The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, August 5, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: CHC is 17-2 (+14.11 units) as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-183 vs. CIN)

Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proved to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 341-171 (66.6%) for +46.40 units and an ROI of 9.1%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-143 vs. BAL)

Trend: Under the total is 35-19-1 (+14.10 units) in Rangers home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-TEX (o/u at 8.5)

Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 220-146 in their last 366 tries (+32.40 units, ROI: 8.9%).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-250 vs. KC)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 167-113 for +45.24 units and an ROI of 16.2%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+118 at PHI), TEXAS (-129 vs. NYY)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a negative SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 46-42 for -5.83 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -6.6% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-136 vs. ATH), SAN FRANCISCO (-137 at PIT)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 123-162 for -42.43 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.9%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-109 vs. HOU), CLEVELAND (+134 at NYM), ST LOUIS (+152 at LAD)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 264-141 for +40.44 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +10%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-250 vs. KC), MILWAUKEE (-150 at ATL), TEXAS (-129 vs. NYY), CHICAGO CUBS (-187 vs. CIN), SEATTLE (-258 vs. CWS)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 107-201 for -33.3 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.8%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+197 vs. TOR), ATLANTA (+123 vs. MIL), PHILADELPHIA (-143 vs. BAL)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an uncustomary good start, 80-38 for -5.83 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red, and we finally are!
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-250 vs. KC)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 104-33 for +20.67 units, an ROI of 15.1%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-245 at COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. That is happening big time, as we are rolling lately and the season the record stands at 316-316 for +48.81 units, ROI +7.7%. This coming after a breakout 58-47, +28.43-unit surge since the All-Star break.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-109 vs. HOU), PITTSBURGH (+113 vs. SF), BALTIMORE (+118 at PHI), ATHLETICS (+112 at WSH), CLEVELAND (+134 at NYM), TAMPA BAY (+104 at LAA)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 147-157 for -5.96 units (ROI -2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 73-42, -1.31 units after a 0-5, -5.39 unit performance this past week.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – PHILADELPHIA (-143 vs. BAL), LA ANGELS (-126 vs. TB)
3 games – ARIZONA (+108 vs. SD)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks in 2023, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and after a huge 3 ½-week run of +17.02 units, it is now 175-131 for +16.59 units (ROI 5.4%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-250 vs. KC), MILWAUKEE (-150 at ATL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website before opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager from the beginning of the 2023 season through the 2025 All-Star break, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): ATHLETICS, TEXAS, LA ANGELS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2 1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proved to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 UNITS and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, ATHLETICS, PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, TORONTO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-AZ

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 406-393 (50.8%) for +17.58 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.2%.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+197 vs. TOR)

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,884-1,787 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -249.47 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-143 vs. BAL), TORONTO (-247 at COL)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over the last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,879-2,383 (44.1%) for -208.51 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+104 at LAA), SAN DIEGO (-132 at AZ)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,812-3,337 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -509.17 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-144 vs. MIN), PITTSBURGH (+114 vs. SF), PHILADELPHIA (-143 vs. BAL), NY METS (-164 vs. CLE), BOSTON (-250 vs. KC), TEXAS (-129 vs. NYY), LA ANGELS (-126 vs. TB), ARIZONA (+108 vs. SD), SEATTLE (-258 vs. CWS)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 341-171 (66.6%) for +46.40 units and an ROI of 9.1%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-143 vs. BAL)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 313-276 (53.2%) for +23.27 units and an ROI of 4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-136 vs. ATH), COLORADO (+197 vs. TOR)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 220-146 in their last 366 tries (+32.40 units, ROI: 8.9%).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-250 vs. KC)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +206 (+38 diff), KANSAS CITY +200 (+29), ARIZONA +108 (+24), COLORADO +192 (+19)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -150 (+27 diff), NY METS -164 (+27), DETROIT -144 (+23)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-DET OVER 8 (+0.5), MIL-ATL OVER 8 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-MIA UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), CLE-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), BAL-PHI UNDER 10 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) SAN FRANCISCO (56-57) at (952) PITTSBURGH (49-64)
Trend: PIT is 35-22 (+10.92 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+1.5 vs. SF)

(953) MILWAUKEE (68-44) at (954) ATLANTA (47-64)
Trend: Under the total is 9-1 (+8.00 units) in the last 10 road games versus NL teams within line range of -300 to +112 with starter Freddy Peralta since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-ATL (o/u at 8)

Trend: MIL is 22-11 (+12.74 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-150 at ATL)

Trend: ATL is not good as a ML underdog this season (5-19, -13.28 units)
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+123 vs. MIL)

(955) CINCINNATI (59-54) at (956) CHICAGO-NL (65-47)
Trend: CHC is 17-2 (+14.11 units) as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: CHC is 26-5 (+18.86 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since start of 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-183 vs. CIN)

(957) SAN DIEGO (62-51) at (958) ARIZONA (54-59)
Trend: SD is 11-18 (-10.13 units) in the -102 to -131 line range in night games with starter Yu Darvish in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-131 at SD)

(961) MINNESOTA (52-60) at (962) DETROIT (66-48)
Trend: MIN is 11-20 (-6.42 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+118 at DET)

(965) NEW YORK-AL (60-53) at (966) TEXAS (59-55)
Trend: NYY is 3-8 (-4.31 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+106 at TEX)

Trend: Under the total is 35-19-1 (+14.10 units) in Rangers home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-TEX (o/u at 8.5)

(967) CHICAGO-AL (42-70) at (968) SEATTLE (60-53)
Trend: SEA is 14-4 (+8.63 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-258 vs. CWS)

(969) TAMPA BAY (55-59) at (970) LOS ANGELES-AL (55-58)
Trend: Under the total is 9-1-1 (+7.80 units) when TB is a plus-money night underdog with starter Ryan Pepiot since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-LAA (o/u at 8)

Trend: TB is 8-19 (-12.44 units) against AL teams with a >= 47% win pct with starter Ryan Pepiot since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+104 at LAA)

Trend: LAA is 0-8 (-11.11 units) with starter Jose Soriano in home games against non-divisional opponents with a losing record since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-126 vs. TB)

(971) HOUSTON (63-50) at (972) MIAMI (55-56)
Trend: MIA is 54-28 (+19.00 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 vs. HOU)

(973) ATHLETICS (49-65) at (974) WASHINGTON (44-67)
Trend: Luis Severino is 28-12 (+14.00 units) against teams with a losing record in the last three seasons
Trend: Luis Severino is 14-35 (-18.19 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ATHLETICS (+112 at WSH)

Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 6-14 (-11.65 units) in home games vs. teams with losing records in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-136 vs. ATH)

(975) BALTIMORE (51-62) at (976) PHILADELPHIA (64-48)
Trend: Under the total is 28-15-4 (+11.50 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-PHI (o/u at 10)

Trend: Taijuan Walker is 21-8 (+7.59 units) as a home favorite of -130 or higher in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-143 vs. BAL)

(977) CLEVELAND (57-55) at (978) NEW YORK-NL (63-50)
Trend: NYM is 38-19 (+7.90 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-164 vs. CLE)

(979) TORONTO (66-48) at (980) COLORADO (30-82)
Trend: TOR is 43-23 (+19.48 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-247 at COL)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Monday, August 11)

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