The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, August 19, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Favorites are on a 19-3 (86.4%, +13.03 units) surge in the Athletics-Minnesota head-to-head series.
— The ROI on this trend is 59.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-144 vs ATH)

Trend: PHI is 18-1 (+16.20 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 winning percentage with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-187 vs SEA)

* Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 568-473 (54.6%) record in the next game when at home. The profit there is +28.26 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+104 vs NYY), CHICAGO CUBS GAME 1 (-156 vs MIL)

* Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5 as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 247-253 run (+19.71 units, ROI: 3.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-221 vs SF), ARIZONA (-121 vs CLE)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 52-48 for -7.84 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -7.8% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): MINNESOTA (-144 vs ATH)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 134-183 for -48.00 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15.1%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up. This angle is 31-51 for -17.45 units since ASB.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-165 vs CWS), LA ANGELS (+109 vs CIN)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 288-167 for +19.39 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +4.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS GAME 1 (-156 vs MIL), DETROIT (-172 vs HOU), PHILADELPHIA (-187 vs SEA), MILWAUKEE GAME 2 (-112 at CHC), SAN DIEGO (-221 vs SF)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 121-214 for -25.61 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -7.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+167 vs NYM), COLORADO (+227 vs LAD)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 91-47 for -14.12 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red and we are again!
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-206 at WSH), SAN DIEGO (-221 vs SF)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 112-37 for +19.16 units, an ROI of 12.9%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-287 at COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. This season’s record stands at 342-357 for +38.36 units, ROI +5.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+113 at MIA), MILWAUKEE GAME 1 (+128 at CHC), PITTSBURGH (+128 vs TOR), TAMPA BAY (+104 vs NYY), ATHLETICS (+118 at MIN), LA ANGELS (+109 vs CIN), CLEVELAND (+100 at AZ)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 156-165 for -4.90 units (ROI -1.5%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 77-73, -0.30 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – BALTIMORE (+118 at BOS), CINCINNATI (-132 at LAA), SAN FRANCISCO (+179 at SD)
3+ games – NY YANKEES (-126 at TB), COLORADO (+227 vs LAD)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In the 2025 season, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 145-199 for -20.92 units, an ROI of -6.1%. Although last year it was about -1% ROI, this year’s loss ROI makes it an angle I want to keep tracking, and we will do so.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (+152 at PHI), ARIZONA (-121 vs CLE)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When studying teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks in 2023, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and after a huge month-long run of +14.88 units, it is now 194-145 for +14.45 units (ROI 4.3%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-112 vs TEX)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): MILWAUKEE GAME 1, MIAMI, KANSAS CITY, CLEVELAND

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in ALL 38 possible games this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: A unique system has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 412-322 for +46.32 units and an ROI of 6.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-138 at TB)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 368-316 record for +48.10 units and an ROI of 7% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-206 at WSH), NY YANKEES (-138 at TB)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game. 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,904-1,806 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -253.08 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+167 vs NYM), DETROIT (-172 vs HOU), PHILADELPHIA (-187 vs SEA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at ATL), ATLANTA (-165 vs CWS)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proved to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,905-2,413 (44.1%) for -212.77 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+141 at DET), TORONTO (-150 at PIT)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,858-3,380 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -517.54 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+167 vs NYM), DETROIT (-172 vs HOU), PITTSBURGH (+123 vs TOR), PHILADELPHIA (-187 vs SEA), ATLANTA (-176 vs CWS), MINNESOTA (-144 vs ATH)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 568-473 (54.6%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.26 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+104 vs NYY), CHICAGO CUBS GAME 1 (-156 vs MIL)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 344-174 (66.4%) for +43.81 units and an ROI of 8.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-172 vs HOU), PHILADELPHIA (-187 vs SEA)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 316-280 (53%) for +21.82 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-165 vs CWS)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 247-253 run (+19.71 units, ROI: 3.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-221 vs SF), ARIZONA (-121 vs CLE)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SEATTLE +152 (+15 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI -132 (+27 diff), NY YANKEES -126 (+25), MINNESOTA -144 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-PIT OVER 7.5 (+0.8), BAL-BOS OVER 9 (+0.6), NYY-TB OVER 8 (+0.6), LAD-COL OVER 12 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-DET UNDER 7 (-0.7), SF-SD UNDER 8 (-0.6), TEX-KC UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), ATH-MIN UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(953) NEW YORK-NL (66-58) at (954) WASHINGTON (50-74)
Trend: NYM is 18-3 (+12.48 units) as a -130 favorite or higher with starter David Peterson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-206 at WSH)

Trend: WSH is 6-19 (-11.32 units) against NL teams with a winning percentage between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+167 vs. NYM)

(955) MILWAUKEE (79-45) at (956) CHICAGO-NL (70-54)  (DH Game #1)
Trend: MIL is 25-12 (+14.74 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE GAME 1 (+128 at CHC)

(957) LOS ANGELES-NL (71-54) at (958) COLORADO (36-89)
Trend: LAD is 28-30 (-15.74 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-287 at COL)

Trend: Austin Gomber not good when overmatched on paper, just 7-22 (-7.39 units) as a large underdog of +175 or more
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+227 vs. LAD)

(959) SAN FRANCISCO (61-64) at (960) SAN DIEGO (69-56)
Trend: Nick Pivetta is 11-1 in his last 12 games as a home favorite of -195 or higher
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-221 vs. SF)

(961) HOUSTON (69-56) at (962) DETROIT (74-53)
Trend: Tarik Skubal is 20-4 (+12.97 units) in his last 24 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-172 vs. HOU)

(963) BALTIMORE (58-67) at (964) BOSTON (68-58)
Trend: Under the total is 39-23-3 (+13.85 units) in Orioles road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-BOS (o/u at 9)

Trend: Walker Buehler is just 9-10 (-4.12 units) as a short favorite (in line range -120 to -145) since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-144 vs. BAL)

(965) NEW YORK-AL (67-57) at (966) TAMPA BAY (61-64)
Trend: TB is 10-2 (+8.93 units) versus divisional opponents with starter Shane Baz since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: TB is 17-7 (+10.32 units) within the -130 to +125 line range with starter Shane Baz since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+104 vs. NYY)

(967) TEXAS (62-64) at (968) KANSAS CITY (64-61)
Trend: Under the total is 38-25 (+10.50 units) when KC is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-KC (o/u at 8.5)

(971) TORONTO (73-53) at (972) PITTSBURGH (53-73)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 36-17 (+12.32 units) on the road vs. NL teams in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-150 at PIT)

(973) SEATTLE (68-58) at (974) PHILADELPHIA (72-53)
Trend: PHI is 18-1 (+16.20 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 winning percentage with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: PHI is 22-5 (+12.53 units) in the favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-187 vs. SEA)

(975) CHICAGO-AL (45-80) at (976) ATLANTA (56-69)
Trend: CWS is 19-44 (-14.49 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+144 at ATL)

(977) CINCINNATI (66-60) at (978) LOS ANGELES-AL (60-65)
Trend: Under the total is 46-22-2 (+21.80 units) when CIN is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-LAA (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 5-19 (-13.46 units)
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+112 vs. CIN)

(979) CLEVELAND (64-60) at (980) ARIZONA (60-66)
Trend: CLE is 28-9 (+18.48 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with Tanner Bibee since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+100 at AZ)

Trend: UNDER the total is 33-20-4 (+11.00 units) when CLE is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-AZ (o/u at 8.5)

Top head-to-head series trend

Series #14: Athletics at Minnesota, Tue 8/19-Thu 8/21
Trend: Favorites are on a 19-3 (86.4%, +13.03 units) surge in the Athletics-Minnesota head-to-head series.
— The ROI on this trend is 59.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-144 vs. ATH)

Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

ATHLETICS
LETDOWN after series vs. LA ANGELS: 13-20 (39.4%) -10.57 units, ROI: -32%
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+118 at MIN)

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