The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, July 20, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: NYM is 17-0 (+17.00 units) as a -130 favorite or higher with starter David Peterson since start of ’24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-156 vs CIN)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 571-644 record but for +49.79 units and a ROI of 4.1% over the L3 seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-110 at TOR), KANSAS CITY (-123 at MIA), SAN DIEGO (-126 at WSH), BALTIMORE (+104 at TB), BOSTON (-142 at CHC), ST LOUIS (+122 at AZ), DETROIT (-218 at TEX)

Trend: MIN is 21-4 (+14.53 units) vs teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-243 at COL)

* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 114-123 (-57.28 units, ROI: -24.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+117 vs BOS)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 129-81 for +36.17 units, and a ROI of 17.2%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+128 at NYM), BALTIMORE (+104 at TB), ATLANTA (-132 vs NYY)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 39-37 for -7.78 units when not matched up against similar. This represents a ROI of -10.2% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+104 vs SD), NY METS (-156 vs CIN)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 107-137 for -33.62 units when not matched up against the same. This represents a ROI of -13.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+122 at AZ), CHICAGO CUBS (+117 vs BOS)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 237-121 for +43.49 units, when not matched against the same. This represents a ROI of +12.1%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-126 at WSH), BOSTON (-142 at CHC), MINNESOTA (-243 at COL), HOUSTON (+118 at SEA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 94-189 for -42.35 units when not matched up against the same. This represents a ROI of -15%! This is the double whammy scenario to FADE.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (+108 at ATL), COLORADO (+195 vs MIN)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 101-31 for +22.55 units, a ROI of 17.1%.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-243 at COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 68-25 for +11.22 units. After a 4-0 week, we are further away from going into the usual negative territory. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season.
System Match (FADE): NO PLAYS TODAY.

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 265-276 for +22.61 units, ROI +4.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+104 at TB), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+112 at PIT), MIAMI (+104 vs KC), CHICAGO CUBS (+117 vs BOS), CINCINNATI (+128 at NYM), HOUSTON (+118 at SEA), MILWAUKEE (+133 at LAD), ST LOUIS (+122 at AZ), TEXAS (+167 vs DET) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 129-135 for -4.05 units (ROI -1.5%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 67-63, +1.62 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TAMPA BAY (-126 vs BAL), COLORADO (+195 vs MIN)
3+ games – SEATTLE (-144 vs HOU), ARIZONA (-148 vs STL)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. After a huge week-and-a-half of 23-10 for +12.81 units, it is now 148-108 for +12.38 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+104 vs KC), CHICAGO CUBS (+117 vs BOS), CINCINNATI (+128 at NYM), TEXAS (+167 vs DET)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): TORONTO, NY YANKEES, KANSAS CITY, BOSTON, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as Majority HANDLE bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy ROAD FAVORITES of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 UNITS and a ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in ’25, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in ALL 38 possible games this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, MINNESOTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their best overall in divisional games since the start of 2024, going 670-692 (49.2%) for -27.82 units and an ROI of -2.0%. This is about five full percentage points better for return. If you’re looking for a spot where these majorities are even better, try getting behind them when they back the underdogs in these divisional contests. In those games, these have gone 95-106 (47.3%) for -0.62 units and an ROI of -0.3%. This advantage is even greater and an indication that bettors do well when going against the grain.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TAMPA BAY, SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES, PITTSBURGH, KANSAS CITY, BOSTON, MINNESOTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in 2025. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and an ROI of -13.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY handle TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-TB, MIN-COL

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 359-373 but for +42.72 units and a ROI of 5.8% over the L3 seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-110 at TOR), BALTIMORE (+104 at TB), NY METS (-156 vs CIN), MINNESOTA (-238 at COL), HOUSTON (+116 at SEA), DETROIT (-218 at TEX)

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 600-785 but for +29.28 units and a ROI of 2.1% over the L3 seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+104 at TB), NY YANKEES (+108 at ATL), LA ANGELS (+147 at PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+112 at PIT), ATHLETICS (+105 at CLE), HOUSTON (+116 at SEA), ST LOUIS (+122 at AZ), MILWAUKEE (+129 at LAD)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 571-644 record but for +49.79 units and a ROI of 4.1% over the L3 seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-110 at TOR), KANSAS CITY (-123 at MIA), SAN DIEGO (-126 at WSH), BALTIMORE (+104 at TB), BOSTON (-142 at CHC), ST LOUIS (+122 at AZ), DETROIT (-218 at TEX)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1855-1763 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.99 units. This represents a R.O.I. of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-180 vs LAA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+112 at PIT), NY YANKEES (+108 at ATL), ATLANTA (-132 vs NYY), ARIZONA (-148 vs STL), COLORADO (+191 vs MIN)

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1845-2348 (44%) for -212.20 units and a R.O.I. of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-123 at MIA), SAN DIEGO (-126 at WSH), BOSTON (-142 at CHC), ST LOUIS (+122 at AZ), DETROIT (-218 at TEX) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3753-3300 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -521.54 units and a R.O.I. of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-110 vs SF), PHILADELPHIA (-180 vs LAA), ATLANTA (-132 vs NYY), CHICAGO CUBS (+117 vs BOS), ARIZONA (-148 vs STL), COLORADO (+191 vs MIN), LA DODGERS (-163 vs MIL), SEATTLE (-144 vs HOU) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 237-246 run (+17.11 units, ROI: 3.5%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-110 at TOR)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of 5-games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 215-143 in their last 358 tries (+30.98 units, ROI: 8.7%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+133 at LAD)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 114-123 (-57.28 units, ROI: -24.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+117 vs BOS)

Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won 9 games in a row or more, the lowest priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks on 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 35-19 (+17.08 units, ROI: 31.6%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+133 at LAD)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS +167 (+17 diff), CHICAGO CUBS +117 (+16)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA -148 (+23 diff), PITTSBURGH -136 (+23), SAN DIEGO -126 (+22) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DET-TEX OVER 7 (+0.7), BOS-CHC OVER 6.5 (+0.7), MIN-COL OVER 10.5 (+0.6), SD-WSH OVER 8 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-PIT UNDER 9 (-1.1), MIL-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.8), CIN-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), SF-TOR UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) SAN DIEGO (53-45) at (952) WASHINGTON (39-59)

Trend: Nick Pivetta is 11-3 (+8.33 units) in DAY games within -150 to +130 line range since start of ’24 season

Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-126 at WSH)

(953) CINCINNATI (52-47) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (55-44)

Trend: CIN is 8-2 (+8.89 units) as a large underdog of +129 or more by starter Andrew Abbott since start of ’23 season

Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+129 at NYM)

Trend: NYM is 17-0 (+17.00 units) as a -130 favorite or higher with starter David Peterson since start of ’24 season

Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-156 vs CIN)

(959) BALTIMORE (43-54) at (960) TAMPA BAY (52-47)

Trend: Trevor Rogers is 16-30 (-7.80 units) on the ROAD since 2020

Trend: Trevor Rogers is 13-35 (-18.47 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 since 2020

Trends Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+104 at TB)

Trend: UNDER the total is 31-17-2 (+12.30 units) in Orioles’ ROAD games this season

Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-TB (o/u at 9)

Trend: TB is 4-11 (-7.27 units) versus DIVISIONAL opponents with starter Ryan Pepiot since start of ’24 season

Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-126 vs BAL)

(963) DETROIT (59-40) at (964) TEXAS (50-49)

Trend: Tarik Skubal is 17-3 (+11.84 units) in his L20 NIGHT game starts

Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-218 at TEX)

Trend: UNDER the total is 33-14 (+17.60 units) in Rangers’ HOME games this season

Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-TEX (o/u at 7)

(965) HOUSTON (56-42) at (966) SEATTLE (53-45)

Trend: HOU is 2-8 (-7.55 units) with starter Hunter Brown as a -145 favorite or worse (including underdog) in DIVISIONAL games since start of ’24 season

Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+118 at SEA)

Trend: SEA is 14-3 (+10.12 units) in HOME games with starter Bryan Woo since start of ’24 season

Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-144 vs HOU)

(967) SAN FRANCISCO (52-47) at (968) TORONTO (57-41)

Trend: Jose Berrios is 27-8 (+15.59 units) in HOME DAY games in L6 seasons

Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-110 vs SF)

(969) LOS ANGELES-AL (48-50) at (970) PHILADELPHIA (56-42)

Trend: PHI is 8-10 (-10.38 units) as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range with starter Ranger Suarez in L4 seasons

Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-180 vs LAA)

(971) NEW YORK-AL (54-44) at (972) ATLANTA (43-54)

Trend: NYY is 1-7 (-5.55 units) as a ML underdog this season

Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+108 at ATL)

(973) CHICAGO-AL (34-65) at (974) PITTSBURGH (39-60)

Trend: Aaron Civale is 22-9 (+7.47 units) against teams with a < 43% win pct in L6 seasons

Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+112 at PIT)

(975) KANSAS CITY (47-52) at (976) MIAMI (46-51)

Trend: UNDER the total is 49-31-1 (+14.90 units) when KC faces RH starters this season

Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-MIA (o/u at 7.5)

(979) MINNESOTA (47-51) at (980) COLORADO (24-74)

Trend: MIN is 21-4 (+14.53 units) vs teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-243 at COL)

Series #16: Athletics at Cleveland, Fri 7/18-Sun 7/20
Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 20-5 (80%, +13.67 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022.
– The ROI on this trend is 54.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-127 vs ATH)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Thursday, July 24)

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