The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, August 10, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 331-355 but for +98.75 units and a ROI of 14.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+167 at NYY), ATHLETICS (+108 at BAL), LA ANGELS (+152 at DET), TORONTO (+152 at LAD) 

Trend: Adrian Houser is 17-5 (+14.23 units) in his last 22 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+157 at SEA)

Trend: Home teams in the Kansas City-Minnesota AL Central rivalry are on a 35-12 (74.5%, +22.80 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 48.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-115 vs KC) 

Trend: WSH is 15-34 (-17.90 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+127 at SF)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 50-44 for -4.42 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -4.7% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): NY YANKEES (-207 vs HOU)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 125-170 for -48.29 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -16.4%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+167 at NYY), MIAMI (+109 at ATL), LA ANGELS (+152 at DET), TEXAS (+129 vs PHI)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 274-149 for +37.70 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +8.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-157 at TEX), SEATTLE (-192 vs TB), LA DODGERS (-187 vs TOR)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 110-206 for -34.54 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.9%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-115 vs KC), ATHLETICS (+102 at BAL), COLORADO (+212 at AZ)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 108-33 for +24.67 units, an ROI of 17.5%.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-267 vs COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. That is happening big time, as we are rolling lately and the season record stands at 324-330 for +43.76 units, ROI +6.7%. This comes after a breakout 66-61, +23.38-unit surge since the ASB!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-106 at MIN), HOUSTON (+167 at NYY), MIAMI (+109 at ATL), PITTSBURGH (-106 vs CIN), LA ANGELS (+152 at DET), TEXAS (+129 vs PHI), TAMPA BAY (+157 at SEA) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 149-160 for -7.28 units (ROI -2.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 75-45 for -2.33 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – ATLANTA (-132 vs MIA), PHILADELPHIA (-157 at TEX)
3+ games – SEATTLE (-192 vs TB) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. After a huge four-and-a-half week run of +19.10 units, it is now 182-134 for +18.67 units (ROI 5.9%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-132 at CWS), MILWAUKEE (-119 vs NYM)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): ATLANTA, BALTIMORE, BOSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): KC-MIN, CLE-CWS 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 373-384 but for +44.56 units and an ROI of 5.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 vs CLE), NY METS (-102 at MIL), COLORADO (+212 at AZ) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 628-803 but for +48.13 units and an ROI of 3.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+111 at ATL), HOUSTON (+167 at NYY), ATHLETICS (+108 at BAL), LA ANGELS (+152 at DET), WASHINGTON (+127 at SF), TAMPA BAY (+157 at SEA), BOSTON (+118 at SD), TORONTO (+152 at LAD) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 331-355 but for +98.75 units and an ROI of 14.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+167 at NYY), ATHLETICS (+108 at BAL), LA ANGELS (+152 at DET), TORONTO (+152 at LAD) 

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 140-55 for +15.41 units and an ROI of 7.9% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-267 vs COL) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 591-662 record, but for +51.98 units and an ROI of 4.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+167 at NYY), NY METS (-102 at MIL), BOSTON (+118 at SD), TORONTO (+152 at LAD), TAMPA BAY (+157 at SEA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1,891-1,792 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -249.07 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+108 at BAL), LA DODGERS (-187 vs TOR), CHICAGO CUBS (-126 at STL) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1890-2393 (44.1%) for -206.78 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-112 at PIT), KANSAS CITY (-106 at MIN), TORONTO (+152 at LAD) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3827-3352 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -513.47 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-207 vs HOU), MILWAUKEE (-119 vs NYM), ATLANTA (-136 vs MIA), ARIZONA (-267 vs COL), SAN DIEGO (-144 vs BOS), LA DODGERS (-187 vs TOR), SEATTLE (-194 vs TB)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 564-472 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +25.57 units, for an ROI of 2.5%.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-115 vs KC) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 244-251 run (+17.99 units, ROI: 3.6%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-102 at MIL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 166-131 (+14.12 units, ROI: 4.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-132 at CWS)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 225-147 in their last 372 tries (+36.00 units, ROI: 9.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-119 vs NYM), SEATTLE (-194 vs TB)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 116-125 (-57.63 units, ROI: -23.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-119 vs NYM) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TAMPA BAY +157 (+26 diff), COLORADO +212 (+25), MIAMI +109 (+23), LA ANGELS +152 (+16) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -157 (+31 diff), CLEVELAND -132 (+20), MILWAUKEE -119 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PHI-TEX OVER 7.5 (+0.9)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-NYY UNDER 9 (-0.7), ATH-BAL UNDER 9.5 (-0.6) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) CINCINNATI (61-57) at (902) PITTSBURGH (51-67)
Trend: Under the total is 51-27-4 (+21.30 units) when CIN faces RH starters this season
Trend: Under the total is 54-35-4 (+15.50 units) when PIT faces RH starters this season
Trend: Under the total is 15-5 (+9.35 units) when Zach Littell faces teams with a <= 0.500 win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-PIT (o/u at 8) 

(903) MIAMI (57-60) at (904) ATLANTA (50-67)
Trend: MIA is 29-22 (+14.08 units) in day games this season
Trend: ATL is 13-25 (-24.35 units) in day games this season
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-136 at ATL) 

(905) NEW YORK-NL (63-54) at (906) MILWAUKEE (72-44)
Trend: MIL is 38-20 (+11.85 units) at home this season
Trend: MIL is 23-11 (+13.74 units) vs LH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-119 vs NYM) 

(907) CHICAGO-NL (67-49) at (908) ST LOUIS (59-59)
Trend: CHC is 17-3 (+12.23 units) as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: CHC is 26-6 (+16.98 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the  2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-125 at STL) 

(909) WASHINGTON (46-70) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (59-58)
Trend: WSH is 15-34 (-17.90 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+127 at SF)

Trend: Under the total is 49-30-2 (+16.00 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-SF (o/u at 8)

(911) COLORADO (30-86) at (912) ARIZONA (56-61)
Trend: AZ is 17-10 (+5.08 units) in day games with start by Brandon Pfaadt since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-267 vs COL) 

(919) LOS ANGELES-AL (56-61) at (920) DETROIT (67-51)
Trend: DET is 14-6 (+7.94 units) in day game starts with Casey Mize since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-187 vs LAA) 

(923) TAMPA BAY (57-61) at (924) SEATTLE (65-53)
Trend: Over the total is 53-31-4 (+18.90 units) when SEA faces RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-SEA (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: Adrian Houser is 17-5 (+14.23 units) in his last 22 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+157 at SEA)

Trend: SEA is 15-4 (+9.63 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-194 vs TB) 

(925) PHILADELPHIA (67-49) at (926) TEXAS (60-58)
Trend: UNDER the total is 34-20-4 (+12.00 units) in Phillies’ road games this season
Trend: UNDER the total is 38-20-1 (+16.00 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-TEX (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: PHI is 25-12 (+6.50 units) in the last 37 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-157 at TEX) 

(929) TORONTO (68-50) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (68-49)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 39-12 (+10.48 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-187 vs TOR)

Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Thu 8/7-Sun 8/10
Trend: CINCINNATI is 6-17 (26.1%, -12.30 units) in the last 23 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -53.5%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-112 at PIT) 

Series #16: Kansas City at Minnesota, Fri 8/8-Sun 8/10
Trend: Home teams in the Kansas City-Minnesota AL Central rivalry are on a 35-12 (74.5%, +22.80 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 48.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-115 vs KC) 

Series #21: Houston at NY Yankees, Fri 8/8-Sun 8/10
Trend: The YANKEES are on a 10-2 (83.3%, +9.89 units) run versus Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is 82.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-207 vs HOU)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (nex: tomorrow, August 11)

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