The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, July 24, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 245-123 for +49.26 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.4%.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-149 vs SD) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a VERY good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 321-351 but for +90.10 units and a ROI of 13.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+102 at CLE)

Trend: Luis Severino is 13-35 (-19.42 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+104 at HOU)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 133-83 for +38.06 units, and a ROI of 17.6%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%. This is proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-142 vs SEA) 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 113-142 for -32.06 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-126 vs BAL), HOUSTON (-126 vs ATH)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 245-123 for +49.26 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.4%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-149 vs SD)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 98-191 for -39.15 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.5%! This is the double whammy scenario to FADE.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+104 at HOU)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in ’25. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 284-289 for +33.21 units, ROI +5.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+108 at DET), SAN DIEGO (+123 at STL) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in ‘23, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in ’25. It is now 154-115 for +12.14 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Match (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-126 vs BAL), HOUSTON (-126 vs ATH) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and a ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): DETROIT, ST LOUIS, SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their best overall in DIVISIONAL GAMES since the start of 2024, going 670-692 (49.2%) for -27.82 units and a ROI of -2.0%. This is about five full percentage points better for return. If you’re looking for a spot where these majorities are even better, try getting behind them when they back the UNDERDOGS in these divisional contests. In those games, these have gone 95-106 (47.3%) for -0.62 units and a ROI of -0.3%. This advantage is even greater and an indication that bettors do well when going against the grain.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): HOUSTON, SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in ‘25. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in JULY games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and a ROI of -13.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY handle TEAMS THIS MONTH 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for UNDER the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and a ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NONE YET TODAY, CHECK LATER

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 399-305 for +54.94 units and a ROI of 7.8% over the L3 seasons
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-126 vs ATH) 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 365-375 but for +46.97 units and a ROI of 6.3% over the L3 seasons
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+102 at CLE)

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 611-790 but for +38.75 units and a ROI of 2.8% over the L3 seasons
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+102 at CLE)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a VERY good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 321-351 but for +90.10 units and a ROI of 13.4% over the L3 seasons
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+102 at CLE)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 317-277 but for -76.25 units and a ROI of -12.8% over the L3 seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-131 vs TOR), ST LOUIS (-149 vs SD), HOUSTON (-126 vs ATH), LA ANGELS (-142 vs SEA) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 354-297 record for +55.25 units and a ROI of 8.5% over the L3 seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+108 at DET) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 581-650 record but for +54.08 units and a ROI of 4.4% over the L3 seasons
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+102 at CLE) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1855-2358 (44%) for -211.44 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+104 at CLE), SAN DIEGO (+123 at STL), ATHLETICS (+104 at HOU), SEATTLE (+117 at LAA) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the ’23 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 238-248 run (+16.05 units, ROI: 3.3%).
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+104 at HOU)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: HOUSTON -126 (+26 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SD-STL OVER 8 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-DET UNDER 9 (-0.5), ATH-HOU UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) SAN DIEGO (55-47) at (952) ST LOUIS (52-51)
Trend: Under the total is 27-13-2 (+12.70 units) when SD is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-STL (o/u at 8)

Trend: STL is 29-20 (+6.83 units) in HOME games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-149 vs SD) 

(953) BALTIMORE (44-57) at (954) CLEVELAND (51-50)
Trend: Under the total is 33-19-2 (+12.10 units) in Orioles’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-CLE (o/u at 9) 

(955) TORONTO (60-42) at (956) DETROIT (60-43)
Trend: DET is 19-9 (+8.14 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-131 vs TOR) 

(957) ATHLETICS (42-62) at (958) HOUSTON (60-42)
Trend: Luis Severino is 13-35 (-19.42 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+104 at HOU)

(959) SEATTLE (54-48) at (960) LOS ANGELES-AL (49-53)
Trend: Under the total is 16-8-2 (+7.20 units) when SEA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-LAA (o/u at 9)

Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 20-19 (-8.31 units) as a night home favorite in career
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-142 vs SEA)

Series #1: Athletics at Houston, Thu 7/24-Sun 7/27
Trend: The Athletics are 11-28 (28.2%, -9.43 units) in their last 39 games vs. Houston
–   The ROI on this trend is -24.2%.
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+104 at HOU)

Series #14: San Diego at St Louis, Thu 7/24-Sun 7/27
Trend: Home teams are 16-6 (72.7%, +8.84 units) in the last 22 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 40.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-149 vs SD)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

ATHLETICS    
LETDOWN after series vs. TEXAS: 14-20 (41.2%) -7.03 units, ROI: -20.7%     
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+104 at HOU)

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