Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, September 14, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Adrian Houser is 17-6 (+13.23 units) in his last 23 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+141 at CHC)
Trend: Under the total is 19-8 (70.4%, +10.14 units) in the last 27 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 37.6%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 8)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 345-377 but for +95.42 units and an ROI of 13.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+133 at PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+140 at CLE), ST LOUIS (+153 at MIL), ARIZONA (+104 at MIN), TAMPA BAY (+141 at CHC)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 190-130 for +38.47 units, and an ROI of +12%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+129 at PHI)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an uncustomary good start, 108-53 for -10.54 units. We have been hovering the red for about a month now, like usual.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-197 vs STL), SEATTLE (-226 vs LAA)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a strong start, 125-43 for +16.74 units, an ROI of +10%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-357 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams just went negative, 78-36 for -1.55 units. September is typically a month where we see more of these plays qualifying daily due to favorite overpricing.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-197 vs STL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, bringing the season record to 412-441 for +41.72 units, ROI +4.9%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+129 at PHI), BALTIMORE (+172 at TOR), MIAMI (+111 vs DET), TEXAS (+145 at NYM), ARIZONA (-102 at MIN), ATHLETICS (-108 vs CIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 189-190 for +6.08 units (ROI 1.6%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L2 regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 96-91, +0.92 units for the year.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – PHILADELPHIA (-158 vs KC), TORONTO (-212 vs BAL), NY YANKEES (+127 at BOS)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 177-239 for -22.42 units, an ROI of -5.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+114 vs HOU), DETROIT (-134 at MIA), NY METS (-178 vs TEX), ST LOUIS (+160 at MIL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA, CINCINNATI, BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-MIA, CIN-ATH
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 395-404 but for +47.31 units and an ROI of 5.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+118 vs HOU), KANSAS CITY (+133 at PHI), DETROIT (-134 at MIA), NY METS (-172 vs TEX), ST LOUIS (+153 at MIL), LA ANGELS (+182 at SEA), BOSTON (-155 vs NYY
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 655-845 but for +41.79 units and an ROI of 2.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+133 at PHI), BALTIMORE (+168 at TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+140 at CLE), TEXAS (+141 at NYM), ST LOUIS (+153 at MIL), ARIZONA (+104 at MIN), TAMPA BAY (+141 at CHC), NY YANKEES (+127 at BOS)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 345-377 but for +95.42 units and an ROI of 13.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+133 at PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+140 at CLE), ST LOUIS (+153 at MIL), ARIZONA (+104 at MIN), TAMPA BAY (+141 at CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 149-58 for +18.77 units and an ROI of 9.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-207 vs BAL), MILWAUKEE (-187 vs STL), SAN DIEGO (-357 vs COL), SEATTLE (-225 vs LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 614-699 record, but for +38.56 units and an ROI of 2.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+168 at TOR), DETROIT (-134 at MIA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+140 at CLE), COLORADO (+275 at SD), LA ANGELS (+182 at SEA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1956-1846 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -249.28 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-187 vs STL), SAN DIEGO (-357 vs COL), LA DODGERS (-136 at SF), ATHLETICS (-108 vs CIN)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1947-2474 (44%) for -229.78 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+140 at CLE)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3947-3440 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -505.63 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-207 vs BAL), MIAMI (+110 vs DET), PHILADELPHIA (-163 vs KC), MILWAUKEE (-187 vs STL), SAN DIEGO (-357 vs COL), SAN FRANCISCO (+112 vs LAD), SEATTLE (-225 vs LAA), ATHLETICS (-108 vs CIN)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 581-481 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +29.22 units, for an ROI of 2.8%.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-102 vs PIT)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 357-179 (66.6%) for +47.50 units and an ROI of 8.9%!
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-357 vs COL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 325-288 (53%) for +23.70 units and an ROI of 3.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+112 vs LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-21 (+10.01 units, ROI: 25.7%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 89-170 (-59.55 units, ROI: -23%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-172 vs TEX)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 256-266 run (+14.35 units, ROI: 3.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+153 at MIL), NY METS (-172 vs TEX)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 32-65 (-7.90 units, ROI: -8.1%) in their last 97 tries.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (+141 at NYM)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +275 (+75 diff), BALTIMORE +168 (+31)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -168 (+20)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.7), NYY-BOS OVER 7.5 (+0.7), TB-CHC OVER 7 (+0.5), LAD-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DET-MIA UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(953) ST LOUIS (72-77) at (954) MILWAUKEE (91-58)
Trend: MIL is 48-26 (+13.38 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-187 vs STL)
(969) KANSAS CITY (74-75) at (970) PHILADELPHIA (89-60)
Trend: PHI is 25-6 (+15.35 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in L6 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-158 vs KC)
(975) ARIZONA (74-75) at (976) MINNESOTA (65-83)
Trend: MIN is 7-15 (-10.30 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-120 vs AZ)
(977) TAMPA BAY (73-75) at (978) CHICAGO-NL (84-64)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 17-6 (+13.23 units) in his last 23 day game start
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+141 at CHC)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #6: Chi White Sox at Cleveland, Fri 9/12-Sun 9/14
Trend: Under the total is 19-8 (70.4%, +10.14 units) in the last 27 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 37.6%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 8)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Monday, September 15)
