Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, August 28, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: PHI is 24-6 (+14.35 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-187 vs ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 39-17-4 (+20.30 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-BAL (o/u at 8)
NYM letdown in next game after series vs. PHI: 12-22 (35.3%) in the last 34, -15.20 units, ROI: -44.7%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-260 vs MIA)
Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 123-127 (-53.13 units, ROI: -21.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-198 at CWS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 184-115 for +49.76 units, and an ROI of +16.6%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and since the All-Star break, it is 57-45 for +14.72 units.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-101 at STL)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 143-197 for -52.03 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15.3%. FADE these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become as reliable as almost anything else in this report. This angle is 40-65 for -21.50 units since the All-Star Break
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-253 vs COL), ST LOUIS (-121 vs PIT)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 299-179 for +19.06 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +4%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-204 at BAL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 123-226 for -30.75 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -8.8%!
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+202 at HOU)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have again gone negative after an uncustomary good start, 98-46 for -5.18 units. We have been hovering the red for about three weeks now, like usual.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-204 at BAL), NY YANKEES (-198 at CWS)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a strong start, 114-38 for +17.10 units, an ROI of +11.3%.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-253 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 75-31 for +6.13 units. Still, we remain very close to going into the usual negative territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-253 vs COL), NY YANKEES (-198 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. This season’s record stands at 373-396 for +39.05 units, ROI +5.1%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-101 at STL), ATLANTA (+152 at PHI), MIAMI (+207 at NYM)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 80-82, -6.38 units for the year.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – SAN FRANCISCO (-108 vs CHC), NY METS (-260 vs MIA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 155-208 for -16.49 units, an ROI of -4.5%. After a couple of rough weeks, this is now back at “average performing level” so we will continue to monitor it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+165 vs BOS), PHILADELPHIA (-187 vs ATL)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 203-156 for +10.96 units (ROI 3.1%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-204 at BAL), NY YANKEES (-198 at CWS)
Strategies using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so consider that when backing.System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 415-329 for +39.16 units and an ROI of 5.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-260 vs MIA), NY YANKEES (-199 at CWS)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 383-397 but for +41.68 units and an ROI of 5.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+160 vs BOS)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 642-828 but for +41.09 units and an ROI of 2.8% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+134 at MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 372-320 record for +48.10 units and an ROI of 7% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+152 at PHI), NY YANKEES (-198 at CWS)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 604-683 record but for +44.37 units and an ROI of 3.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+202 at HOU), CHICAGO CUBS (-112 at SF)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1920-1822 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -258.43 units. This represents an ROI of -6.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-108 vs CHC), ATLANTA (+152 at PHI), NY YANKEES (-198 vs CWS)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1920-2433 (44.1%) for -216.61 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+202 at HOU), PITTSBURGH (-101 at STL), MIAMI (+207 at NYM)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3899-3399 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -500.93 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-108 vs CHC), NY METS (-260 vs MIA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 573-478 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +25.49 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-121 vs PIT), PHILADELPHIA (-187 vs ATL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home teams coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 350-175 (66.7%) for +48.31 units and an ROI of 9.2%!
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (*if they become favored vs CHC, -108 currently)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 320-282 (53.2%) for +25.01 units and an ROI of 4.2% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+160 vs NYY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 123-127 (-53.13 units, ROI: -21.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-198 at CWS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +207 (+47 diff), COLORADO +202 (+31)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BOSTON -204 (+16 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) ARIZONA (65-69) at (902) MILWAUKEE (83-51)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 2-7 (-10.51 units) as a day game large favorite (-164 or more) in the last six seasons
Trend: MIL is 45-23 (+14.67 units) in home games this season
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MILWAUKEE (-164 vs AZ)
(903) PITTSBURGH (59-75) at (904) ST LOUIS (65-69)
Trend: Under the total is 33-20-2 (+11.00 units) in Pirates’ day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-STL (o/u at 8)
Trend: STL is 9-4 (+3.02 units) in home day games vs PIT/CHC/CIN in the last six seasons with starter Miles Mikolas
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ST LOUIS (-121 vs PIT)
(905) CHICAGO-NL (76-57) at (906) SAN FRANCISCO (65-68)
Trend: CHC is 27-7 (+16.62 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since start of 2024 season
Trend: CHC is 18-5 (+10.48 units) as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga since start of 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-112 at SF)
Trend: Over the total is 26-15-3 (+9.50 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-SF (o/u at 7)
(907) ATLANTA (61-72) at (908) PHILADELPHIA (76-57)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 25-27 (+13.62 units) as an underdog of +135 or more in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+152 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 24-6 (+14.35 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-187 vs ATL)
(911) BOSTON (74-60) at (912) BALTIMORE (60-73)
Trend: Under the total is 39-17-4 (+20.30 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-BAL (o/u at 8)
(913) NEW YORK-AL (73-60) at (914) CHICAGO-AL (48-85)
Trend: NYY is 23-41 (-21.74 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-1.5 at CWS)
(915) COLORADO (38-95) at (916) HOUSTON (73-60)
Trend: COL is 11-27 (-8.76 units) in the last 38 road starts by Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+200 at HOU)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NY METS
Letdown after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 12-22 (35.3%) -15.20 units, ROI: -44.7%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-260 vs MIA)
PHILADELPHIA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 16-19 (45.7%) -7.15 units, ROI: -20.4%
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-187 vs ATL)
