Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, August 14, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 130-174 for -44.39 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.6%.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-132 at BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 142-55 for +17.41 units and an ROI of 8.8% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-199 vs ATL)
Trend: COL is 5-28 (-20.11 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+143 vs AZ)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 23-7 (+12.12 units) in his last 30 day-game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-107 vs CHC)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 173-108 for +46.26 units, and an ROI of 16.5%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and since the All-Star break, it is 46-37 for +12.22 units.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-113 at TOR)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 130-174 for -44.39 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.6%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up. This angle is 27-42 for -13.84 units since ASB.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-132 at BAL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 282-159 for +29.79 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +6.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-113 at TOR), PHILADELPHIA (-200 at WSH)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 115-211 for -32.04 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.8%!
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+143 vs AZ)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 85-42 for -9.23 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red and we are again!
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-200 at WSH), NY METS (-199 vs ATL), DETROIT (-210 at MIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 149-161 for -8.79 units (ROI -2.8%).
System Match (FADE): 2-games – COLORADO (+143 vs AZ)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-BAL
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 635-808 but for +52.74 units and an ROI of 3.7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+114 at CLE), ATLANTA (+162 at NYM)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 142-55 for +17.41 units and an ROI of 8.8% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-199 vs ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 363-313 record for +45.90 units and an ROI of 6.8% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-175 at COL)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 595-667 record, but for +52.37 units and an ROI of 4.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-132 at BAL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1894-1800 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -257.36 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+114 at CLE), ATLANTA (+162 at NYM)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,896-2,403 (44.1%) for -211.50 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-196 at WSH), DETROIT (-220 at MIN)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3844-3364 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -512.74 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+159 vs PHI), NY METS (-199 vs ATL), COLORADO (+143 vs AZ)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 314-279 (53%) for +20.82 units and an ROI of 3.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-138 vs MIA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY (next couple tomorrow, August 15)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA -175 (+27 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -113 (+25), PHILADELPHIA -200 (+20), CLEVELAND -126 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-WSH OVER 8.5 (+0.8), MIA-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.6), CHC-TOR OVER 8 (+0.5), DET-MIN OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-BAL UNDER 10 (-0.7), ATL-NYM UNDER 9 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) PHILADELPHIA (69-51) at (902) WASHINGTON (48-72)
Trend: Under the total is 37-20-5 (+15.00 units) in Phillies’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 9)
(903) ATLANTA (52-68) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (64-56)
Trend: ATL is 22-38 (-25.41 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+158 at NYM)
(905) ARIZONA (59-62) at (906) COLORADO (32-88)
Trend: COL is 5-28 (-20.11 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+143 vs AZ)
(907) SEATTLE (67-54) at (908) BALTIMORE (54-66)
Trend: SEA is 24-34 (-13.04 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at BAL)
(909) DETROIT (70-52) at (910) MINNESOTA (57-63)
Trend: Tarik Skubal is 19-4 (+11.97 units) in his last 23 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-220 at MIN)
Trend: MIN is 8-3 (+6.33 units) as a +100 or worse underdog at home with starter Bailey Ober in the last four seasons
Trend: MIN is 5-0 (+5.00 units) at home vs Detroit Tigers with starter Bailey Ober in the last four seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+178 vs DET)
(911) CHICAGO-NL (68-51) at (912) TORONTO (70-51)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 23-7 (+12.12 units) in his last 30 day-game starts
Trend: TOR is 39-20 (+13.29 units) in home games this season
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-107 vs CHC)
(913) MIAMI (58-62) at (914) CLEVELAND (62-57)
Trend: MIA is 17-14 (+5.34 units) as a shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+114 at CLE)
Trend: CLE is 27-9 (+17.48 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with Tanner Bibee since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (*if they fall into this line range, -138 currently*)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: tomorrow, August 15)
