEXAS (-105 at PHI), BOSTON (-156 at CIN)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For the ’26 season, the record is 1-1 (+0.89 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+184 at CHC), COLORADO (+159 at MIA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+163 at MIL)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The ’25 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-226 vs WSH) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. For the 2026 season, the record is 1-0 (+1.00 unit).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-193 vs COL), LA DODGERS (-246 vs ARI), TORONTO (-193 vs ATH), MILWAUKEE (-199 vs CWS) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. For the 2026 season, the record is 2-0 (+2.00 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-193 vs COL), TORONTO (-193 vs ATH), MILWAUKEE (-199 vs CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in ’25, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! For the ’26 season, the record is 1-4 (-2.41 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+149 at NYM), CLEVELAND (+153 at SEA), TAMPA BAY (-108 at STL), TEXAS (-105 at PHI), KANSAS CITY (+129 at ATL), SAN FRANCISCO (+109 at NYY0, SAN DIEGO (-105 vs DET) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For 2025, they were an uncustomary 220-211 for +18.9 units (ROI 4.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+123 at HOU), NY YANKEES (-131 at SF), DETROIT (-115 at SD)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 155-63 for +13.14 units and an ROI of 6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-246 vs ARI) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 625-717 record but for +32.55 units and an ROI of 2.4% since the start of the ’22 season
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+199 at LAD)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1983-1868 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -247.88 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, NY METS, WASHINGTON, MILWAUKEE 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1975-2517 (44%) for -246.05 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MINNESOTA, ATHLETICS, KANSAS CITY, CLEVELAND, COLORADO

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4007-3485 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -504.08 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, SEATTLE, ATLANTA, LA DODGERS 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 325-292 (52.7%) for +19.34 units and an ROI of 3.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-112 vs TB) 

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 61-32 SU for +16.84 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET
WATCH FOR TAMPA BAY at STL (-108 AS OF MORNING) 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 434-491 SU but for +68.09 units since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+135 at BAL), PITTSBURGH (+144 at NYM), ATHLETICS (+159 at TOR), CLEVELAND (+153 at SEA), KANSAS CITY (+129 at ATL), COLORADO (+159 at MIA)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATHLETICS +159 (+36 diff), CINCINNATI +129 (+30), SAN DIEGO -105 (+29), WASHINGTON +184 (+25) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ST LOUIS -112 (+17 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-STL OVER 7.5 (+1.0), ATH-TOR OVER 8 (+0.6) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-CHC UNDER 9 (-0.9), ARI-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.5), LAA-HOU UNDER 9 (-0.5) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(903) COLORADO (0-1) at (904) MIAMI (1-0)
Trend: MIA is 4-10 (-8.00 units) against NL Central/West opponents with starter Eury Perez the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-186 vs COL) 

(905) PITTSBURGH (0-1) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (1-0)
Trend: PIT is 10-24 (-10.14 units) vs teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: PIT is 13-21 (-7.66 units) vs NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: NYM is 19-6 (+8.89 units) as a -130 favorite or higher with starter David Peterson since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): NY METS (-175 vs PIT) 

(907) ARIZONA (0-2) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (2-0)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 43-14 (+10.34 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-246 vs ARI) 

(911) MINNESOTA (0-1) at (912) BALTIMORE (1-0)
Trend: BAL is 14-2 (+11.98 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against teams with a 47% or lower win pct in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-163 vs MIN) 

(913) LOS ANGELES-AL (2-0) at (914) HOUSTON (0-2)
Trend: LAA is 7-14 (-7.43 units) on the road in the -160 to +130 line range for starter Reid Detmers the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+123 at HOU) 

(915) CLEVELAND (1-1) at (916) SEATTLE (1-1)
Trend: SEA is 20-4 (+14.63 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-186 vs CLE)

(921) BOSTON (1-0) at (922) CINCINNATI (0-1)
Trend: Brady Singer is 21-7 (+14.16 units) in home day games in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+129 vs BOS) 

(925) KANSAS CITY (0-1) at (926) ATLANTA (1-0)
Trend: KC is 3-10 (-5.10 units) as a +125 or more road underdog with starter Michael Wacha since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+129 at ATL) 

(929) DETROIT (2-0) at (930) SAN DIEGO (0-2)
Trend: SD is 12-3 (+8.69 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-105 vs DET) 

Series #12: Pittsburgh at NY Mets, Thu 3/26-Sun 3/29
Trend: Favorites are 21-5 (80.8%, +12.38 units) in the last 26 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 47.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-175 vs PIT)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 7:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the ‘24 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): TEXAS, KANSAS CITY 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, TEXAS, BOSTON, MILWAUKEE, KANSAS CITY, NY YANKEES, DETROIT 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, HOUSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS, CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO, BALTIMORE, MIAMI, NY METS, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, it is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-CHC

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR