The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, September 23, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Philadelphia is 21-1 (+19.20 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season (including 12-0 (+12.00 units) versus teams with a losing record)
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-240 vs. MIA)

Trend: Underdogs are on a 26-11 (70.3%, +22.25 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
— The ROI on this trend is 60.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+134 at TOR)

* NY METS letdown in next game after series vs. WSH: 12-21 (36.4%) -18.28 units, ROI: -55.4%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-111 at CHC)

* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 176-221 for -42.51 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-137 vs. MIN), ST LOUIS (+165 at SF)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
— In 2025, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 199-133 for +45.30 units, and an ROI of +13.6%! In the 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow because the prices typically aren’t that high.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+186 at NYY), SAN DIEGO (-114 vs. MIL), ATHLETICS (-111 vs. HOU)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 65-67 for -20.58 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -15.6% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-161 at CLE)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 176-221 for -42.51 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.7%. Even though we’ve lost some steam on fading these teams lately, it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-137 vs. MIN), ST LOUIS (+165 at SF)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 343-204 for +27.65 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+132 vs. DET), KANSAS CITY (-163 at LAA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 144-257 for -30.54 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -7.6%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+158 at ATL), MINNESOTA (+112 at TEX), COLORADO (+227 at SEA)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the winning percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 116-59 for -16.60 units (ROI of -9.5%). We have been hovering in the red for over a month now, like usual.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-194 vs. WSH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished with a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. In 2025, these teams have had a very strong season, 126-43 for +18 units, an ROI of +10.7%. In the last couple of weeks, they were 6-1 for +3.26 units.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-288 vs. COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, having a season record of 441-471 for +47.00 units, ROI +5.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+132 vs. DET), PITTSBURGH (+134 at CIN), MIAMI (+193 at PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+186 at NYY), BOSTON (+134 at TOR), CHICAGO CUBS (-110 vs. NYM), ST LOUIS (+165 at SF)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
Fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, the teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, after a strangely strong two-week surge, they are 206-203 for +11.94 units (ROI 2.9%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so this year’s results are eye-opening, now 105-97, +3.82 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – NY YANKEES (-232 vs. CWS), ARIZONA (+133 vs. LAD)
3+ games – CINCINNATI (-164 vs. PIT)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In 2025, the teams with the worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 190-256 for -22.94 units, an ROI of -5.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-161 at CLE), HOUSTON (-110 at ATH)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks in 2023, those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and it has recovered from a slow start to post a current record of 246-187 for +18.09 units (ROI 4.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+193 at PHI), ATLANTA (-194 vs. WSH), SEATTLE (-288 vs. COL), SAN DIEGO (-114 vs. MIL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of the 2025 All-Star break, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): TORONTO, CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2 1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
— Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Since the beginning of the 2024 season, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-ATH

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 435-342 for +43.26 units and an ROI of 5.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-164 vs. PIT), MIAMI (+193 at PHI), SEATTLE (-288 vs. COL)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 208-154 for +19.87 units and an ROI of 5.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-120 at BAL), NY METS (-111 at CHC)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 130-167 for -34.39 units and an ROI of -11.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-101 vs. TB)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 357-311 but for -83.98 units and an ROI of -12.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-164 vs. BOS)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 390-328 record for +59.08 units and an ROI of 8.2% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-120 at BAL), PITTSBURGH (+134 at CIN), MINNESOTA (+112 at TEX)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1970-1855 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -247.38 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+134 at CIN), ATLANTA (-194 vs. WSH), ARIZONA (+133 vs. LAD)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,957-2,491 (44%) for -239.07 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-161 at CLE), NY METS (-111 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+186 at NYY), LA DODGERS (-163 at AZ)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,971-3,466 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -515.13 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-164 vs. BOS), ATLANTA (-194 vs. WSH), NY YANKEES (-232 vs. CWS), ARIZONA (+133 vs. LAD), SEATTLE (-288 vs. COL), SAN DIEGO (-115 vs. MIL), SAN FRANCISCO (-200 vs. STL)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 585-482 (54.8%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +32.35 units, for an ROI of 3%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-110 vs. NYM)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-21 (+10.01 units, ROI: 25.7%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 91-171 (-58.86 units, ROI: -22.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (-137 vs. MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 259-275 run (+9.53 units, ROI: 1.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-161 at CLE), TEXAS (-137 vs. MIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-110 vs. NYM)

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 77-63 (+18.60 units, ROI: 13.3%) in their last 140 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+193 at PHI), ATLANTA (-194 vs. WSH)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t typically score a lot of runs. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 180-143 (+15.79 units, ROI: 4.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-164 vs. PIT), MIAMI (+193 at PHI)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 33-66 (-6.94 units, ROI: -7%) in their last 99 tries.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+193 at PHI)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +193 (+32 diff), COLORADO +227 (+25), ST LOUIS +165 (+25), CLEVELAND +132 (+23), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +186 (+21), BALTIMORE -101 (+20)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SAN DIEGO -114 (+15 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MIN-TEX OVER 8 (+1.0)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-1.0), CWS-NYY UNDER 9 (-0.9), KC-LAA UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) PITTSBURGH (67-89) at (902) CINCINNATI (80-76)
Trend: PIT is 23-52 (-24.56 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+134 at CIN)

Trend: Brady Singer is 10-11 (-6.69 units) in his last 21 games as a favorite in -135 to -175 line range
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-164 vs. PIT)

(903) MIAMI (76-80) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (92-64)
Trend: MIA is 5-12 (-5.92 units) against teams with a >57% winning percentage with starter Edward Cabrera in the last four seasons
Trend: PHI is 21-1 (+19.20 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 winning percentage with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season (including 12-0 (+12.00 units) versus teams with a losing record)
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-240 vs. MIA)

Trend: Over the total is 26-17-1 (+7.30 units) when MIA faces left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-PHI (o/u at 8)

(907) NEW YORK-NL (80-76) at (908) CHICAGO-NL (88-68)
Trend: NYM is 5-11 (-6.99 units) on the road within line range -129 to +129 with starter David Peterson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-111 at CHC)

Trend: CHC is 15-26 (-10.81 units) on the run line vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+1.5 vs. NYM)

(909) MILWAUKEE (95-62) at (910) SAN DIEGO (86-71)
Trend: SD is 11-3 (+7.62 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-114 vs. MIL)

(911) LOS ANGELES-NL (88-68) at (912) ARIZONA (79-77)
Trend: LAD is 34-39 (-24.50 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-163 at AZ)

(913) ST LOUIS (77-80) at (914) SAN FRANCISCO (77-80)
Trend: Under the total is 58-42-2 (+11.80 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-SF (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: SF is 14-4 (+6.55 units) as a home night favorite of -160 or higher with starter Logan Webb in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-200 vs. STL)

(915) TAMPA BAY (76-80) at (916) BALTIMORE (73-83)
Trend: TB is 4-14 (-10.95 units) versus divisional opponents with starter Ryan Pepiot since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: BAL is 34-17 (+12.85 units) in its last 51 home games with starter Dean Kremer
Trend: BAL is 18-6 (+13.20 units) in its last 24 divisional games with starter Dean Kremer
Trends Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-101 vs. TB)

(917) DETROIT (85-71) at (918) CLEVELAND (84-72)
Trend: Tarik Skubal is 22-6 (+10.66 units) in his last 28 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-161 at CLE)

(919) CHICAGO-AL (58-98) at (920) NEW YORK-AL (88-68)
Trend: CWS is 87-60 (+14.88 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+1.5 at NYY)

(921) BOSTON (85-71) at (922) TORONTO (90-66)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 14-23 (-23.03 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-164 vs. BOS)

(923) MINNESOTA (67-89) at (924) TEXAS (79-77)
Trend: Under the total is 48-29-1 (+16.10 units) in Rangers home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-TEX (o/u at 8)

(929) COLORADO (43-113) at (930) SEATTLE (87-69)
Trend: Under the total is 44-29-2 (+12.10 units) in Rockies road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-SEA (o/u at 8)

Series #7: NY Mets at Chicago Cubs, Tue 9/23-Thu 9/25
Trend: NY METS are 9-11 (45%, -9.73 units) in their last 20 games vs. Chicago Cubs
— The ROI on this trend is -48.7%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-111 at CHC)

Series #18: Boston at Toronto, Tue 9/23-Thu 9/25
Trend: Underdogs are on a 26-11 (70.3%, +22.25 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
— The ROI on this trend is 60.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+134 at TOR)

Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NY METS 
Letdown after series vs. WASHINGTON: 12-21 (36.4%) -18.28 units, ROI: -55.4%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-111 at CHC)

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