Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, September 9, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Baltimore is 12-2 (+9.98 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against teams with a 47% or lower winning percentage in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-158 vs. PIT)
* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 160-206 for -47.95 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.9%.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-121 vs. KC)
* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 355-179 (66.5%) for +45.50 units and an ROI of 8.5%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-145 vs. AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 350-305 but for -83.10 units and an ROI of -12.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-157 vs. HOU)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 190-126 for +42.72 units, and an ROI of +13.5%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This has continually proven to be a good foundational angle to follow, as prices are typically not that high.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+129 at TOR)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 160-206 for -47.95 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.9%. FADE these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-121 vs. KC)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 320-194 for +15.51 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +3%. However, this angle has cooled off dramatically over the last few weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-195 vs. CIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-145 vs. AZ)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 132-241 for -33.00 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -8.8%.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+262 at LAD)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 106-51 for -8.49 units. We have been hovering the red for about a month now, like usual.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-195 vs. CIN)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a strong start, 121-42 for +15.61 units, an ROI of +9.6%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-337 vs. COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, bringing the season record to 399-426 for +41.88 units, ROI +5.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+129 at TOR), LA ANGELS (-101 vs. MIN), BOSTON (-110 at ATH), MILWAUKEE (-110 at TEX), ST LOUIS (+175 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. This year, they are 185-186 for +5.57 units (ROI 1.5%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 90-90, -4.16 units for the year.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games — TEXAS (-111 vs. MIL), MINNESOTA (-121 at LAA)
3 games — WASHINGTON (+101 at MIA), SEATTLE (-217 vs. STL)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In 2025, the teams with the worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games have gone just 172-225 for -13.31 units, an ROI of -3.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+129 at BAL), NY METS (+108 at PHI), COLORADO (+262 at LAD)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks in 2023, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 217-172 for +4.21 units (ROI 1.1%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-121 vs. KC), SAN DIEGO (-195 vs. CIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website before opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): MIAMI, MINNESOTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2 1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, MILWAUKEE, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: A unique system has developed since the start of last season, when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: A distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month has persisted since the beginning of the 2023 season.
Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Since the beginning of the 2024 season, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-ATH
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 350-305 but for -83.10 units and an ROI of -12.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-157 vs. HOU)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 425-404 (51.3%) for +26.27 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-120 vs. WSH), LA ANGELS (-101 vs. MIN), ATHLETICS (-110 vs. BOS)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,947-1,842 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -253.71 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-120 vs. KC), WASHINGTON (-101 at MIA), MINNESOTA (-121 at LAA), SAN FRANCISCO (-145 vs. AZ)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over the last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,941-2,451 (44.2%) for -211.55 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+129 at BAL), KANSAS CITY (-101 at CLE), NY METS (+108 at PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (-110 at ATL), HOUSTON (+129 at TOR), TAMPA BAY (-143 at CWS), MILWAUKEE (-110 at TEX), ST LOUIS (+167 at SEA), COLORADO (+262 at LAD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,927-3,433 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -518.14 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-120 vs. WSH), CLEVELAND (-120 vs. KC), TEXAS (-111 vs. MIL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+118 vs. TB), SAN FRANCISCO (-145 vs. AZ)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 579-481 (54.6%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.22 units, for an ROI of 2.6%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-132 vs. NYM)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 355-179 (66.5%) for +45.50 units and an ROI of 8.5%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-145 vs. AZ)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 324-287 (53%) for +23.97 units and an ROI of 3.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-120 vs. WSH)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +262 (+38 diff), MILWAUKEE -110 (+33), LA ANGELS -101 (+24), HOUSTON +129 (+19), ST LOUIS +175 (+17)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PHILADELPHIA -132 (+28 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.7), NYM-PHI OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BOS-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-1.0)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) NEW YORK-NL (76-68) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (84-60)
Trend: NYM is 31-41 (-17.50 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+108 at PHI)
(905) CHICAGO-NL (81-63) at (906) ATLANTA (65-79)
Trend: ATL is 51-52 (-30.73 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-111 vs. CHC)
(907) CINCINNATI (72-72) at (908) SAN DIEGO (79-65)
Trend: Under the total is 52-30-7 (+19.00 units) in Reds night games this season
Trend: Under the total is 53-38-3 (+11.20 units) in Padres night games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-SD (o/u at 7.5)
(909) ARIZONA (72-73) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (73-71)
Trend: Under the total is 17-5 (+11.55 units) when SF is favored with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-SF (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: SF is 18-5 (+14.42 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-145 vs. AZ)
(911) COLORADO (40-104) at (912) LOS ANGELES-NL (80-64)
Trend: LAD is 54-81 (-27.93 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs. COL)
(919) TAMPA BAY (71-72) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (55-89)
Trend: CWS is 81-55 (+16.31 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+1.5 vs. TB)
(921) MINNESOTA (64-80) at (922) LOS ANGELES-AL (67-77)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 5-22 (-16.46 units)
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (*if they fall into this line range, -101 currently*)
(925) PITTSBURGH (64-80) at (926) BALTIMORE (66-77)
Trend: PIT is 22-47 (-19.67 units) in road games this season
Trend: BAL is 12-2 (+9.98 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against teams with a 47% or lower winning percentage in his career
Trend: BAL is 13-5 (+7.55 units) against NL teams with start by Kyle Bradish (including 6-1 (+4.58 units) at home) in his career
Trends Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-158 vs. PIT)
(927) MILWAUKEE (89-56) at (928) TEXAS (75-70)
Trend: TEX is 5-13 (-8.14 units) when facing teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-111 vs. MIL)
Trend: Under the total is 46-26-1 (+17.40 units) in Rangers home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-TEX (o/u at 8.5)
(929) ST LOUIS (72-73) at (930) SEATTLE (76-68)
Trend: SEA is 38-71 (-27.35 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs. STL)
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Letdown after series vs. DETROIT: 10-23 (30.3%) -13.08 units, ROI: -39.6%
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+118 vs. TB)
