Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, August 3, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: TEX is 11-1 (+8.78 units) in the last 12 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-145 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 326-354 but for +92.71 units and a ROI of 13.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+151 at PHI)
Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 337-218 for +79.76 units, a ROI of 14.4%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+122 at TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 at LAA), ATHLETICS (-111 vs AZ)
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 33-12 (73.3%, +23.78 units) in the last 45 meetings
– The ROI on this trend is 52.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-172 vs MIN)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 148-91 for +44.76 units, and an ROI of 18.7%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+122 at TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 at LAA), ATHLETICS (-111 vs AZ)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 44-43 for -9.55 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -11% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-186 vs DET)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 122-156 for -36.60 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.2%. fade these qualifiers almost anytime they come up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-168 vs SF), CLEVELAND (-172 vs MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 at LAA), SEATTLE (+118 vs TEX), TAMPA BAY (+135 vs LAD), BALTIMORE (+152 at CHC)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 261-136 for +42.25 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +10.6%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-171 at WSH), HOUSTON (-131 at BOS), TEXAS (-145 at SEA), LA DODGERS (-165 at TB)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 106-197 for -31.36 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.3%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+140 vs MIL), COLORADO (+127 vs PIT), MINNESOTA (+140 at CLE), DETROIT (+151 at PHI)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. That is happening big time, as we are well in the black with a season record of 309-310 for +45.24 units, ROI +7.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (+107 vs HOU), KANSAS CITY (+122 at TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 at LAA), DETROIT (+151 at PHI), MIAMI (-105 vs NYY)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 145-151 for -2.01 units (ROI -0.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 73-72, -1.49 units.
System Match (FADE): 2-games – COLORADO (+127 vs PIT)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 171-128 for +15.85 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+107 vs HOU), CLEVELAND (-172 vs MIN), MIAMI (-105 vs NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 at LAA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-168 vs SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): HOUSTON, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS, ATHLETICS, PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS, PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-COL
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 369-380 but for +44.49 units and an ROI of 5.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+142 vs MIL), MINNESOTA (+140 at CLE), LA ANGELS (-132 vs CWS)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 618-798 but for +39.45 units and a ROI of 2.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+122 at TOR), SAN FRANCISCO (+138 at NYM), MINNESOTA (+140 at CLE), BALTIMORE (+152 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 at LAA), ST LOUIS (+152 at SD), DETROIT (+151 at PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 326-354 but for +92.71 units and an ROI of 13.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+151 at PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 584-660 record but for +46.19 units and an ROI of 3.7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-181 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+122 at TOR), HOUSTON (-131 at BOS), MINNESOTA (+140 at CLE), NY YANKEES (-116 at MIA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1882-1785 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -248.61 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-168 vs SF)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1875-2380 (44.1%) for -209.74 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-181 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+122 at TOR), NY YANKEES (-116 at MIA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 at LAA)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3805-3331 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -508.35 units and a ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+127 vs PIT), BOSTON (+107 vs HOU), CLEVELAND (-172 vs MIN), NY METS (-168 vs SF), SAN DIEGO (-187 vs STL), PHILADELPHIA (-186 vs DET)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 561-471 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +24.07 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-148 vs KC), LA ANGELS (-132 vs CWS)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON +107 (+20), ST LOUIS +152 (+19), KANSAS CITY +122 (+18), MINNESOTA +140 (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -171 (+28 diff), PITTSBURGH -156 (+26), LA DODGERS -165 (+18), LA ANGELS -132 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIL-WSH OVER 8.5 (+0.5), LAD-TB OVER 8.5 (+0.5), DET-PHI OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: STL-SD UNDER 8 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) MILWAUKEE (66-44) at (952) WASHINGTON (44-66)
Trend: Over the total is 46-32-3 (+10.80 units) when WSH faces RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-WSH (o/u at 8.5)
(953) SAN FRANCISCO (55-56) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (63-48)
Trend: Over the total is 20-11-2 (+7.90 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-NYM (o/u at 8.5)
(955) PITTSBURGH (47-64) at (956) COLORADO (30-80)
Trend: Under the total is 29-16-1 (+11.40 units) in Rockies’ day games this season
Trend: Under the total is 28-17-1 (+9.30 units) in Pirates’ day games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-COL (o/u at 11)
(961) KANSAS CITY (55-56) at (962) TORONTO (65-47)
Trend: Seth Lugo is 8-17 (-10.28 units) on the road against teams with a winning record since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+122 at TOR)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 26-12 (+9.06 units) in DAY games vs teams with a losing record in the last six seasons
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 19-8 (+6.46 units) vs AL Central opponents in the last six seasons
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 11-5 (+5.60 units) in July/Aug/Sept DAY games in the last three seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-148 vs KC)
(963) MINNESOTA (51-59) at (964) CLEVELAND (56-54)
Trend: MIN is 21-33 (-20.56 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+140 at CLE)
(967) TEXAS (58-54) at (968) SEATTLE (59-53)
Trend: TEX is 11-1 (+8.78 units) in the last 12 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-145 at SEA)
(969) LOS ANGELES-NL (64-47) at (970) TAMPA BAY (55-57)
Trend: TB is 24-37 (-15.13 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 vs LAD)
(971) DETROIT (65-47) at (972) PHILADELPHIA (62-48)
Trend: Charlie Morton is 4-13 (-8.65 units) within -130 to +175 line range in night games since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+151 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 21-5 (+11.53 units) in favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-186 vs DET)
(973) NEW YORK-AL (60-51) at (974) MIAMI (54-55)
Trend: MIA is 16-14 (+4.34 units) as a shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last four seasons
Trend: MIA is 54-28 (+19.00 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-105 vs NYY)
(975) BALTIMORE (51-60) at (976) CHICAGO-NL (64-46)
Trend: Under the total is 28-14-3 (+12.60 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-CHC (o/u at 8)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #6: Minnesota at Cleveland, Fri 8/1-Sun 8/3
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 33-12 (73.3%, +23.78 units) in the last 45 meetings
– The ROI on this trend is 52.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-172 vs MIN)
Series #14: St Louis at San Diego, Fri 8/1-Sun 8/3
Trend: Home teams are 19-9 (67.9%, +7.58 units) in the last 28 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 27.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-187 vs STL)
