The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, July 27, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: TB is 16-4 (+12.55 units) within the -130 to +125 line range with starter Shane Baz since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-115 at CIN) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 321-351 but for +90.10 units and an ROI of 13.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+114 at HOU), CLEVELAND (+109 at KC), SAN DIEGO (+107 at STL) 

This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 250-127 for +47.34 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +12.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-144 vs. AZ), MILWAUKEE (-156 vs. MIA)

Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 217-143 in their last 360 tries (+33.40 units, ROI: 9.3%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-122 at SF)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 134-87 for +33.98 units, and an ROI of 15.4%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%. This is proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-106 vs. LAD), PITTSBURGH (-151 vs. AZ) 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 117-146 for -30.07 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-165 at CWS), CLEVELAND (+108 at KC), HOUSTON (-145 vs ATH), SAN DIEGO (+107 at STL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 250-127 for +47.34 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +12.6%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-144 vs AZ), MILWAUKEE (-156 vs MIA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 101-192 for -35.28 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+168 at BAL) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 75-34 for -1.53 units. This has finally reached the RED, following suit with the past few years.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-207 vs. COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 68-28 for +5.26 units. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-207 vs. COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 292-294 for +37.86 units, ROI +6.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-106 vs. LAD), CINCINNATI (-105 vs. TB), TORONTO (-101 at DET), CLEVELAND (+108 at KC), SAN DIEGO (+107 at STL) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 133-145 for -10.62 units (ROI -3.8%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 70-66, +1.29 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – ATHLETICS (+119 at HOU), MIAMI (+128 at MIL) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 157-118 for +11.88 units, an ROI of 4.3%. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-105 vs.. TB), TORONTO (-101 at DET), TEXAS (-122 vs. ATL) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): TAMPA BAY, KANSAS CITY, ST LOUIS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their best overall in divisional games since the start of 2024, going 670-692 (49.2%) for -27.82 units and a ROI of -2.0%. This is about five full percentage points better for return. If you’re looking for a spot where these majorities are even better, try getting behind them when they back the underdogs in these divisional contests. In those games, these have gone 95-106 (47.3%) for -0.62 units and an ROI of -0.3%. This advantage is even greater and an indication that bettors do well when going against the grain.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, BALTIMORE, LA DODGERS, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO CUBS, TEXAS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, KANSAS CITY 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up and down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in 2025. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in JULY games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and an ROI of -13.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY handle TEAMS THIS MONTH 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-LAA 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 366-375 but for +47.97 units and an ROI of 6.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (+111 vs. PHI), TAMPA BAY (-115 at CIN), DETROIT (-122 vs TOR), HOUSTON (-138 vs. ATH), ATLANTA (+100 at TEX) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 611-790 but for +38.75 units and an ROI of 2.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+129 at PIT), COLORADO (+175 at BAL), MIAMI (+134 at MIL), ATHLETICS (+114 at HOU), CLEVELAND (+109 at KC), WASHINGTON (+139 at MIN), SAN DIEGO (+107 at STL)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 321-351 but for +90.10 units and an ROI of 13.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+114 at HOU), CLEVELAND (+109 at KC), SAN DIEGO (+107 at STL) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 582-650 record but for +55.08 units and an ROI of 4.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+129 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (-115 at CIN), COLORADO (+175 at BAL), LA DODGERS (-115 at BOS) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1866-1775 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -253.18 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-136 at NYY), BALTIMORE (-207 vs. COL), WASHINGTON (+138 at MIN) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1861-2362 (44.1%) for -208.32 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (+129 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (-115 at CIN), COLORADO (+168 at BAL), LA DODGERS (-115 at BOS), NY METS (-122 at SF) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3774-3318 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -524.16 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-105 vs. TB), BALTIMORE (-207 vs. COL), TEXAS (-122 vs. ATL) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 556-467 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.92 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-122 vs. TOR)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 163-125 (+19.86 units, ROI: 6.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-122 at SF), TEXAS (-122 vs. ATL)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 217-143 in their last 360 tries (+33.40 units, ROI: 9.3%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-122 at SF) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CINCINNATI -105 (+25 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -127 (+32 diff), PITTSBURGH -151 (+16), KANSAS CITY -132 (+15) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIA-MIL OVER 7 (+0.8), PHI-NYY OVER 7.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-BAL UNDER 10 (-0.7), SD-STL UNDER 9 (-0.5) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(903) MIAMI (50-53) at (904) MILWAUKEE (61-43)
Trend: MIA is 3-8 (-6.57 units) against NL Central/West opponents with starter Eury Perez since start of 2023 season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+130 at MIL) 

(905) SAN DIEGO (56-49) at (906) ST LOUIS (54-52)
Trend: STL is 31-21 (+7.39 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-131 vs SD) 

(907) NEW YORK-NL (61-44) at (908) SAN FRANCISCO (54-51)
Trend: NYM is 12-3 (+8.35 units) in the shorter pick’em/favorite line scenario (-110 to -131) with starter Kodai Senga in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-122 at SF)

Trend: Over the total is 19-10-1 (+8.00 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYM-SF (o/u at 8) 

(909) TORONTO (63-42) at (910) DETROIT (60-46)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 22-6 (+12.15 units) in the last 28 day games starts
Trend: Max Scherzer is 13-10 (+5.20 units) as an underdog in the last six seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+107 at DET)

(915) SEATTLE (56-49) at (916) LOS ANGELES-AL (50-55)
Trend: LAA is 10-22 (-11.77 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+140 vs SEA) 

(917) COLORADO (27-77) at (918) BALTIMORE (46-58)
Trend: COL is 3-10 (-3.87 units) in day games with starter Austin Gomber since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+168 at BAL) 

(921) PHILADELPHIA (60-44) at (922) NEW YORK-AL (56-48)
Trend: PHI is 25-10 (+9.07 units) in the last 35 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-132 at NYY)

Trend: NYY is 2-8 (-5.47 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+108 vs. PHI)

(923) TAMPA BAY (53-52) at (924) CINCINNATI (55-50)
Trend: TB is 16-4 (+12.55 units) within the -130 to +125 line range with starter Shane Baz since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-115 at CIN)

Trend: Brady Singer is 18-7 (+11.16 units) in his last 25 home day games
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-105 vs TB) 

(929) ATLANTA (44-59) at (930) TEXAS (55-50)
Trend: ATL is the worst team to bet on the road this season (18-33 record, -25.55 units)
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+100 at TEX)

Trend: Under the total is 23-9-1 (+13.10 units) in Rangers’ day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-TEX (o/u at 9) 

Series #14: San Diego at St Louis, Thu 7/24-Sun 7/27
Trend: Home teams are 18-7 (72%, +9.48 units) in the last 25 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 37.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-131 vs. SD)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Thursday, July 31)

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