The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, April 2, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 352-386 but for +96.14 units and an ROI of 13% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+129 at KC) 

* Since the start of the 2025 season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 365-220 for +30.62 units (ROI: 5.2%), when not matched against the same.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-120 at AZ) 

Trend: SF is 19-7 (+13.42 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+104 vs NYM)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks of 2025. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 13-10 (+0.07 units).
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-120 at AZ) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so the ‘25 results of 107-100 for +3.03 units were disappointing. For the ’26 season, these teams have a record of 2-1 (+1.19 units).
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+100 vs ATL) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in ’26. For the ’26 season, these teams have started unusually fast with a record of 6-1 (+7.09 units).
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+129 at KC)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 438-349 for +34.40 units and an ROI of 4.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+100 vs ATL) 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 409-421 but for +44.80 units and an ROI of 5.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+129 at KC) 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 208-157 for +16.18 units and an ROI of 4.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-120 at AZ), NY METS (-126 at SF) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 352-386 but for +96.14 units and an ROI of 13% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+129 at KC) 

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 134-167 for -30.18 units and an ROI of -10% since the start of the ’22 season
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+100 vs ATL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1988-2533 (44%) for -243.95 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-126 at SF) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4027-3496 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -503.03 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-156 vs MIN) 

Bats revert to the mean after a high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 139-98-17 (58.6%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-KC (o/u at 9.5) 

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allowing >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 178-209 SU record for +40.73 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+129 at KC)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 442-504 SU but for +65.86 units since the start of the 2021 season (including 155-163 SU for +40.04 units in the last 318 divisional games).
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+129 at KC)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (12 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: KANSAS CITY -156 (+14 diff)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MIN-KC UNDER 9.5 (-0.5) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(953) NEW YORK-NL (3-3) at (954) SAN FRANCISCO (2-4)
Trend: NYM is 6-11 (-5.99 units) on the road within line range -129 to +129 with starter David Peterson since start of ’24 season
Trend: SF is 19-7 (+13.42 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+104 vs NYM) 

Series #9: Minnesota at Kansas City, Mon 3/30-Thu 4/2
Trend: Home teams in the Royals-Twins AL Central rivalry are on a 40-13 (75.5%, +26.66 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 50.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-156 vs MIN) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-KC, ATL-ARI 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES YET THIS SEASON (FIRST ONE TOMORROW, 4/3)

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