Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, July 31, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: TB is 8-18 (-11.24 units) against AL teams with a >= 47% win pct with starter Ryan Pepiot since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-111 at NYY)
This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 256-131 for +46.59 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +12%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-180 vs ATL), SEATTLE (-176 vs TEX)
TEXAS letdown in next game after series vs. LA ANGELS: 7-26 (21.2%) -18.44 units, ROI: -55.9%
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+144 at SEA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 143-89 for +41.97 units, and an ROI of 18.1%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-111 at NYY)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 121-154 for -35.64 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13%. Fade these qualifiers almost anytime they come up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (+144 at SEA)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 256-131 for +46.59 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +12%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-180 vs ATL), SEATTLE (-176 vs TEX)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 103-196 for -34.50 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.5%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-110 vs TB)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. That is happening big time, as we are well in the black with a season record of 304-307 for +42.40 units, ROI +6.9%.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+144 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 143-151 for -4.05 units (ROI -1.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 73-71, +0.08 units.
System Match (FADE): 2-games – NY YANKEES (-110 vs. TB)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in ‘25. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and a ROI of -13.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-CIN
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 322-283 but for -79.98 units and a ROI of -13.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-176 vs TEX)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 358-298 record for +58.19 units and an ROI of 8.9% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+144 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 584-659 record but for +47.39 units and an ROI of 3.8% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-111 at NYY)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1869-2373 (44.1%) for -210.50 units and a ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+147 at CIN)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3795-3326 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -512.67 units and a ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-110 vs TB), CINCINNATI (-180 vs ATL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: TEXAS +144 (+17 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CINCINNATI -180 (+17 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEX-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.6), TB-NYY OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ATL-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) TAMPA BAY (54-55) at (902) NEW YORK-AL (59-49)
Trend: TB is 8-18 (-11.24 units) against AL teams with a >= 47% win pct with starter Ryan Pepiot since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-111 at NYY)
(903) ATLANTA (45-62) at (904) CINCINNATI (57-52)
Trend: ATL is the worst team to bet on the road this season (19-36 record, -27.55 units)
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+147 at CIN)
(905) TEXAS (57-52) at (906) SEATTLE (57-52)
Trend: George Kirby is 9-0 (+9.25 units) in the last nine games vs Texas Rangers
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-176 vs TEX)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
TEXAS
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 7-26 (21.2%) -18.44 units, ROI: -55.9%
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+144 at SEA)
