Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, April 5, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 370-182 (67%) for +54.93 units and an ROI of 10%!
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-143 vs STL)
* Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 139-138 (-53.78 units, ROI: -19.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-308 vs MIA)
Trend: Under the total is 11-2-1 (+8.95 units), going under the listed total by 1.96 runs on average, when Luis Castillo faces teams with a <= 45% win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-LAA (o/u at 9)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 25-11 (+7.80 units).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-175 at LAA)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. For the ’26 season, these teams have a record of 4-5 (-1.58 units).
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+244 at NYY)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks of 2025. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 17-11 (+2.41 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-156 vs SD), NY YANKEES (-308 vs MIA)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 6-13 (-5.62 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+144 vs LAD), COLORADO (+144 vs PHI)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 10-5 (-2.92 units).
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-308 vs MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 11-17 (-4.22 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND GAME 1 (+113 vs CHC), SAN DIEGO (+129 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (-108 at MIN), MILWAUKEE (+100 at KC), NY METS (-102 at SF), CLEVELAND GAME 2 (+103 vs CHC)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026. For the 2026 season, these teams have started unusually fast with a record of 8-2 (+8.38 units).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+144 vs LAD)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Although it lost -5.28 units in 2025, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 3-3 (-0.99 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-171 at CWS), TEXAS (-126 vs CIN)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 410-421 but for +46.09 units and an ROI of 5.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+144 vs LAD), TEXAS (-126 vs CIN)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 669-876 but for +29.60 units and an ROI of 1.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+129 at BOS), BALTIMORE (+109 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (+102 at KC), CINCINNATI (+104 at TEX), ST LOUIS (+119 at DET)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 630-725 record but for +32.99 units and an ROI of 2.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-168 at CWS), BALTIMORE (+109 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (+102 at KC), ATLANTA (-112 at AZ), SEATTLE (-175 at LAA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 432-415 (51%) for +20.37 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+104 vs HOU), SAN FRANCISCO (-118 vs NYM)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1997-1880 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -247.78 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, LA DODGERS, HOUSTON, NY YANKEES, NY METS
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,991-2,540 (43.9%) for -249.06 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS GAME 1, BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA, SEATTLE
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4033-3503 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -505.05 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, WASHINGTON, KANSAS CITY, NY YANKEES
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 596-489 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +36.33 units, for an ROI of 3.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, ATHLETICS, TEXAS, ARIZONA, COLORADO, SAN FRANCISCO
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 370-182 (67%) for +54.93 units and an ROI of 10%!
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-143 vs STL)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 81-124 SU (-22.86 units) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+129 at BOS)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 179-210 SU record for +40.94 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+144 vs LAD), ATHLETICS (+104 vs HOU)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 211-245 SU but for +42.00 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+144 vs PHI)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 445-505 SU but for +68.75 units since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+109 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (+102 at KC), ST LOUIS (+119 at DET)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting on teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 139-138 (-53.78 units, ROI: -19.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-308 vs MIA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +244 (+50 diff), ATHLETICS +104 (+30), COLORADO +144 (+18), CLEVELAND GAME 1 +113 (+18), CLEVELAND GAME 2 +103 (+17), LA ANGELS +144 (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ATLANTA -112 (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIL-KC OVER 7.5 (+1.0), CIN-TEX OVER 7.5 (+0.8), NYM-SF OVER 7 (+0.7), CHC-CLE GAME 1 OVER 7.5 (+0.7), CHC-CLE GAME 2 OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-BOS UNDER 9 (-0.8), ATL-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(909) TAMPA BAY (3-5) at (910) MINNESOTA (3-5)
Trend: MIN is 18-9 (+7.64 units) against teams with a <= 0.500 win pct with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-112 vs TB)
(915) SEATTLE (4-5) at (916) LOS ANGELES-AL (4-5)
Trend: Under the total is 11-2-1 (+8.95 units), going under the listed total by 1.96 runs on average, when Luis Castillo faces teams with a <= 45% win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-LAA (o/u at 9)
(917) MIAMI (5-3) at (918) NEW YORK-AL (7-1)
Trend: Chris Paddack’s teams are 3-10 (-6.17 units) as a +105 or more road underdog since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: Max Fried’s teams are 53-39 in the last 6+ seasons when he is starting against teams with a winning record
Trends Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-308 vs MIA)
(919) SAN DIEGO (3-5) at (920) BOSTON (2-6)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 19-10 vs AL teams (+6.81 units) since 2019
Trend: Walker Buehler has dominated lesser competition, going 22-6 (+9.24 units) against teams with a < 40% win pct since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+129 at BOS)
(927) CINCINNATI (5-3) at (928) TEXAS (4-4)
Trend: TEX is 8-14 (-5.76 units) when facing teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-126 vs CIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS GAME 1, BOSTON, NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY, TEXAS, DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS GAME 2
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, KANSAS CITY, TEXAS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, NY YANKEES, KANSAS CITY, TEXAS, DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-LAA
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
