Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, August 31, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 340-369 but for +96.32 units and an ROI of 13.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+127 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (+103 at MIN), PITTSBURGH (+148 at BOS), ARIZONA (+182 at LAD)
* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 352-177 (66.5%) for +47.08 units and an ROI of 8.9%!
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-180 vs MIA)
Trend: KC is 9-2 (+7.33 units) in home divisional games with starter Michael Wacha since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+143 vs DET)
* Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 230-149 in their last 379 tries (+38.19 units, ROI: 10.1%).
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-188 at CWS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 55-52 for -10.92 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -10.2% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): MINNESOTA (-125 vs SD)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 147-198 for -48.69 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.1%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become as reliable as almost anything else in this report. This angle is 44-66 for -18.16 units since the All-Star Break
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+127 at CIN), CLEVELAND (-110 vs SEA)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 304-181 for +19.63 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-246 at COL), LA DODGERS (-226 vs AZ), HOUSTON (-172 vs LAA), DETROIT (-175 at KC), MILWAUKEE (-108 at TOR)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 123-231 for -35.75 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.1%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+197 vs CHC), WASHINGTON (+122 vs TB)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 100-48 for -7.73 units. We have been hovering the red for about three weeks now, like usual.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-226 vs AZ)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a strong start, 119-38 for +22.10 units, an ROI of +14.1%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-246 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. This season’s record stands at 381-402 for +43.87 units, ROI +5.6%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+127 at CIN), MIAMI (+146 at NYM), CLEVELAND (-110 vs SEA), KANSAS CITY (+143 vs DET), ATHLETICS (+119 vs TEX), SAN DIEGO (+103 at MIN), MILWAUKEE (-108 at TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 172-181 for -2.62 units (ROI -0.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 83-83, -5.29 units for the year.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – TEXAS (-144 at ATH), ARIZONA (+182 at LAD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 158-217 for -23.03 units, an ROI of -6.1%. After a couple of rough weeks, this is now back at “average performing level” so we will continue to monitor it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-156 vs STL), WASHINGTON (+122 vs TB), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+153 vs NYY), COLORADO (+197 vs CHC), ATLANTA (+138 at PHI)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 209-161 for +9.61 units (ROI 2.6%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+127 at CIN), CLEVELAND (-110 vs SEA), NY YANKEES (-188 at CWS), PHILADELPHIA (-168 vs ATL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in ALL 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, BOSTON, TAMPA BAY, MILWAUKEE, SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYY-CWS, TEX-ATH, ATL-PHI
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 383-398 but for +40.68 units and an ROI of 5.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-155 vs STL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+153 vs NYY), WASHINGTON (+122 vs TB), COLORADO (+197 vs CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 643-829 but for +41.37 units and an ROI of 2.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+127 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (+103 at MIN), PITTSBURGH (+148 at BOS), MIAMI (+146 at NYM), BALTIMORE (+118 at SF), ARIZONA (+182 at LAD), ATLANTA (+138 at PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 340-369 but for +96.32 units and an ROI of 13.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+127 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (+103 at MIN), PITTSBURGH (+148 at BOS), ARIZONA (+182 at LAD)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 146-56 for +19.54 units and an ROI of 9.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-180 vs MIA), LA DODGERS (-226 vs AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 604-685 record but for +42.36 units and an ROI of 3.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-111 at CLE), DETROIT (-180 at KC), ATLANTA (+138 at PHI)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 418-402 (51%) for +21.93 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-181 vs PIT), MINNESOTA (-125 vs SD), SAN FRANCISCO (-143 vs BAL)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1928-1827 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -256.16 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+148 at BOS), SAN DIEGO (+103 at MIN), TEXAS (-149 at ATH), MIAMI (+146 at NYM), BALTIMORE (+118 at SF)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,924-2,437 (44.1%) for -215.10 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-180 at KC), ATLANTA (+138 at PHI)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3903-3409 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -512.12 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-180 vs MIA)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 352-177 (66.5%) for +47.08 units and an ROI of 8.9%!
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-180 vs MIA)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 320-283 (53.1%) for +24.01 units and an ROI of 4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+122 vs TEX)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 69-139 skid (-37.88 units, ROI: -18.2%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+122 vs TB)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-21 (+10.01 units, ROI: 25.7%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 87-168 (-58.91 units, ROI: -23.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+122 vs TB)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 250-257 run (+18.47 units, ROI: 3.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-155 vs STL), COLORADO (+197 vs CHC)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 230-149 in their last 379 tries (+38.19 units, ROI: 10.1%).
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-188 at CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 31-63 (-7.52 units, ROI: -8%) in their last 94 tries.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+182 at LAD)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 126-128 (-52.42 units, ROI: -20.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-188 at CWS),
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ARIZONA +182 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY YANKEES -188 (+23 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -246 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-CIN OVER 8 (+0.8), MIL-TOR OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: AZ-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.9), TEX-ATH UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), SD-MIN UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) ST LOUIS (68-69) at (952) CINCINNATI (68-68)
Trend: Brady Singer is 20-7 (+13.16 units) in his last 27 home day games
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-156 vs STL)
(955) MIAMI (64-72) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (73-63)
Trend: MIA is most profitable team in MLB as ML underdog this season (47-50 record, +18.45 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+146 at NYM)
(959) ARIZONA (68-69) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (77-59)
Trend: AZ is 19-10 (+7.08 units) in day games with Brandon Pfaadt since start of ’23 season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+182 at LAD)
(961) SEATTLE (72-64) at (962) CLEVELAND (68-66)
Trend: SEA is 9-2 (+6.77 units) vs AL Central teams with Bryce Miller since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-111 at CLE)
(965) DETROIT (79-58) at (966) KANSAS CITY (70-66)
Trend: Under the total is 41-25-1 (+13.50 units) in Royals’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-KC (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: KC is 9-2 (+7.33 units) in home divisional games with starter Michael Wacha since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+143 vs DET)
(969) TEXAS (70-67) at (970) ATHLETICS (63-74)
Trend: TEX is 11-2 (+6.80 units) in the last 13 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-144 at ATH)
(975) PITTSBURGH (61-76) at (976) BOSTON (75-62)
Trend: Under the total is 38-26-3 (+9.40 units) in Pirates’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-BOS (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Lucas Giolito is 14-19 in his last 33 starts against the NL (-7.05 units)
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-181 vs PIT)
(977) MILWAUKEE (85-52) at (978) TORONTO (78-58)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 24-7 (+13.12 units) in the last 31 day games starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-113 vs MIL)
(979) BALTIMORE (61-75) at (980) SAN FRANCISCO (67-69)
Trend: Under the total is 40-24-3 (+13.60 units) in Orioles’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-SF (o/u at 8.5)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, September 1)
