The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, September 27, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Over the total is 10-0 (+10.00 units) when SD is favored within -115 to -165 line range against NL teams with starter Michael King since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-SD (o/u at 7.5) 

* Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 395-264 for +83.05 units, an ROI of 12.6%!
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-101 at WSH)
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 22-4 (84.6%, +12.15 units) surge hosting Colorado.

– The ROI on this trend is 46.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-240 vs COL)

* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 130-132 (-55.11 units, ROI: -21%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-235 vs BAL) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 206-137 for +48.05 units, and an ROI of +14%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-101 at WSH) 

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 180-223 for -40.28 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10%. Even though we’ve lost some steam on fading these teams lately, it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+148 at ATL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 349-208 for +28.88 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-144 vs AZ), SEATTLE (-131 vs LAD)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 146-264 for -35.41 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -8.6%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-120 vs CWS), COLORADO (+192 at SF), MINNESOTA (+167 at PHI) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 117-60 for -17.54 units (ROI of -9.9%). We have been hovering in the red for over a month now, like usual.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-232 vs BAL), PHILADELPHIA (-207 vs MIN) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams have had a very strong season, 131-43 for +23 units, an ROI of +13.2%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-240 vs COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams finally went negative this past week, 81-39 for -4.42 units for the season. I indicated a couple of weeks ago that September is typically a month where we see more of these plays qualifying daily due to favorite overpricing. So far this month, these qualifiers are 4-7 for -10.50 units!
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-232 vs BAL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, having a season record of 454-479 for +55.27 units, ROI +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-101 at WSH), MIAMI (+108 vs NYM), PITTSBURGH (+148 at ATL) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, after a strangely strong 3-week surge, they are 209-204 for +14.54 units (ROI 3.5%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so this year’s results are eye-opening, now 105-99, +1.02 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI (+113 at MIL)
3-games – LA DODGERS (+107 at SEA) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 194-262 for -25.49 units, an ROI of -5.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+192 at SF), ARIZONA (+118 at SD) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it has recovered from a slow start to post a current record of 255-193 for +19.87 units (ROI 4.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-232 vs BAL), PHILADELPHIA (-207 vs MIN) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): WASHINGTON, BOSTON, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, KANSAS CITY 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up and down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY handle TEAMS THIS MONTH 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): STL-CHC, HOU-LAA

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game

Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1,975-1,860 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -247.33 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-181 vs STL), PITTSBURGH (+148 at ATL) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,968-2,502 (44%) for -238.43 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+148 at CHC), MINNESOTA (+168 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (+134 at TOR), NY METS (-132 at MIA) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3988-3475 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -510.02 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-235 vs BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (-181 vs STL), WASHINGTON (-123 vs CWS), MIAMI (+109 vs NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (-240 vs COL), SAN DIEGO (-144 vs AZ) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 362-181 (66.7%) for +48.99 units and an ROI of 9%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-181 vs STL), WASHINGTON (-123 vs CWS)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 130-132 (-55.11 units, ROI: -21%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-235 vs BAL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS +119 (+31 diff), BALTIMORE +187 (+24), COLORADO +192 (+17) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO -144 (+32 diff), BOSTON -132 (+28), TORONTO -158 (+17) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-SEA OVER 7 (+1.0), TEX-CLE OVER 7 (+0.7), CWS-WSH OVER 8.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-CHC UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), TB-TOR UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) ST LOUIS (78-82) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (90-70)
Trend: STL is 27-37 (-17.79 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at CHC) 

(903) COLORADO (43-117) at (904) SAN FRANCISCO (79-81)
Trend: COL is 11-29 (-10.76 units) in the last 40 games on the road with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+192 at SF)

Trend: Under the total is 45-32-2 (+9.90 units) in Rockies’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-SF (o/u at 8)

Trend: SF is 16-28 (-18.84 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-240 vs COL)

(905) NEW YORK-NL (82-78) at (906) MIAMI (78-82)
Trend: MIA is 73-39 (+22.55 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 vs NYM)

(907) CINCINNATI (82-78) at (908) MILWAUKEE (96-64)
Trend: CIN is 7-4 (+4.22 units) in the last 11 games on the road in Divisional matchups with starter Andrew Abbott
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+113 at MIL)

Trend: MIL is 58-34 (+20.63 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-137 vs CIN)

(909) PITTSBURGH (70-90) at (910) ATLANTA (75-85)
Trend: PIT is 26-53 (-21.73 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+148 at ATL) 

(911) ARIZONA (80-80) at (912) SAN DIEGO (88-72)
Trend: Over the total is 10-0 (+10.00 units) when SD is favored within -115 to -165 line range against NL teams with starter Michael King since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-SD (o/u at 7.5) 

(915) TAMPA BAY (77-83) at (916) TORONTO (92-68)
Trend: TB is 35-20 (+6.66 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 at TOR) 

(919) TEXAS (81-79) at (920) CLEVELAND (86-74)
Trend: CLE is 61-42 (+15.27 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-1.5 vs TEX) 

(921) HOUSTON (85-75) at (922) LOS ANGELES-AL (72-88)
Trend: Over the total is 44-32-3 (+8.80 units) in Angels’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-LAA (o/u at 9) 

(925) CHICAGO-AL (59-101) at (926) WASHINGTON (65-95)
Trend: CWS is 89-62 (+14.88 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-1.5 at WSH)

(927) MINNESOTA (69-91) at (928) PHILADELPHIA (95-65)
Trend: MIN is 12-22 (-14.43 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+176 at PHI)

(929) LOS ANGELES-NL (91-69) at (930) SEATTLE (90-70)
Trend: LAD is 37-40 (-22.90 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (+107 at SEA)

Series #10: Detroit at Boston, Fri 9/26-Sun 9/28
Trend: DETROIT is 7-14 (33.3%, -5.99 units) in the last 21 games vs. Boston
– The ROI on this trend is -28.5%
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+110 at BOS) 

Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 9/26-Sun 9/28
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 22-4 (84.6%, +12.15 units) surge hosting Colorado.
– The ROI on this trend is 46.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-240 vs COL) 

Series #27: Cincinnati at Milwaukee, Fri 9/26-Sun 9/28
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 31-12 (72.1%, +17.25 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 40.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-137 vs CIN)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
 
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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