The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, September 16, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 40-21 (+20.58 units, ROI: 33.7%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-138 at KC)

Trend: Under the total is 35-18-2 (+15.20 units) when San Diego is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-NYM (o/u at 8)

* Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 382-257 for +77.59 units, and an ROI of 12.1%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+133 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (-112 vs. TOR), TEXAS (-119 at HOU)

Trend: Washington is 6-22 (-14.32 units) against NL teams with a winning percentage between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON GAME 1 (+128 vs. ATL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 193-130 for +42.59 units, and an ROI of +13.2%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+133 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (-112 vs. TOR), TEXAS (-119 at HOU)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a negative SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 64-62 for -13.99 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -11.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen hast to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CINCINNATI (-122 at STL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 169-217 for -45.97 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.9%. Even though we’ve lost some steam on fading these teams lately, it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+118 at DET), HOUSTON (-102 vs. TEX)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 330-201 for +17.89 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +3.4%. This angle brought us another +2.68 units last week.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+103 at NYM), SEATTLE (-138 at KC), MILWAUKEE (-272 vs. LAA), TEXAS (-119 at HOU)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 140-251 for -31.39 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON GAME 1 (+128 vs. ATL), COLORADO (+122 vs. MIA)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the winning percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 109-55 for -13.38 units (ROI of -8.2%). We have been hovering in the red for over a month now, like usual.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA GAME 2 (-192 at WSH), MILWAUKEE (-272 vs. LAA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. We gained +2.3 units last week to bring the season record to 419-454 for +38.75 units, ROI +4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at PIT), CLEVELAND (+118 at DET), ATHLETICS (+133 at BOS), SAN DIEGO (+103 at NYM), BALTIMORE (-110 at CWS), ST LOUIS (+101 vs. CIN), SAN FRANCISCO (+108 at AZ)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. This year, after a strangely strong two-week surge, they are 203-199 for +13.03 units (ROI 3.2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so this year’s results are eye-opening, now 98-93, +0.99 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – TORONTO (-108 at TB), ARIZONA (-132 vs. SF)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
This season, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 183-239 for -14.42 units, an ROI of -3.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-110 vs. BAL), LA ANGELS (+216 at MIL)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and it has recovered from a slow start to post a current record of 229-180 for +8.18 units (ROI 2.0%).  We gained +3.03 units here over the last seven days.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+118 at DET), ATHLETICS (+133 at BOS), SEATTLE (-138 at KC)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): CHICAGO CUBS, SAN DIEGO, TEXAS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2 1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: A unique system has developed since the start of last season, when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
— Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-COL, SF-AZ

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 428-338 for +39.89 units and an ROI of 5.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+118 at DET), ATHLETICS (+133 at BOS), SEATTLE (-138 at KC)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 355-308 but for -81.59 units and an ROI of -12.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-143 vs. CLE)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 385-326 record for +55.54 units and an ROI of 7.8% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+133 at BOS), SAN DIEGO (+103 at NYM), SEATTLE (-138 at KC)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 427-407 (51.2%) for +24.09 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.9%.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON GAME 1 (+123 vs. ATL)

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1960-1848 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -248.47 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA GAME 1 (-150 at WSH), SAN DIEGO (+103 at NYM), SEATTLE (-138 at KC), CINCINNATI (-122 at STL), KANSAS CITY (+114 vs. SEA)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1948-2477 (44%) for -231.78 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+216 at MIL), MIAMI (-149 at COL), TORONTO (-108 at TB), NY YANKEES (-156 at MIN), SAN FRANCISCO (+108 at AZ)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,952-3,445 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -507.38 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-163 vs. ATH), NY METS (-125 vs. SD), KANSAS CITY (+114 vs. SEA), MINNESOTA (+128 vs. NYY), ST LOUIS (+101 vs. CIN), HOUSTON (-102 vs. TEX), ARIZONA (-132 vs. SF), LA DODGERS (-137 vs. PHI), COLORADO (+122 vs. MIA)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances in which they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 325-289 (52.9%) for +22.70 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON GAME 1 (+123 vs. ATL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 257-267 run (+16.97 units, ROI: 3.3%).
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-110 vs. BAL)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 232-152 in their last 384 tries (+35.67 units, ROI: 9.3%).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-138 at KC)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 127-130 (-54.69 units, ROI: -21.3%) in the next game since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-108 at TB)

Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine or more games in a row, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 40-21 (+20.58 units, ROI: 33.7%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-138 at KC)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS +216 (+44 diff), WASHINGTON GAME 2 +156 (+18)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NY YANKEES -156 (+17 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATL-WSH GAME 2 OVER 7 (+0.7), TEX-HOU OVER 7.5 (+0.7), PHI-LAD OVER 7.5 (+0.7), MIA-COL OVER 10 (+0.6), BAL-CWS OVER 8 (+0.5), NYY-MIN OVER 9 (+0.5)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CHC-PIT UNDER 7 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) ATLANTA (67-83) at (952) WASHINGTON (62-88)  (DH Game 1)
Trend: WSH is 6-22 (-14.32 units) against NL teams with a winning percentage between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON GAME 1 (+128 vs. ATL)

(953) CHICAGO-NL (86-64) at (954) PITTSBURGH (65-86)
Trend: PIT is 13-2 (+10.55 units) as a small favorite/pick-’em (-136 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (*if they fall into this line range, -137 currently*)

(955) ATLANTA (67-83) at (956) WASHINGTON (62-88)  (DH Game 2)
Trend: ATL is 52-55 (-33.89 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA GAME 2 (-192 at WSH)

Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 6-15 (-12.97 units) in home games vs. teams with losing records in the last three seasons
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 10-23 (-12.08 units) vs. NL East opponents in his career
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON GAME 2 (+156 vs. ATL)

(957) SAN DIEGO (82-68) at (958) NEW YORK-NL (77-73)
Trend: Under the total is 35-18-2 (+15.20 units) when SD is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-NYM (o/u at 8)

(959) CINCINNATI (75-75) at (960) ST LOUIS (73-78)
Trend: CIN is 7-3 (+5.45 units) on the road in divisional matchups with starter Andrew Abbott since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-122 at STL)

(961) MIAMI (70-80) at (962) COLORADO (41-109)
Trend: MIA is 3-10 (-9.00 units) against NL Central/West opponents with starter Eury Perez since 2023
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-149 at COL)

(965) PHILADELPHIA (90-61) at (966) LOS ANGELES-NL (84-66)
Trend: PHI is 16-23 (-11.81 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+113 at LAD)

(967) CLEVELAND (78-71) at (968) DETROIT (85-65)
Trend: DET is 23-14 (+6.69 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-143 vs. CLE)

(971) TORONTO (88-62) at (972) TAMPA BAY (73-77)
Trend: TOR is 56-30 (+23.18 units) in night games this season
Trend: TB is 4-13 (-9.79 units) versus divisional opponents with starter Ryan Pepiot since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-108 at TB)

(973) SEATTLE (82-68) at (974) KANSAS CITY (75-75)
Trend: Over the total is 62-40-4 (+18.00 units) when SEA faces right-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-KC (o/u at 8.5)

(975) BALTIMORE (70-80) at (976) CHICAGO-AL (57-94)
Trend: Under the total is 44-29-3 (+12.10 units) in Orioles road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-CWS (o/u at 8)

(979) TEXAS (79-72) at (980) HOUSTON (82-69)
Trend: Under the total is 23-14-5 (+7.60 units) when HOU is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-HOU (o/u at 7.5)

(981) LOS ANGELES-AL (69-81) at (982) MILWAUKEE (91-59)
Trend: Over the total is 9-3-1 (+5.79 units) when MIL is a -180 favorite or higher with starter Freddy Peralta since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-MIL (o/u at 8)

Trend: MIL is 13-1 (+11.74 units) as a favorite vs. AL teams with starter Freddy Peralta since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: MIL is 8-15 (-16.88 units) in September/October with starter Freddy Peralta in the last four seasons
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MILWAUKEE (-272 vs. LAA)

Series #23: Texas at Houston, Mon 9/15-Wed 9/17
Trend: Road teams are on a 34-20 (63%, +22.41 units) surge in the in-state AL West rivalry between Houston and Texas.
— The ROI on this trend is 41.5%.
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-119 at HOU)

Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

COLORADO
Momentum after series vs. SAN DIEGO: 18-16 (52.9%) +7.45 units, ROI: 21.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+122 vs. MIA)

SAN DIEGO
Momentum after series vs. COLORADO: 23-11 (67.6%) +13.22 units, ROI: 38.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+103 at NYM)

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