Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, September 3, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 340-372 but for +93.32 units and an ROI of 13.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+112 at AZ), BALTIMORE (+138 at SD), ATLANTA (+128 at CHC)
Trend: PHI is 11-26 (-13.84 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-106 at MIL)
* Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 422-402 (51.2%) for +25.93 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-101 vs NYM), MINNESOTA (-183 vs CWS)
* Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 230-150 in their last 380 tries (+36.42 units, ROI: 9.6%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+118 vs SEA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 186-120 for +46.20 units, and an ROI of +15.1%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-110 at STL)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 57-55 for -13.27 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -11.8% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): SEATTLE (-143 at TB)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 149-201 for -49.66 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.2%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+144 at KC), HOUSTON (+108 vs NYY)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 311-186 for +19.65 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +4%. However, this angle has cooled off dramatically over the last few weeks.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-207 at COL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 126-236 for -36.28 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10%! We pushed over the -10% mark after a 2-11 for -5.62 units week.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+113 vs MIA), COLORADO (+168 vs SF)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 118-39 for +18.71 units, an ROI of +11.9%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-207 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. We gained +2.3 units last week to bring the season record to 385-417 for +35.48 units, ROI +4.4%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-101 vs NYM), TEXAS (+107 at AZ), PITTSBURGH (+147 vs LAD), TAMPA BAY (+118 vs SEA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+149 at MIN), ATHLETICS (-110 at STL), HOUSTON (+108 vs NYY)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 178-184 for -0.65 units (ROI -0.2%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – WASHINGTON (+113 vs MIA), NY METS (-121 at DET), BALTIMORE (+138 at SD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 163-219 for -16.9 units, an ROI of -4.4%.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+127 at BOS)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and it is now 211-166 for +5.47 units (ROI 1.5%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-155 vs CLE), TAMPA BAY (+118 vs SEA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+149 at MIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-207 at COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): NY METS, ARIZONA, ATHLETICS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in ’25, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, TEXAS, SAN DIEGO, TORONTO, ST LOUIS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up and down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the ’23 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-AZ
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 386-399 but for +44.21 units and an ROI of 5.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+127 at BOS), SAN DIEGO (-168 vs BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 645-834 but for +39.22 units and an ROI of 2.7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+112 at AZ), BALTIMORE (+138 at SD), CLEVELAND (+127 at BOS), ATLANTA (+128 at CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 340-372 but for +93.32 units and an ROI of 13.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+112 at AZ), BALTIMORE (+138 at SD), ATLANTA (+128 at CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 607-685 record but for +45.70 units and an ROI of 3.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-137 at WSH), TEXAS (+112 at AZ), ATLANTA (+128 at CHC), ATHLETICS (-110 at STL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 422-402 (51.2%) for +25.93 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-101 vs NYM), MINNESOTA (-183 vs CWS)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1934-1831 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -253.56 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-121 at DET), BOSTON (-155 vs CLE), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+149 at MIN), PITTSBURGH (+147 vs LAD), PHILADELPHIA (-108 at MIL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1930-2440 (44.2%) for -211.32 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-137 at WSH), ATHLETICS (-110 at STL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3911-3417 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -514.38 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-101 vs NYM), CINCINNATI (+133 vs TOR), BOSTON (-155 vs CLE), WASHINGTON (+113 vs MIA), TAMPA BAY (+118 vs SEA), ARIZONA (-136 vs TEX), PITTSBURGH (+147 vs LAD), MILWAUKEE (-113 vs PHI)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 576-479 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.63 units, for an ROI of 2.5%.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+108 vs NYY)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 320-284 (53%) for +23.01 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-101 vs NYM)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 230-150 in their last 380 tries (+36.42 units, ROI: 9.6%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+118 vs SEA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CINCINNATI +133 (+18)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO -207 (+23 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -157 (+21), BOSTON -155 (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CWS-MIN OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-DET UNDER 9 (-0.5), TEX-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.5), LAA-KC UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) MIAMI (65-74) at (902) WASHINGTON (55-83)
Trend: MIA is 1-9 (-10.73 units) as a short favorite (within line range of -115 to -140) with starter Eury Perez since 2023
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-137 at WSH)
Trend: WSH is 5-1 (+5.69 units) in divisional day games with starter Mitchell Parker since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+113 vs MIA)
(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (78-60) at (904) PITTSBURGH (62-77)
Trend: LAD is just 31-34 (-20.15 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-180 at PIT)
(905) ATLANTA (62-77) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (80-59)
Trend: ATL is 29-44 (-23.79 units) on the ROAD this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+128 at CHC)
(907) PHILADELPHIA (80-58) at (908) MILWAUKEE (85-54)
Trend: PHI is 11-26 (-13.84 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-106 at MIL)
(909) SAN FRANCISCO (70-69) at (910) COLORADO (39-100)
Trend: Under the total is 55-36-2 (+15.40 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend: Under the total is 17-4 (+12.65 units) when SF is favored with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-COL (o/u at 11)
Trend: SF is 7-0 (+9.00 units) in road night games with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: SF is 17-5 (+13.42 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-207 at COL)
(913) SEATTLE (73-66) at (914) TAMPA BAY (69-69)
Trend: SEA is 21-9 (+6.51 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-143 at TB)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 8-19 (-8.57 units) as a night underdog of +100 or worse in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+118 vs SEA)
(915) LOS ANGELES-AL (65-73) at (916) KANSAS CITY (70-68)
Trend: LAA has been solid in night games this season (51-47, +15.81 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+149 at KC)
(919) NEW YORK-AL (77-61) at (920) HOUSTON (76-63)
Trend: Under the total is 40-30-3 (+7.00 units) in Astros’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-HOU (o/u at 9)
(921) NEW YORK-NL (75-64) at (922) DETROIT (80-60)
Trend: NYM is 30-37 (-13.70 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-121 at DET)
Trend: DET is 15-6 (+8.94 units) in day game starts with Casey Mize since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-101 vs NYM)
(923) TEXAS (72-68) at (924) ARIZONA (69-71)
Trend: TEX is 17-34 (-14.76 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+112 at AZ)
(925) BALTIMORE (63-76) at (926) SAN DIEGO (76-63)
Trend: Under the total is 42-25-3 (+14.60 units) in Orioles’ road games this season
Trend: Under the total is 31-11 (+18.90 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-SD (o/u at 8)
Trend: Nestor Cortes is 13-5 (+5.33 units) at home in day games in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-168 vs BAL)
(927) TORONTO (80-59) at (928) CINCINNATI (70-69)
Trend: Shane Bieber is 13-3 (+9.73 units) in his last 16 starts vs NL Central/West teams
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-164 at CIN)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Mon 9/1-Wed 9/3
Trend: Colorado is 9-33 (21.4%, -19.07 units) in their last 42 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -45.4%
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+168 vs SF)
Series #21: NY Yankees at Houston, Tue 9/2-Thu 9/4
Trend: The YANKEES are on an 11-3 (78.6%, +8.58 units) run versus Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is 61.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-131 at HOU)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, September 5)
