The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, March 29, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 351-383 but for +97.88 units and an ROI of 13.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+129 at ATL) 

* MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 61-33 SU for +15.84 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-120 at STL) 

Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 10-25 (-14.08 units) vs NL East opponents in his career
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+129 at PHI) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. For the 2026 season, the record is 6-3 (+0.56 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-259 vs WSH), BALTIMORE (-163 vs MIN), HOUSTON (-181 vs LAABOSTON (-136 at CIN), TAMPA BAY (-120 at STL)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-156 vs CLE), MILWAUKEE (-175 vs CWS)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks of 2025. For the 2026 season, the record is 5-7 (-4.52 units).
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+129 at PHI)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The ’25 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. For the ’26 season, the record is 1-0 (+1.00 unit).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-259 vs WSH) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. For the 2026 season, the record is 5-0 (+5.00 units).
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-194 vs COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the ’23-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. For the 2026 season, the record is 5-0 (+5.00 units).
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-194 vs COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! For the 2026 season, the record is 3-6 (-1.55 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+129 at SEA), TEXAS (+129 at PHI) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For 2025, they were an uncustomary 220-211 for +18.9 units (ROI 4.4%). For the 2026 season, this record is 1-2 (-1.02 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+100 vs TB) 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 665-866 but for +34.17 units and an ROI of 2.2% since the start of the 2022 season (everybody 3/29)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+135 at BAL), KANSAS CITY (+129 at ATL), TEXAS (+129 at PHI), ATHLETICS (+141 at TOR), COLORADO (+159 at MIA), PITTSBURGH (+153 at NYM), LA ANGELS (+149 at HOU), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+144 at MIL), CLEVELAND (+129 at SEA)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 351-383 but for +97.88 units and an ROI of 13.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+129 at ATL) 

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 156-63 for +14.14 units and an ROI of 6.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-181 vs LAA) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 625-718 record but for +31.55 units and an ROI of 2.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+129 at ATL), COLORADO (+159 at MIA), PITTSBURGH (+153 at NYM), WASHINGTON (+209 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+144 at MIL) 

MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 47-22 SU for +12.06 units in the last six seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-156 vs TEX) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1986-1869 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -245.88 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS, HOUSTON, CHICAGO CUBS

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,977-2,521 (44%) for -247.06 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO WHITE SOX 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 4,012-3,487 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -502.55 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI, MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON, ST LOUIS, SEATTLE 

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 77-121 SU (-24.71 units) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+129 at SEA), TEXAS (+129 at PHI), CINCINNATI (+113 vs BOS), ST LOUIS (+100 vs TB)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 61-33 SU for +15.84 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-120 at STL) 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 437-493 SU but for +70.36 units since the start of the 2021 season (including 155-161 SU for +42.04 units in the last 316 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+141 at TOR), KANSAS CITY (+129 at ATL), COLORADO (+159 at MIA), PITTSBURGH (+153 at NYM), LA ANGELS (+149 at HOU), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+144 at MIL) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +209 (+40 diff), MINNESOTA +135 (+16), CINCINNATI +113 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-CIN OVER 8 (+0.8), CWS-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.58)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(955) WASHINGTON (1-1) at (956) CHICAGO-NL (1-1)
Trend: WSH is 7-23 (-12.93 units) against NL teams with a win pct between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: CHC is 19-6 (+10.29 units) as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-259 vs WSH) 

(965) TEXAS (1-1) at (966) PHILADELPHIA (1-1)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 10-25 (-14.08 units) vs NL East opponents in his career
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+129 at PHI) 

(967) KANSAS CITY (0-2) at (968) ATLANTA (2-0)
Trend: Seth Lugo is 10-17 (-7.77 units) on the road against teams with a winning record since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+129 at ATL) 

Series #12: Pittsburgh at NY Mets, Thu 3/26-Sun 3/29
Trend: Favorites are 22-5 (81.5%, +13.38 units) in the last 27 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 49.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-186 vs PIT)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 8:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the ‘24 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): ST LOUIS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%. Diving deeper into specifics, these four different systems will continue to be tracked for 2026:
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, MIAMI, NY METS, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, CHICAGO CUBS, SEATTLE

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