Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, September 18, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 26-14 (+5.99 units) in day games vs teams with a losing record in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-127 at TB)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 402-409 but for +49.84 units and an ROI of 6.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+144 vs MIA), LA ANGELS (+167 at MIL)
* Money line underdog teams with better SM bullpen ratings have gone 1,128-1,249, but for +89.01 units (ROI of 3.7%) since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+105 vs TOR), SAN DIEGO (+119 at NYM), CLEVELAND (+177 at DET), BALTIMORE (+177 vs NYY), CHICAGO CUBS (+119 at CIN)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 64-63 for -15.22 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -12% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CINCINNATI (-144 vs CHC)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 171-219 for -45.75 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.7%. Even though we’ve lost some steam on fading these teams lately, it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Match (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+119 at CIN)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 140-255 for -35.39 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9%!
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+144 vs MIA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 111-55 for -11.38 units (ROI of -6.9%). We have been hovering in the red for over a month now, like usual.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-205 vs LAA)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams finally went negative this past week, 78-37 for -3.54 units for the season. I indicated a couple of weeks ago that September is typically a month where we see more of these plays qualifying daily due to favorite overpricing. So far this month, these qualifiers are 1-5 for -9.62 units!
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-205 vs LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, having a season record of 427-459 for +42.74 units, ROI +4.8%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+105 vs TOR), SAN DIEGO (+119 at NYM), CLEVELAND (+177 at DET), BALTIMORE (+177 vs NYY), CHICAGO CUBS (+119 at CIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, after a strangely strong two-week surge, they are 204-201 for +11.94 units (ROI 2.9%).
System Match (FADE): 2-games – NY YANKEES (-219 at BAL)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 183-246 for -21.51 units, an ROI of -5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+144 vs MIA), LA ANGELS (+167 at MIL)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it has recovered from a slow start to post a current record of 236-182 for +13.92 units (ROI 3.3%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+177 at DET), BALTIMORE (+177 vs NYY), CHICAGO CUBS (+119 at CIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in ALL 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the ’23 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 431-338 for +43.40 units and an ROI of 5.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+119 at CIN), BALTIMORE (+177 vs NYY)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 402-409 but for +49.84 units and an ROI of 6.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+144 vs MIA), LA ANGELS (+167 at MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 658-852 but for +38.72 units and an ROI of 2.6% since the start of the ’22 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+118 at NYM), CLEVELAND (+177 at DET), ATHLETICS (+121 at BOS), LA ANGELS (+167 at MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 355-309 but for -83.08 units and an ROI of -12.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-144 vs CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 152-59 for +19.78 units and an ROI of 9.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-219 vs CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 387-327 record for +56.83 units and an ROI of 8% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+119 at CIN), NY YANKEES (-219 at BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 616-703 record but for +36.56 units and an ROI of 2.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-132 at TB), ATHLETICS (+121 at BOS), LA ANGELS (+167 at MIL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1964-1854 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -250.70 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-205 vs LAA), NY YANKEES (-219 at BAL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1952-2481 (44%) for -231.78 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-132 at TB), LA ANGELS (+167 at MIL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3961-3456 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -511.01 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-144 vs CHC), BOSTON (-147 vs ATH), MILWAUKEE (-205 vs LAA), KANSAS CITY (+104 vs SEA), LA DODGERS (-172 vs SF)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 358-180 (66.5%) for +47.19 units and an ROI of 8.8%!
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-144 vs SD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 171-142 (+7.07 units, ROI: 1.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (+177 at DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 32-66 (-8.90 units, ROI: -9.1%) in their last 98 tries.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+177 at DET)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BALTIMORE +177 (+25 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-TB OVER 7.5 (+0.9), MIA-COL OVER 10 (+0.9), LAA-MIL OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-NYM UNDER 9 (-0.6), ATH-BOS UNDER 9 (-0.5), NYY-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) SAN DIEGO (83-69) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (78-74)
Trend: SD is 39-18 (+10.10 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+1.5 at NYM)
(953) MIAMI (72-80) at (954) COLORADO (41-111)
Trend: MIA is 35-30 (+14.03 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-176 at COL)
(955) CHICAGO-NL (88-64) at (956) CINCINNATI (76-76)
Trend: Colin Rea is good in the -120 to +135 line range (26-12 record, +15.35 units) since 2023
Trend: CIN is 11-21 (-11.09 units) vs divisional foes with starter Hunter Greene in his career
Trends Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+119 at CIN)
(957) SAN FRANCISCO (76-76) at (958) LOS ANGELES-NL (85-67)
Trend: SF is 6-3 (+6.92 units) on the road vs LA Dodgers in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+140 at LAD)
(959) TORONTO (89-63) at (960) TAMPA BAY (74-78)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 26-14 (+5.99 units) in day games vs teams with a losing record in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-127 at TB)
Trend: TB is 18-9 (+9.29 units) within the -130 to +125 line range with starter Shane Baz since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: TB is 10-3 (+7.93 units) versus DIVISIONAL opponents with starter Shane Baz since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+105 vs TOR)
(965) SEATTLE (83-69) at (966) KANSAS CITY (76-76)
Trend: Under the total is 48-28-1 (+17.20 units) in Royals’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-KC (o/u at 9)
(967) NEW YORK-AL (85-67) at (968) BALTIMORE (72-80)
Trend: Under the total is 25-17-3 (+6.30 units) when BAL faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-BAL (o/u at 9)
(969) LOS ANGELES-AL (69-83) at (970) MILWAUKEE (93-59)
Trend: MIL is 28-16 (+13.05 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-205 vs LAA)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
CHICAGO CUBS
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 23-11 (67.6%) +11.61 units, ROI: 34.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+119 at CIN) (*CHC did clinch playoffs yesterday though, so be cautious)
