Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, July 30, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 255-129 for +48.76 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +12.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-171 at CIN), TEXAS (-126 at LAA), SEATTLE (-148 at ATH)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 17-5 (+14.23 units) in the last 22 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 vs PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a VERY good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 323-352 but for +91.41 units and an ROI of 13.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+101 at MIL), COLORADO (+158 at CLE), MIAMI (+123 at STL)
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 71-56 (+20.72 units, ROI: 16.3%) in their last 127 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-114 vs TOR)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 142-88 for +41.92 units, and an ROI of 18.2%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 vs PHI), TAMPA BAY (+118 at NYY)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 43-39 for -5.78 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -7% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): WASHINGTON (-101 at HOU)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 120-154 for -36.64 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.4%. fade these qualifiers almost anytime they come up.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-121 vs WSH)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 255-129 for +48.76 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +12.7%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-171 at CIN), TEXAS (-126 at LAA), SEATTLE (-148 at ATH)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 103-195 for -33.50 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.2%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+158 at CLE)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a strong start, 103-33 for +19.45 units, an ROI of 14.3%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-192 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 69-27 for +8.31 units. However, after a -2.91-unit week-and-a-half, we are closer again to going into the usual negative territory. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-192 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. That is happening big time, as we are well in the black with a season record of 301-305 for +40.65 units, ROI +6.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-110 at MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 vs PHI), ATLANTA (+108 at KC), PITTSBURGH (+176 at SF), TAMPA BAY (+118 at NYY)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 143-151 for -4.05 units (ROI -1.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 73-70, +1.08 units.
System Match (FADE): 3-games – LA ANGELS (+106 vs. TEX)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 164-121 for +16.96 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-124 vs TOR), DETROIT (-132 vs AZ), MILWAUKEE (-123 vs CHC), PITTSBURGH (+176 at SF), SAN DIEGO (-113 vs NYM)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): MILWAUKEE, NY METS, ST LOUIS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in ‘25. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in JULY games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and a ROI of -13.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY handle TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-CIN
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 368-378 but for +46.55 units and an ROI of 6.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-106 at BAL), ARIZONA (+112 at DET), SAN FRANCISCO (-218 vs PIT)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 614-795 but for +37.48 units and an ROI of 2.7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+112 at DET), CHICAGO CUBS (+101 at MIL), ATLANTA (+108 at KC), PITTSBURGH (+176 at SF), COLORADO (+158 at CLE), MIAMI (+123 at STL)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a VERY good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 323-352 but for +91.41 units and an ROI of 13.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+101 at MIL), COLORADO (+158 at CLE), MIAMI (+123 at STL)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 582-654 record but for +50.85 units and a ROI of 4.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-106 at BAL), ARIZONA (+112 at DET), COLORADO (+158 at CLE), CHICAGO CUBS (+101 at MIL), WASHINGTON (-101 at HOU), NY METS (-108 at SD), SEATTLE (-148 at ATH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1872-1777 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -249.14 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-136 vs AZ), CLEVELAND (-194 vs COL), KANSAS CITY (-131 vs ATL), MILWAUKEE (-123 vs CHC)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,868-2,370 (44.1%) for -208.00 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-106 at BAL), ARIZONA (+112 at DET), NY METS (-108 at SD), SEATTLE (-148 at ATH)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3788-3323 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -516.34 units and a ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-136 vs AZ), CLEVELAND (-194 vs COL), NY YANKEES (-143 vs TB), KANSAS CITY (-131 vs ATL), MINNESOTA (-119 vs BOS), MILWAUKEE (-123 vs CHC), HOUSTON (-121 vs WSH), LA ANGELS (+106 vs TEX), SAN DIEGO (-113 vs NYM), ATHLETICS (+122 vs SEA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 558-468 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +24.92 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-150 vs MIA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 241-249 run (+17.84 units, ROI: 3.6%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-218 vs PIT)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 71-56 (+20.72 units, ROI: 16.3%) in their last 127 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-114 vs TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 165-127 (+18.64 units, ROI: 6.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-114 vs TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 30-63 (-9.19 units, ROI: -9.9%) in their last 93 tries.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+176 at SF)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PITTSBURGH +176 (+21 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: KANSAS CITY -131 (+16 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-MIN OVER 8 (+0.7), CHC-MIN OVER 7 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-BAL UNDER 10 (-0.6), SEA-ATH UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), NYM-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) CHICAGO-NL (62-45) at (952) MILWAUKEE (64-43)
Trend: MIL is 14-5 (+7.20 units) vs Chicago teams (CHC/CWS) with starter Freddy Peralta in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-123 vs CHC)
(953) PITTSBURGH (46-62) at (954) SAN FRANCISCO (54-54)
Trend: Under the total is 45-28-2 (+14.20 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-SF (o/u at 7)
(955) NEW YORK-NL (62-46) at (956) SAN DIEGO (59-49)
Trend: SD is 25-13 (+11.49 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+1.5 vs NYM)
(959) MIAMI (51-55) at (960) ST LOUIS (55-54)
Trend: MIA is the most profitable team to bet as a ML underdog this season (39-41 record, +15.97 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+123 at STL)
(961) TORONTO (63-46) at (962) BALTIMORE (50-58)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 12-2 (+10.48 units) vs Baltimore in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-108 at BAL)
Trend: BAL is 18-5 (+14.41 units) in the last 23 divisonal games with starter Dean Kremer
Trend: BAL is 33-14 (+14.89 units) in the last 2+ seasons in home games with starter Dean Kremer
Trends Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-112 vs TOR)
(963) BOSTON (58-51) at (964) MINNESOTA (51-56)
Trend: MIN has been bad in day games this season (21-31, -18.30 units)
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-110 vs BOS)
(965) TAMPA BAY (54-54) at (966) NEW YORK-AL (58-49)
Trend: Under the total is 39-24-4 (+12.60 units) in Rays’ night games this season
Trend: Under the total is 32-21 (+8.90 units) in Yankees’ home games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-NYY (o/u at 9)
(967) TEXAS (56-52) at (968) LOS ANGELES-AL (53-55)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 27-10 (+17.06 units) in the last 37 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-126 at LAA)
(969) SEATTLE (57-51) at (970) ATHLETICS (47-63)
Trend: Over the total is 9-4 (+4.57 units) in the last 13 games when SEA is a road favorite with starter Bryan Woo
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-ATH (o/u at 9.5)
(971) ARIZONA (51-57) at (972) DETROIT (63-46)
Trend: Over the total is 11-3-1 (+7.60 units) when AZ is on the road and faces teams with a >= 0.480 win percentage with starter Ryne Nelson since the start of the 2024 season, going over the listed total by 3.03 runs on average
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-DET (o/u at 9)
(973) WASHINGTON (44-63) at (974) HOUSTON (61-47)
Trend: WSH is 50-30 (+12.88 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-1.5 at HOU)
(975) ATLANTA (45-61) at (976) KANSAS CITY (53-55)
Trend: ATL is the worst team to bet on the road this season (19-35 record, -26.55 units)
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+108 at KC)
(977) PHILADELPHIA (61-46) at (978) CHICAGO-AL (39-69)
Trend: Under the total is 33-18-4 (+13.20 units) in Phillies’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-CWS (o/u at 9)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 17-5 (+14.23 units) in the last 22 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 vs PHI)
(979) COLORADO (28-79) at (980) CLEVELAND (53-54)
Trend: COL is 3-25 (-19.90 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend: COL is 10-25 (-8.38 units) in the last 35 road games with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+158 at CLE)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, July 31)
