The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, September 4, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Under the total is 9-1 (+7.80 units) when Paul Skenes is a slight underdog (-108 to +111 line range) since start of ’24 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-PIT (o/u at 7) 

* Since the start of the 2023 season, money line underdog teams with better SM bullpen ratings have gone 1092-1209, but for +86.73 units (ROI of 3.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-131 vs PHI), PITTSBURGH (+101 vs LAD), LA ANGELS (+128 at KC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at MIN), HOUSTON (+119 vs NYY) 

* Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 231-150 in their last 381 tries (+37.47 units, ROI: 9.8%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-163 vs CLE)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 186-121 for +45.13 units, and an ROI of +14.7%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+101 vs LAD) 

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 151-201 for -47.10 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.4%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+133 at TB), LA ANGELS (+128 at KC)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 312-186 for +20.65 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +4.1%. However, this angle has cooled off dramatically over the last few weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-131 vs PHI), PITTSBURGH (+101 vs LAD 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. We gained +2.3 units last week to bring the season record to 391-419 for +40.46 units, ROI +5%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-131 vs PHI), PITTSBURGH (+101 vs LAD), LA ANGELS (+128 at KC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at MIN), HOUSTON (+119 vs NYY) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 164-219 for -15.67 units, an ROI of -4.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-156 vs LAA), MINNESOTA (-157 vs CWS) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 214-167 for +7.47 units (ROI 2%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-163 vs CLE), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at MIN)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up and down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, TAMPA BAY, KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA, NY YANKEES 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 419-333 for +35.66 units and an ROI of 4.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-163 vs CLE)

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 387-400 but for +43.57 units and an ROI of 5.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-156 vs LAA), MINNESOTA (-157 vs CWS) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 648-835 but for +42.24 units and an ROI of 2.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+107 at MIL), LA ANGELS (+128 at KC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at MIN) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 342-373 but for +95.11 units and an ROI of 13.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+128 at KC) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 376-322 record for +50.51 units and an ROI of 7.2% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+133 at TB) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 608-688 record but for +43.41 units and an ROI of 3.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+107 at MIL), LA DODGERS (-123 at PIT)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1937-1835 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -254.58 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-163 vs CLE) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1930-2442 (44.1%) for -213.88 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-123 at PIT) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3917-3419 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -510.27 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-163 vs CLE), MILWAUKEE (-131 vs PHI), HOUSTON (+119 vs NYY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 231-150 in their last 381 tries (+37.47 units, ROI: 9.8%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-163 vs CLE)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: KANSAS CITY -156 (+26 diff)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NYY-HOU UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) PHILADELPHIA (80-59) at (952) MILWAUKEE (86-54)
Trend: PHI is 17-9 (+8.11 units) in line range -115 to +115 with starter Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
Trend: PHI is 15-7 (+4.56 units) vs. NL Central teams with starter Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons

Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+107 at MIL)
Trend: MIL is most profitable team vs LH starters this season (28-14 record, +15.46 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-131 vs PHI) 

(953) LOS ANGELES-NL (78-61) at (954) PITTSBURGH (63-77)
Trend: LAD is just 31-35 (-21.79 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-123 at PIT)

Trend: Under the total is 9-1 (+7.80 units) when Paul Skenes is a slight underdog (-108 to +111 line range) since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-PIT (o/u at 7) 

(955) CLEVELAND (69-69) at (956) TAMPA BAY (70-69)
Trend: TB is 9-19 (-11.40 units) against AL teams with a >= 47% win pct with starter Ryan Pepiot since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-163 vs CLE) 

(957) LOS ANGELES-AL (66-73) at (958) KANSAS CITY (70-69)
Trend: LAA has been solid in night games this season (52-47, +17.16 units)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 5-21 (-15.46 units)
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA ANGELS (+128 at KC)

Trend: Over the total is 16-8-1 (+7.20 units) when LAA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-KC (o/u at 9)

(959) CHICAGO-AL (52-88) at (960) MINNESOTA (62-77)
Trend: MIN is just 46-49 (-21.60 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-157 vs CWS) 

(961) NEW YORK-AL (77-62) at (962) HOUSTON (77-63)
Trend: NYY is 27-43 (-19.49 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-1.5 at HOU)

Series #21: NY Yankees at Houston, Tue 9/2-Thu 9/4
Trend: The YANKEES are on an 11-4 (73.3%, +7.11 units) run versus Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is 47.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-144 at HOU)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, September 5)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR