The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, April 12, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 354-388 but for +96.50 units and an ROI of 13% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+119 at TOR), ATHLETICS (+141 at NYM), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+149 at KC), PITTSBURGH (+113 at CHC), HOUSTON (+139 at SEA) 

* Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 160-84 SU (+43.13 units) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-149 at TB) 

* When two teams with >=0.55% win pct meet in a night game to close out a series, Under the total is 64-48-6 (57.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-ATL (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For ’26, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 29-17 start for +3.47 units and an ROI of +7.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-126 at STL), SEATTLE (-168 vs HOU), ATLANTA (-194 vs CLE) 

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 30-17 start for +3.99 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-149 at TB), CINCINNATI (-108 vs LAA), DETROIT (-181 vs MIA), MILWAUKEE (-240 vs WSH), SEATTLE (-168 vs HOU), SAN DIEGO (-240 vs COL), TEXAS (+109 at LAD), ATLANTA (-194 vs CLE)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 14-20 start for +2.49 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+149 at KC), ST LOUIS (+104 vs BOS) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 9-1 for +6.57 units as big favorites are off to an unusually strong start overall. I would expect this to cool.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-240 vs WSH), ATLANTA (-194 vs CLE) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 13-9 but for -9.55 units so far.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-240 vs COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a 27-30 start for +0.53 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-108 vs LAA), MIAMI (+149 at DET), PITTSBURGH (+113 at CHC) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to an unusually strong 16-13 start for +5.97 units and an ROI of +20.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+123 vs NYY), DETROIT (-181 vs MIA), WASHINGTON (+194 at MIL) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice FADE system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in ’26, but it is off to a strangely fast start, 15-9 for +9.45 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+139 at SEA), COLORADO (+194 at SD) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 9-12 for -8.29 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-149 at TB), MILWAUKEE (-240 vs WSH) 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 411-426 but for +41.15 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON, COLORADO

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 354-388 but for +96.50 units and an ROI of 13% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+119 at TOR), ATHLETICS (+141 at NYM), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+149 at KC), PITTSBURGH (+113 at CHC), HOUSTON (+139 at SEA) 

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 157-63 for +15.14 units and an ROI of 6.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-181 vs CWS), SAN DIEGO (-240 vs COL) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 632-735 record but for +22.34 units and an ROI of 1.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, MIAMI, LA ANGELS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, NY YANKEES, SAN FRANCISCO, TEXAS 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2003-1891 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -256.44 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+141 at NYM), SAN DIEGO (-232 vs COL) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,007-2,557 (43.9%) for -251.14 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, SAN FRANCISCO 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4053-3521 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -507.13 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, CINCINNATI, NY METS, TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 602-498 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +30.02 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-136 vs PIT) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 330-299 (52.5%) for +16.40 units and an ROI of 2.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-168 vs HOU) 

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 83-125 SU (-21.38 units) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+113 at CHC), TAMPA BAY (+123 vs NYY) 

Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 160-84 SU (+43.13 units) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-149 at TB) 

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 67-40 SU for +12.39 units (ROI: 11.6%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-126 at STL) 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #2:
When two teams with >=0.55% win pct meet in a night game to close out a series, Under the total is 64-48-6 (57.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-ATL (o/u at 7.5) 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 214-245 SU but for +45.91 units (ROI: 10%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR PITTSBURGH at CHC (+113 CURRENTLY) 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 454-516 SU but for +68.49 units (ROI: 7.1%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 158-168 SU for +39.11 units in the last 326 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+129 at PHI), MIAMI (+149 at DET), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+153 at KC), SAN FRANCISCO (+109 at BAL), TEXAS (+109 at LAD), HOUSTON (+139 at SEA) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 271-287 run (+8.24 units, ROI: 1.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-226 vs WSH), NY YANKEES (-149 at TB) 

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 34-70 (-9.26 units, ROI: -8.9%) in their last 104 tries.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+141 at NYM) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +194 (+35 diff), CINCINNATI -105 (+29), TAMPA BAY +123 (+21), COLORADO +194 (+18) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -136 (+25), LA DODGERS -131 (+17) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-TOR OVER 7.5 (+0.8), ATH-NYM OVER 7 (+0.8), HOU-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-KC UNDER 9 (-0.8), PIT-CHC UNDER 12.5 (-0.5), MIA-DET UNDER 6.5 (-0.5), BOS-STL UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(957) COLORADO (6-9) at (958) SAN DIEGO (9-6)
Trend: COL is 12-31 (-10.52 units) in the last 43 games on the road with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+194 at SD)

Trend: Nick Pivetta’s teams are 11-1 SU in the last 12 as a home favorite of -195 or higher
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-240 vs COL) 

(959) MINNESOTA (8-7) at (960) TORONTO (6-8)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 26-8 (+14.12 units) in the last 34 day games starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-143 vs MIN)

(967) SAN FRANCISCO (6-9) at (968) BALTIMORE (7-7)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 25-12 (+14.12 units) in the last 37 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+109 at BAL) 

(971) ATHLETICS (7-7) at (972) NEW YORK-NL (7-8)
Trend: Freddy Peralta was on a 14-1 (+12.74 units) run in his last 15 starts as a favorite vs AL teams with the Brewers
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-171 vs ATH) 

Series #9: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City, Thu 4/9-Sun 4/12
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 25-5 (83.3%, +18.03 units) versus the Chicago White Sox.
– The ROI on this trend is 60.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-186 vs CWS)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): CINCINNATI, HOUSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, NY METS, CINCINNATI, DETROIT, BOSTON, LA DODGERS, ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
–  Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, NY METS, CINCINNATI, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS, SAN DIEGO, ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CWS-KC, PIT-CHC

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, April 13)

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