Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, September 28, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 23-4 (85.2%, +13.15 units) surge hosting Colorado.
– The ROI on this trend is 48.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-309 vs COL)
Trend: PHI is 21-2 (+17.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since start of ’24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-224 vs MIN)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 408-415 but for +50.79 units and an ROI of 6.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+113 at CHC), ATLANTA (-207 vs PIT), ARIZONA (-101 at SD), COLORADO (+243 at SF), TAMPA BAY (+167 at TOR)
Trend: Under the total is 32-17-2 (+13.30 units) in Rangers’ day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-CLE (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 206-138 for +46.98 units, and an ROI of +13.7%! For the full ’24 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-105 at WSH), PITTSBURGH (+163 at ATL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 181-223 for -38.84 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.6%. Even though we’ve lost some steam on fading these teams lately, it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+118 vs KC), HOUSTON (-126 at LAA), SEATTLE (-119 vs LAD), SAN DIEGO (-122 vs AZ)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 350-209 for +28.52 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-144 at ATH), TORONTO (-209 vs TB), MILWAUKEE (-139 vs CIN)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 148-265 for -33.43 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -8.1%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-116 vs CWS), COLORADO (+245 at SF)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 118-61 for -19.01 units (ROI of -10.6%). We have been hovering in the red for over a month now, like usual.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-224 vs MIN), TORONTO (-209 vs TB)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams have had a very strong season, 132-43 for +24 units, an ROI of +13.7%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-313 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, having a season record of 455-481 for +54.64 units, ROI +5.8%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+112 vs DET), ATHLETICS (+118 vs KC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-105 at WSH), PITTSBURGH (+163 at ATL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, after a strangely strong three-week surge, they are 210-204 for +15.58 units (ROI 3.8%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so this year’s results are eye-opening, now 106-99, +2.14 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – LA DODGERS (-102 at SEA), CINCINNATI (+114 at MIL)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 194-264 for -27.49 units, an ROI of -6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+245 at SF), TAMPA BAY (+169 at TOR), ARIZONA (+101 at SD), ATLANTA (-201 vs PIT), ST LOUIS (+113 at CHC)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and it has recovered from a slow start to post a current record of 256-194 for +18.40 units (ROI 4.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-186 vs BAL), SAN FRANCISCO (-313 vs COL), TORONTO (-209 vs TB)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): DETROIT, WASHINGTON, MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, WASHINGTON, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-ATH
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 408-415 but for +50.79 units and an ROI of 6.2% since the start of the ’22 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+113 at CHC), ATLANTA (-207 vs PIT), ARIZONA (-101 at SD), COLORADO (+243 at SF), TAMPA BAY (+167 at TOR)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 665-859 but for +41.17 units and an ROI of 2.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+151 at NYY), MINNESOTA (+181 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (+167 at TOR), CINCINNATI (+114 at MIL), TEXAS (+118 at CLE), PITTSBURGH (+168 at ATL), ST LOUIS (+113 at CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 152-63 for +10.14 units and an ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-186 vs BAL), SAN FRANCISCO (-309 vs COL), TORONTO (-206 vs TB)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 625-711 record, but for +38.55 units and an ROI of 2.9% since the start of the ’22 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+151 at NYY), ST LOUIS (+113 at CHC), TAMPA BAY (+167 at TOR), COLORADO (+243 at SF), TEXAS (+118 at CLE), ARIZONA (-101 at SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1970-2504 (44%) for -237.45 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+151 at NYY), TAMPA BAY (+167 at TOR), DETROIT (-132 at BOS), TEXAS (+118 at CLE), ARIZONA (-101 at SD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3993-3476 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -506.02 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-186 vs BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (-137 vs STL), TORONTO (-206 vs TB), WASHINGTON (-116 vs CWS), SAN DIEGO (-120 vs AZ)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 588-483 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +34.42 units, for an ROI of 3.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+108 vs DET), MIAMI (+107 vs NYM), PHILADELPHIA (-224 vs MIN)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 364-181 (66.8%) for +50.99 units and an ROI of 9.4%!
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-137 vs STL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 264-281 run (+7.37 units, ROI: 1.4%).
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+243 at SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 131-132 (-54.11 units, ROI: -20.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-186 vs BAL), LA DODGERS (-102 at SEA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +245 (+40), PITTSBURGH +163 (+36), ATHLETICS +118 (+26), LA DODGERS -102 (+23), TAMPA BAY +169 (+22)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -137 (+35 diff), SAN DIEGO -122 (+27)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-ATL OVER 7.5 (+1.2), LAD-SEA OVER 8 (+0.9)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BAL-NYY UNDER 9 (-0.6), HOU-LAA UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) COLORADO (43-118) at (952) SAN FRANCISCO (80-81)
Trend: Under the total is 46-32-2 (+10.90 units) in Rockies’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-SF (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: SF is 17-6 (+7.87 units) at home as a favorite vs Divisional opponents with starter Logan Webb in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-313 vs COL)
(953) NEW YORK-NL (83-78) at (954) MIAMI (78-83)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 8-10 (-6.17 units) against NL East opponents in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-132 at MIA)
Trend: MIA is 18-15 (+5.36 units) as a shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last four seasons
Trend: MIA is 73-40 (+21.11 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 vs NYM)
(955) CINCINNATI (83-78) at (956) MILWAUKEE (96-65)
Trend: MIL is 9-16 (-16.88 units) in September/October with starter Freddy Peralta in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-139 vs CIN)
(957) ARIZONA (80-81) at (958) SAN DIEGO (89-72)
Trend: JP Sears is 13-26 (-8.10 units) in DAY game starts in last three years
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-122 vs AZ)
(959) PITTSBURGH (71-90) at (960) ATLANTA (75-86)
Trend: PIT is 27-53 (-20.29 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+163 at ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 16-7-2 (+8.25 units) when Charlie Morton is a -134 favorite or higher since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-ATL (o/u at 7.5)
(961) ST LOUIS (78-83) at (962) CHICAGO-NL (91-70)
Trend: STL is 27-38 (-19.12 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at CHC)
(963) BALTIMORE (75-86) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (93-68)
Trend: Under the total is 46-31-3 (+11.90 units) in Orioles’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-NYY (o/u at 9)
(969) HOUSTON (86-75) at (970) LOS ANGELES-AL (72-89)
Trend: Over the total is 44-33-3 (+7.70 units) in Angels’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-LAA (o/u at 9.5)
(971) TAMPA BAY (77-84) at (972) TORONTO (93-68)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 12-17 (-12.03 units) in the last 29 games vs AL East foes
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-206 vs TB)
(973) TEXAS (81-80) at (974) CLEVELAND (87-74)
Trend: Under the total is 32-17-2 (+13.30 units) in Rangers’ day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-CLE (o/u at 7.5)
(975) MINNESOTA (70-91) at (976) PHILADELPHIA (95-66)
Trend: Under the total is 14-6 (+7.29 units) when MIN is a plus-money underdog with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-PHI (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: MIN is 13-22 (-12.45 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend: PHI is 21-2 (+17.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-224 vs MIN)
(977) CHICAGO-AL (59-102) at (978) WASHINGTON (66-95)
Trend: CWS is 89-62 (+14.88 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-1.5 at WSH)
(979) LOS ANGELES-NL (92-69) at (980) SEATTLE (90-71)
Trend: LAD is 38-40 (-21.78 units) in ROAD games this season
Trend: Bryce Miller is 16-10 (+6.63 units) versus teams with a winning record since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-119 vs LAD)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #10: Detroit at Boston, Fri 9/26-Sun 9/28
Trend: DETROIT is 8-14 (36.4%, -4.99 units) in the last 22 games vs. Boston
– The ROI on this trend is -22.7%
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-132 at BOS)
Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 9/26-Sun 9/28
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 23-4 (85.2%, +13.15 units) surge hosting Colorado.
– The ROI on this trend is 48.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-309 vs COL)
Series #27: Cincinnati at Milwaukee, Fri 9/26-Sun 9/28
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 31-13 (70.5%, +15.99 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 36.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-139 vs CIN)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
