The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, August 27, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 340-366 but for +99.32 units and an ROI of 14.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+153 at TOR), PHILADELPHIA (+128 at NYM), CINCINNATI (+167 at LAD)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 140-196 for -54.62 units when not matched up against the same. Also, this angle is 37-64 for -24.09 units since the All-Star Break.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+143 at STL), LA ANGELS (+129 at TEX), SAN FRANCISCO (+108 vs CHC), ATHLETICS (+104 vs DET) 

Trend: Under the total is 38-17-4 (+19.30 units) when Baltimore is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-BAL (o/u at 9)

Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 22-4 (84.6%, +16.84 units) versus the Chicago White Sox
– The ROI on this trend is 64.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-132 at CWS)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 184-114 for +51.32 units, and an ROI of +17.2%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and since the All-Star break, it is 57-44 for +16.28 units.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-169 at CLE) 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 54-50 for -8.95 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -8.6% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): SEATTLE (-144 vs SD)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 140-196 for -54.62 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -16.3%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become as reliable as almost anything else in this report. This angle is 37-64 for -24.09 units since the All-Star Break
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+143 at STL), LA ANGELS (+129 at TEX), SAN FRANCISCO (+108 vs CHC), ATHLETICS (+104 vs DET)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 298-178 for +19.62 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +4.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-169 at CLE), HOUSTON (-311 vs COL)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 123-224 for -28.75 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -8.3%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+221 at NYY), COLORADO (+244 at HOU) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 97-46 for -6.18 units. We have been hovering the red for about three weeks now, like usual.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-280 vs WSH), LA DODGERS (-206 vs CIN) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a strong start, 113-38 for +16.10 units, an ROI of +10.7%.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-311 vs COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 75-31 for +6.13 units. Still, we remain very close to going into the usual negative territory.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-206 vs CIN) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. This season’s record stands at 371-391 for +41.56 units, ROI +5.5%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+102 vs ATL), SAN DIEGO (+119 at SEA), MINNESOTA (+153 at TOR), PHILADELPHIA (+129 at NYM), PITTSBURGH (+143 at STL), LA ANGELS (+129 at TEX), ATHLETICS (+104 vs DET) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 169-181 for -6.69 units (ROI -1.9%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 79-82, -7.46 units for the year.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – NY METS (-158 vs PHI)
3-games – SAN FRANCISCO (+108 vs CHC) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 154-206 for -15.31 units, an ROI of -4.3%. After a couple of rough weeks, this is now back at “average performing level” so we will continue to monitor it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+221 at NYY), ARIZONA (+118 at MIL), DETROIT (-126 at ATH) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and after a nice month-long run of +18.06 units, it is now 201-156 for +8.96 units (ROI 2.5%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-280 vs WSH), LA DODGERS (-206 vs CIN)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of the All-Star break, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): NY METS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, HOUSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO, HOUSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-TEX

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 382-395 but for +42.86 units and an ROI of 5.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+221 at NYY), ARIZONA (+119 at MIL), DETROIT (-131 at ATH) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 642-823 but for +46.09 units and an ROI of 3.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+117 at SEA), MINNESOTA (+153 at TOR), PHILADELPHIA (+128 at NYM), LA ANGELS (+129 at TEX), CINCINNATI (+167 at LAD) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 340-366 but for +99.32 units and an ROI of 14.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+153 at TOR), PHILADELPHIA (+128 at NYM), CINCINNATI (+167 at LAD) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 604-679 record, but for +48.93 units and an ROI of 3.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-169 at CLE), WASHINGTON (+221 at NYY), LA ANGELS (+129 at TEX), CINCINNATI (+167 at LAD) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 418-400 (51.1%) for +23.95 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.9%.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+102 vs ATL) 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1919-1821 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -258.05 units. This represents an ROI of -6.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-124 at MIA), MILWAUKEE (-145 vs AZ) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1920-2430 (44.1%) for -212.73 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-169 at CLE), WASHINGTON (+221 at NYY), CHICAGO CUBS (-131 at SF) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3891-3398 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -507.71 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-280 vs WSH), TORONTO (-187 vs MIN), NY METS (-156 vs PHI), MILWAUKEE (-145 vs AZ), TEXAS (-158 vs LAA), SEATTLE (-142 vs SD), SAN FRANCISCO (+108 vs CHC), LA DODGERS (-206 vs CIN), ATHLETICS (+107 vs DET) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 572-478 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +24.21 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+138 vs TB)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 249-255 run (+19.47 units, ROI: 3.9%).
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+221 at NYY)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND +138 (+45 diff), WASHINGTON +221 (+26), COLORADO +244 (+24), PHILADELPHIA +129 (+22), CINCINNATI +167 (+18), ATHLETICS +104 (+16)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KANSAS CITY -132 (+24 diff), SEATTLE -144 (+19), MILWAUKEE -145 (+18), BOSTON -143 (+15) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-CLE OVER 7 (+0.6), KC-CWS OVER 8.5 (+0.6), COL-HOU OVER 7.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: DET-ATH UNDER 11.5 (-1.0)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) ATLANTA (60-72) at (952) MIAMI (62-70)
Trend: ATL is 48-50 (-31.36 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend: MIA is 45-49 (+15.77 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+102 vs ATL) 

(953) PHILADELPHIA (76-56) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (71-61)
Trend: UNDER the total is 39-23-6 (+13.80 units) in Phillies’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYM (o/u at 8.5) 

(955) ARIZONA (64-69) at (956) MILWAUKEE (83-50)
Trend: Over the total is 12-3-2 (+8.60 units) when AZ is on the ROAD and faces teams with a >= 0.480 win pct with starter Ryne Nelson since the start of the 2024 season, going over the listed total by 3.00 runs on average
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-MIL (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: MIL is 45-22 (+16.05 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-145 vs AZ) 

(957) PITTSBURGH (58-75) at (958) ST LOUIS (65-68)
Trend: PIT is 19-45 (-21.61 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+143 at STL) 

(959) CINCINNATI (68-65) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (76-57)
Trend: Under the total is 48-27-6 (+18.40 units) in Reds’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-LAD (o/u at 8)

Trend: Nick Lodolo is 20-13 (+8.88 units) vs teams with a winning record in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+167 at LAD) 

(961) CHICAGO-NL (76-56) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (64-68)
Trend: Over the total is 25-15-3 (+8.50 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-SF (o/u at 8.5) 

(965) BOSTON (73-60) at (966) BALTIMORE (60-72)
Trend: BOS is 19-16 (+5.65 units) against divisional teams with starter Brayan Bello
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-143 at BAL)

Trend: UNDER the total is 38-17-4 (+19.30 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-BAL (o/u at 9) 

(967) MINNESOTA (60-72) at (968) TORONTO (77-56)
Trend: Under the total is 12-5 (+6.29 units) when MIN is a plus-money underdog with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-TOR (o/u at 9)

Trend: MIN is 8-17 (-12.91 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+153 at TOR)

(971) LOS ANGELES-AL (62-70) at (972) TEXAS (67-67)
Trend: Under the total is 43-24-1 (+16.60 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-TEX (o/u at 9) 

(975) WASHINGTON (53-79) at (976) NEW YORK-AL (72-60)
Trend: Under the total is 23-14-1 (+7.60 units) when WSH faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-NYY (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Max Fried is 10-3 (+4.85 units) in the last 13 starts against Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-280 vs WSH) 

(977) SAN DIEGO (75-58) at (978) SEATTLE (71-62)
Trend: Under the total is 34-17-2 (+15.30 units) when SD is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-SEA (o/u at 8)

Trend: SEA is 17-4 (+11.63 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-144 vs SD) 

(979) COLORADO (38-94) at (980) HOUSTON (72-60)
Trend: COL is 5-30 (-22.11 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+244 at HOU)

Series #8: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox, Mon 8/25-Wed 8/27
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 22-4 (84.6%, +16.84 units) versus the Chicago White Sox
– The ROI on this trend is 64.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-132 at CWS) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, August 28)

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