The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, September 2, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Luis Severino is 29-12 (+15.09 units) against teams with a losing record in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-108 at STL)

* Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 576-478 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.49 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-175 vs. BAL)

* Since the start of the 2023 season, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 605-669 for -80.47 units, an ROI of 6.3%.
System Match (FADE): 2 games – CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+123 at MIN)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 202-149 for +19.97 units and an ROI of 5.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-119 at HOU)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 185-118 for +47.29 units and an ROI of +15.6%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-112 vs. TOR), TAMPA BAY (-105 vs. SEA), ATHLETICS (-108 at STL)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 57-54 for -12.08 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -10.9% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): SEATTLE (-115 at TB)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 148-200 for -49.44 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.2%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+138 vs. LAD), KANSAS CITY (-158 vs. LAA)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 307-184 for +18.45 units when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +3.8%. However, this angle has cooled off dramatically over the last few weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-169 at PIT), BOSTON (-268 vs. CLE), TAMPA BAY (-105 vs. SEA), CHICAGO CUBS (-181 vs. ATL), HOUSTON (-102 vs. NYY), SAN FRANCISCO (-225 at COL)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 125-235 for -36.28 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.1%. We pushed over the -10% mark after a 2-11 for -5.62 units last week.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-115 vs. MIA), COLORADO (+182 vs. SF)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 102-49 for -7.78 units. We have been hovering the red for about a month now, like usual.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-268 vs. CLE)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished with a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 117-39 for +17.71 units, an ROI of +11.4%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-225 at COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. We gained +2.3 units last week to bring the season record to 383-411 for +39.20 units, ROI +4.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+138 vs. LAD), DETROIT (+108 vs. NYM), MIAMI (-105 at WSH), TAMPA BAY (-105 vs. SEA), ATHLETICS (-108 at STL), HOUSTON (-102 vs. NYY), TEXAS (-104 at AZ)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that are looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, the teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. This year, they are 177-184 for -1.87 units (ROI -0.5%).
System Match (FADE): 2 games – CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+123 at MIN)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When studying teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks in 2023, I found that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 210-165 for +5.57 units (ROI 1.2%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-105 vs. SEA), TEXAS (-104 at AZ)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website before opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): MIAMI, ATHLETICS, ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2 1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 UNITS and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, TORONTO, ATHLETICS, SAN DIEGO, TEXAS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
Majority handle bettors in SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Since the beginning of the 2024 season, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-KC

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 202-149 for +19.97 units and an ROI of 5.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-119 at HOU)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 124-162 for -35.69 units and an ROI of -12.5% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-102 vs. NYY)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 421-402 (51.2%) for +24.93 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.0%.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-113 vs. ATH)

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game , they are posting a winning record at 1932-1830 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -254.47 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-133 at DET), ATHLETICS (-108 at STL), TAMPA BAY (-105 vs. SEA)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1929-2438 (44.2%) for -210.13 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-105 at WSH), NY YANKEES (-119 at HOU), SEATTLE (-115 at TB)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,907-3,413 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -513.89 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+110 vs. NYM), CINCINNATI (-112 vs. TOR), BOSTON (-268 vs. CLE), HOUSTON (-102 vs. NYY), MINNESOTA (-151 vs. CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (-181 vs. ATL), TAMPA BAY (-105 vs. SEA), ARIZONA (-120 vs. TEX)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 576-478 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.49 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-175 vs. BAL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t typically score a lot of runs. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 168-137 (+8.32 units, ROI: 2.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-102 at AZ)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND +213 (+46 diff), DETROIT +108 (+26)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -169 (+35 diff), MINNESOTA -151 (+17)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: TOR-CIN OVER 8.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: TEX-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) LOS ANGELES-NL (78-59) at (952) PITTSBURGH (61-77)
Trend: LAD is just 31-33 (-18.35 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-169 at PIT)

(953) MIAMI (65-73) at (954) WASHINGTON (54-83)
Trend: MIA is the most profitable team in MLB as ML underdog this season (48-51 record, +18.87 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-105 at NYM)

(955) ATLANTA (62-76) at (956) CHICAGO-NL (79-59)
Trend: CHC is 27-8 (+15.61 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: CHC is 18-5 (+10.48 units) as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-181 vs. ATL)

(957) SAN FRANCISCO (69-69) at (958) COLORADO (39-99)
Trend: Under the total is 55-35-2 (+16.50 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-COL (o/u at 10.5)

Trend: SF is 18-8 (+3.07 units) as a night favorite of -160 or higher with starter Logan Webb in last six seasons
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-225 at COL)

(959) CLEVELAND (68-68) at (960) BOSTON (77-62)
Trend: Under the total is 36-24-5 (+9.65 units) when CLE is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-BOS (o/u at 7.5)

(963) LOS ANGELES-AL (64-73) at (964) KANSAS CITY (70-67)
Trend: LAA has been solid in night games this season (50-47, +14.43 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+129 at KC)

(965) CHICAGO-AL (50-88) at (966) MINNESOTA (62-75)
Trend: MIN is 17-7 (+9.13 units) against teams with a <= 0.500 win pct with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-151 vs. CWS)

(967) NEW YORK-AL (76-61) at (968) HOUSTON (76-62)
Trend: HOU is 18-9 (+5.43 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend: HOU is 9-4 (+4.89 units) as a slight underdog (between -108 to +105) with starter Framber Valdez in last six seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-102 vs. NYY)

(969) NEW YORK-NL (74-64) at (970) DETROIT (80-59)
Trend: NYM is 29-37 (-14.70 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-131 at DET)

(971) TORONTO (79-59) at (972) CINCINNATI (70-68)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is 20-14 (+7.88 units) vs. teams with a winning record in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-112 vs. TOR)

(973) ATHLETICS (64-75) at (974) ST LOUIS (68-71)
Trend: Luis Severino is 29-12 (+15.09 units) against teams with a losing record in the last 3+ seasons
Trend: STL is 2-7 (-6.77 units) vs. AL West teams with starter Miles Mikolas in the last six seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-108 at STL)

(975) BALTIMORE (62-76) at (976) SAN DIEGO (76-62)
Trend: Under the total is 41-25-3 (+13.60 units) in Orioles road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-SD (o/u at 8)

(977) TEXAS (72-67) at (978) ARIZONA (68-71)
Trend: TEX is 17-34 (-14.76 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-104 at AZ)

Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Mon 9/1-Wed 9/3
Trend: Colorado is 9-32 (22%, -18.07 units) in their last 41 games vs. San Francisco
— The ROI on this trend is -44.1%
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+182 vs. SF)

Series #21: NY Yankees at Houston, Tue 9/2-Thu 9/4
Trend: The Yankees are on a 10-3 (76.9%, +7.58 units) run versus Houston.
— The ROI on this trend is 58.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-119 at HOU)

Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, September 5)

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