The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, September 20, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Carlos Rodon not good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 4-11 (-17.19 units) in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-204 at BAL) 

* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 359-180 (66.6%) for +48.19 units and an ROI of 8.9%!
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-116 vs CHC) 

* Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 74-63 (+15.56 units, ROI: 11.4%) in their last 137 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-101 at DET) 

* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 172-220 for -45.58 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-108 at TB), SAN DIEGO (-172 at CWS), CLEVELAND GAME 2 (-102 at MIN), ST LOUIS (+118 vs MIL) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 65-64 for -15.28 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -11.8% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-126 vs CLE), NY METS (-273 vs WSH)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 172-220 for -45.58 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.6%. Even though we’ve lost some steam on fading these teams lately, it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-108 at TB), SAN DIEGO (-172 at CWS), CLEVELAND GAME 2 (-102 at MIN), ST LOUIS (+118 vs MIL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 340-204 for +24.65 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +4.5%.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-110 at HOU)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 141-256 for -35.31 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -8.9%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+217 at NYM), COLORADO (+104 vs LAA) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 114-56 for -10.32 units (ROI of -6.1%). We have been hovering in the red for over a month now, like usual.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-273 vs WSH), LA DODGERS (-239 vs SF) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, having a season record of 435-464 for +47.91 units, ROI +5.3%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND GAME 1 (+104 at MIN), ATLANTA (-101 at DET), CHICAGO CUBS (-104 at CIN), BALTIMORE (+165 vs NYY), BOSTON (-108 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+119 vs TOR), CLEVELAND GAME 2 (-102 at MIN), SEATTLE (-110 at HOU), PHILADELPHIA (-103 at AZ) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so this year’s results are eye-opening, now 101-97, -0.54 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-116 vs CHC), MIAMI (+133 at TEX) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 185-251 for -24.19 units, an ROI of -5.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA GAME 1 (-126 vs CLE), DETROIT (-120 vs ATL), WASHINGTON (+217 at NYM), PITTSBURGH (-108 vs ATH), TORONTO (-144 at KC) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it has recovered from a slow start to post a current record of 239-185 for +14.64 units (ROI 3.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND GAME 1 (+104 at MIN), ATLANTA (-101 at DET), LA DODGERS (-239 vs SF) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): DETROIT, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, ATHLETICS, TEXAS, SAN DIEGO, LA ANGELS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the ’23 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-STL

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 429-408 (51.3%) for +25.09 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-120 vs ATL) 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1967-1854 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -247.47 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-101 at DET), NY METS (-273 vs WSH), BOSTON (-108 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+119 vs TOR)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1954-2488 (44%) for -238.75 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-204 at BAL), TORONTO (-144 at KC), MILWAUKEE (-143 at STL) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3966-3460 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -510.63 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-116 vs CHC), NY METS (-273 vs WSH), TAMPA BAY (-112 vs BOS), KANSAS CITY (+119 vs TOR), COLORADO (+113 vs LAA), ST LOUIS (+118 vs MIL), LA DODGERS (-238 vs SF) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 359-180 (66.6%) for +48.19 units and an ROI of 8.9%!
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-116 vs CHC) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, teams on losing skids of seven games or more have gone 18-21 (+10.01 units, ROI: 25.7%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 90-171 (-59.86 units, ROI: -22.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-132 at COL) 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 258-271 run (+13.85 units, ROI: 2.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-108 vs ATH), DETROIT (-121 vs ATL), TEXAS (-162 vs MIA) 

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 74-63 (+15.56 units, ROI: 11.4%) in their last 137 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-101 at DET)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 174-142 (+11.05 units, ROI: 3.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-101 at DET), CLEVELAND GAME 1 (+104 at MIN) 

Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 41-22 (+20.58 units, ROI: 32.7%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (*if they win game 1 today and fall into this line range for game 2) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -103 (+31 diff), KANSAS CITY +119 (+25), WASHINGTON +217 (+25), BALTIMORE +165 (+20), CHICAGO CUBS -104 (+19), CLEVELAND GAME 2 -102 (+17), CLEVELAND GAME 1 +104 (+15) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS -126 (+33 diff), DETROIT -120 (+27 diff), MILWAUKEE -143 (+21) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLE-MIN GAME 2 OVER 8 (+1.0), CLE-MIN GAME 1 OVER 7.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), NYY-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) WASHINGTON (62-92) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (80-74)
Trend: WSH is 29-38 (-17.30 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at NYM) 

(955) MILWAUKEE (94-60) at (956) ST LOUIS (75-79)
Trend: MIL is 46-30 (+13.75 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at STL) 

(957) PHILADELPHIA (92-62) at (958) ARIZONA (77-77)
Trend: PHI is 12-26 (-12.80 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-103 at AZ) 

(959) SAN FRANCISCO (76-78) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (87-67)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 40-14 (+7.34 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-239 vs SF) 

(961) CLEVELAND (82-71) at (962) MINNESOTA (66-87)  (DH Game #1)
Trend: MIN is 49-55 (-26.27 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA GAME 1 (-126 vs CLE) 

(963) NEW YORK-AL (86-68) at (964) BALTIMORE (73-81)
Trend: Carlos Rodon not good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 4-11 (-17.19 units) in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-204 at BAL) 

(965) BOSTON (84-70) at (966) TAMPA BAY (75-79)
Trend: Under the total is 27-14-3 (+11.60 units) when TB faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-TB (o/u at 8.5)

(967) CLEVELAND (82-71) at (968) MINNESOTA (66-87)  (DH Game #2)
Trend: CLE is 4-8 (-4.13 units) in the -120 to +125 line range with Logan Allen this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND GAME 2 (-102 at MIN)

Trend: MIN is 7-16 (-11.55 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last four seasons
Trend: MIN is 10-20 (-14.71 units) vs LH starters this season
Trends Match (FADE): MINNESOTA GAME 2 (-119 vs CLE)

(969) TORONTO (89-65) at (970) KANSAS CITY (77-77)
Trend: Under the total is 49-29-1 (+17.10 units) in Royals’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-KC (o/u at 8)

Trend: Shane Bieber is 18-4 (+12.10 units) in the last 22 games in the middle favorite (-140 to -155 line range)
Trend: Shane Bieber is just 7-6 (-6.85 units) in the last 13 games vs Kansas City
Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TORONTO (-144 at KC) 

(971) SEATTLE (85-69) at (972) HOUSTON (84-70)
Trend: SEA is 31-47 (-17.24 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at HOU) 

(977) MIAMI (74-80) at (978) TEXAS (79-75)
Trend: Under the total is 46-29-1 (+14.10 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-TEX (o/u at 9) 

(979) SAN DIEGO (83-71) at (980) CHICAGO-AL (58-96)
Trend: CWS is 85-59 (+13.99 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+1.5 vs SD) 

(981) LOS ANGELES-AL (69-85) at (982) COLORADO (42-112)
Trend: Over the total is 28-18-2 (+8.20 units) when LAA is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-COL (o/u at 11.5) 

Series #19: Cleveland at Minnesota, Fri 9/19-Sun 9/21
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 34-13 (72.3%, +23.07 units).
– The ROI on this trend is 49.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND GAME 1 (+104 at MIN)
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND GAME 2 (-102 at MIN) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Tuesday, September 23)

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