The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, August 26, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Trend: Under the total is 12-3-2 (+8.55 units) when San Diego is a road underdog with Dylan Cease since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-SEA (o/u at 8)

Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 21-4 (84%, +15.84 units) versus the Chicago White Sox
— The ROI on this trend is 63.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-116 at CWS)

Trend: Justin Verlander is 2-10 (-12.40 units) at home against National League teams with a winning record in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+117 vs. CHC)

* Since the start of the 2023 season, money line underdog teams with better SM bullpen ratings have gone 1069-1178, but for +87.76 units (ROI of 3.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-102 at CLE), MIAMI (+108 vs. ATL), PITTSBURGH (+108 at STL), SAN DIEGO (-106 at SEA), ATHLETICS (+104 vs. DET)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In 2025, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 183-113 for +51.33 units, and an ROI of +17.3%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This has continually proven to be a good foundational angle to follow, as the prices are typically not high, and since the ASB, it is 56-43 for +16.29 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+108 at STL), LA ANGELS (-115 at TEX)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 139-195 for -54.73 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -16.4%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become as reliable as almost anything else in this report. This angle is 36-63 for -24.20 units since the All-Star break.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+108 vs. ATL), ATHLETICS (+104 vs. DET)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 298-177 for +21.11 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-143 at SF)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 122-224 for -31.66 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.2%.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+275 at HOU)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
 A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished with a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 113-37 for +19.89 units, an ROI of +13.3%.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-357 vs. COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. We gained +3.89 units last week to bring the season record to 368-388 for +41.49 units, ROI +5.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-102 at CLE), MIAMI (+108 vs. ATL), PITTSBURGH (+108 at STL), SAN DIEGO (-106 at SEA), ATHLETICS (+104 vs. DET)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating looking to extend a winning streak is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, the teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 168-180 for -6.78 units (ROI -1.9%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 79-82, -7.46 units for the year.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – SEATTLE (-115 vs. SD), SAN FRANCISCO (+117 vs. CHC)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In 2025, teams with the worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games have gone just 151-205 for -19.89 units, an ROI of -5.2%. After a couple of rough weeks, this is now back at “average performing level” so we will continue to monitor it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-120 vs. TB), WASHINGTON (+147 at NYY), MINNESOTA (+145 at TOR), COLORADO (+275 at HOU)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When studying 2023 teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and after a nice month-long run of +18.06 units, it is now 201-154 for +11.48 units (ROI 3.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-102 at CLE), CHICAGO CUBS (-143 at SF)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): TEXAS, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2 1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, HOUSTON, SEATTLE

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 415-328 for +40.65 units and an ROI of 5.5% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-143 at SF)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 417-400 (51%) for +22.95 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.8%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-120 vs. TB)

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1917-1818 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -255.84 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-102 at CLE), NY YANKEES (-180 vs. WSH), TORONTO (-164 vs. MIN), NY METS (-106 vs. PHI), SEATTLE (-115 vs. SD)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,917-2,429 (44.1%) for -216.64 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+275 at HOU), ATLANTA (-132 at MIA), KANSAS CITY (-116 at CWS), CINCINNATI (+151 at LAD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3886-3394 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -507.38 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-180 vs. WSH), TORONTO (-164 vs. MIN), NY METS (-106 vs. PHI), MILWAUKEE (-158 vs. AZ), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-104 vs. KC), ST LOUIS (-131 vs. PIT), SEATTLE (-115 vs. SD), ATHLETICS (+104 vs. DET), LA DODGERS (-186 vs. CIN)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 570-477 (54.4%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26 units, for an ROI of 2.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-120 vs. TB), TEXAS (-105 vs. LAA), HOUSTON (-357 vs. COL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: COLORADO +275 (+40 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -120 (+17), PHILADELPHIA -115 (+17), SEATTLE -115 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.9), PHI-NYM OVER 8 (+0.7), KC-CWS OVER 8.5 (+0.6), MIN-TOR OVER 8.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: DET-ATH UNDER 11 (-1.2)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) ATLANTA (59-72) at (902) MIAMI (62-69)
Trend: ATL is 47-50 (-32.36 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend: MIA is 45-48 (+16.77 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+108 vs. ATL)

(903) PHILADELPHIA (76-55) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (70-61)
Trend: Under the total is 39-22-6 (+14.90 units) in Phillies road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYM (o/u at 8)

(905) ARIZONA (64-68) at (906) MILWAUKEE (82-50)
Trend: MIL is 44-22 (+15.05 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-156 vs. AZ)

(907) PITTSBURGH (57-75) at (908) ST LOUIS (65-67)
Trend: PIT is 18-45 (-22.65 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+108 at STL)

Trend: STL is 5-7 (-4.26 units) as a home favorite with starter Andre Pallante since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-131 vs. PIT)

(909) CHICAGO-NL (76-55) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (63-68)
Trend: Justin Verlander is 2-10 (-12.40 units) at home against NL teams with a winning record in the last six seasons
Trend: SF is 13-23 (-16.47 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trends Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+117 vs. CHC)

(911) CINCINNATI (68-64) at (912) LOS ANGELES-NL (75-57)
Trend: Under the total is 48-26-6 (+19.40 units) in Reds night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-LAD (o/u at 9)

Trend: CIN is 2-8 (-5.19 units) as a road underdog vs. NL opponents with starter Nick Martinez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+151 at LAD)

(913) BOSTON (72-60) at (914) BALTIMORE (60-71)
Trend: BAL is 5-10 (-6.51 units) in home divisional games with starter Kyle Bradish
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-108 vs. BOS)

Trend: Under the total is 37-17-4 (+18.30 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-BAL (o/u at 8.5)

(915) TAMPA BAY (64-67) at (916) CLEVELAND (64-66)
Trend: TB is 17-8 (+9.32 units) within the -130 to +125 line range with starter Shane Baz since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-102 at CLE)

(917) MINNESOTA (59-72) at (918) TORONTO (77-55)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 19-9 (+4.96 units) vs. AL Central opponents in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-178 vs. MIN)

(919) KANSAS CITY (67-65) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (48-83)
Trend: Martin Perez is 8-2 (+4.70 units) in his last 10 starts vs. KC Royals
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-104 vs. KC)

(921) LOS ANGELES-AL (62-69) at (922) TEXAS (66-67)
Trend: Under the total is 43-23-1 (+17.70 units) in Rangers home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-TEX (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Patrick Corbin is 8-13 (-4.71 units) as a night underdog between line range of -105 to +120 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-105 vs. LAA)

(923) DETROIT (78-55) at (924) ATHLETICS (61-72)
Trend: Charlie Morton is 5-14 (-8.65 units) within -130 to +175 line range in night games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-127 at ATH)

(929) SAN DIEGO (74-58) at (930) SEATTLE (71-61)
Trend: Under the total is 12-3-2 (+8.55 units) when SD is a road underdog with starter Dylan Cease since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-SEA (o/u at 8)

Trend: SEA is 31-53 (-21.48 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+1.5 vs. SD)

Series #8: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox, Mon 8/25-Wed 8/27
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 21-4 (84%, +15.84 units) versus the Chicago White Sox
— The ROI on this trend is 63.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-116 at CWS)

Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Thursday, August 28)

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